SOME APPLICATIONS OF EXPONENTIAL AND LOGISTIC GROWTH MODELS IN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
Year 2021,
Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 6 - 17, 31.12.2021
Elçin Gökmen
,
Firdevs Tuba Mavi
Abstract
The use of mathematics for predicting and analyzing the future has long been a subject of study due to the fact that it is a measurable source. Correct estimation is vital for the business world and its economic society. In this study, by employing the exponential growth model and the logistic and generalized logistic models, we estimate the size of the population of Turkey, the international investment position and the level of the national income per person in 2025. Furthermore, we examine the changes in sales of houses and the number of mobile phone subscribers in Turkey. We use GeoGebra program to determine the constants and use the computer algebraic system Maple 15 for other computations and graphs
Thanks
The authors are grateful to the referees and the editor for a careful checking of the details and for helpful comments that improved this paper.
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Year 2021,
Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 6 - 17, 31.12.2021
Elçin Gökmen
,
Firdevs Tuba Mavi
References
- Pearl, R., The Natural History of Population, Oxford University Press, 1939.
- Kot, M., Elements of Mathematical Ecology, 11–12, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
- Verhulst, P.F., "Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement", Correspondance Mathematique et Physique, 10, 113–121, 1838.
- Hubbert, M.K., Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. Drilling and production practice, American Petroleum Institute, 1956.
- Daim, T., Harell, G., Hogaboam, L., " Forecasting renewable energy production in the US", Foresight, 14, 225–241, 2012.
- Höök, M., Aleklett, K., "Trends in US recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks", National Resour Res., 19, 189–208, 2010.
- Harris, M. T. et all "Logistic growth curve modeling of US energy production and consumption", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 96, 46-57, 2018.
- Trappey, C. V., Wu, H. Y., "An evaluation of the time-varying extended logistic, simple logistic, and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles", Advanced Engineering Informatics, 22, 421–430, 2008.
- McGowan, I., "Note the use of growth curves in forecasting market development", Journal of Forecasting, 5(1), 69-71, 1986.
- Miranda, L.C.M., Lima, C.A.S., "On the logistic modeling and forecasting of evolutionary processes: Application to human population dynamics" Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77, 699–711, 2010.
- Liu, M., Udhe-Stone, C. and Goudar, C. T., " Progress curve analysis of qRT-PCR reactions using the logistic growth equation", Biotechnology Progress, 27 (5), 1407-1414, 2011.
- Auffhammer, M., Carson, R.T., " Forecasting the path of China’s CO2 emissions using province-level information", Journal of Environ. Econ. Manage, 55 (3), 229–247, 2008.
- Chitnis, M., Hunt, L.C., "What drives the change in UK household energy expenditure and associated CO2 emissions? Implication and forecast to 2020", Applied Energy, 94, 202–214, 2012.
- Suarez, R.P. Menendez, A.J.L., "Growing green? Forecasting CO2 emissions with Environmental Kuznets Curves and Logistic Growth Models", Environmental Science & Policy, 54, 428–437, 2015.
- Jha A., Saha, D., "Forecasting and analyzing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 152, 119885, 2020.
- Ramos, R.A., "Logistic Function as a Forecasting Model: It.s Application to Business and Economics", International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 2(3), 29-36, 2012.
- Kwasnicki, W., "Logistic growth of the global economy and competitiveness of nations", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80, 50–76, 2013.
- Perrote, E. O., Some Simple Mathematical Models Of Tumor Growth, Barcelona, 2015.
- Dinler, Z., Introduction to Economics, 13th edition, Ekin, Bursa, 586, 2007.
- GeoGebra for Teaching and Learning Math [0nline], Available: https://www.geogebra.org.