THE IMPACT OF COVID‐19 ON THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR: THE CASE OF THE TURKISH CONSULTANCY COMPANY

Year 2024, Issue: 716, 432 - 461, 03.10.2024

Eda Gözütok , Ilayda Ulku

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented changes in the global economy and society, with many studies attempting to understand the impact of the virus on different countries and industries. This study focuses on the effects of COVID-19 on a consulting company that specializes in technology services. By analyzing the company's sales data for the five-year period before the pandemic, and using machine learning techniques via the KNIME platform, the study aims to predict the sales data for the COVID-19 period. Three different regression models - linear, gradient boosting, and random forest - were used to make these predictions, and the models were compared based on their coefficient of determination (R2) to determine which model performed best. The chosen model was then used to interpret the impact of COVID-19 on the company. The findings of the study provide insights into how COVID-19 has affected the consulting company. The chosen model showed that the pandemic had a significant negative impact on the company's sales, with a sharp decline in the second quarter of 2020. However, the company was able to recover some of its losses by the fourth quarter of the year. The study also highlights the importance of using machine learning techniques to predict future sales data during unpredictable events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this study sheds light on the impact of COVID-19 on a technology consulting company and demonstrates the importance of using data analysis and machine learning techniques to make predictions and interpret the effects of significant events on business operations.

Keywords

COVID-19, machine learning, regression models, KNIME, forecasting

COVİD-19'UN TEKNOLOJİ SEKTÖRÜNE ETKİSİ: BİR DANIŞMANLIK ŞİRKETİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

COVID-19 salgını, dünya genelinde benzeri görülmemiş bir etki yaratmıştır; hem ekonomik hem de sosyal açıdan büyük değişimlere neden olmuştur. Bu salgının farklı ülkeler ve endüstriler üzerindeki etkisini anlamak için birçok çalışma yapılmıştır. Bu çalışma ise, teknoloji hizmetleri alanında uzmanlaşmış bir danışmanlık firmasının COVID-19'un etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Çalışma kapsamında, şirketin pandemi öncesine ait beş yıllık satış verileri incelenmiş ve bu veriler üzerinden KNIME platformu aracılığıyla makine öğrenimi teknikleri kullanılarak COVID-19 dönemine ilişkin satış verilerinin tahmini amaçlanmıştır. Bu tahminler için üç farklı regresyon modeli (doğrusal, gradyan artırma ve random forest) kullanılmış ve bu modellerin performansı, belirleme katsayılarına (R2) göre karşılaştırılmıştır. Seçilen model daha sonra, COVID-19'un şirket üzerindeki etkilerini yorumlamak için kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın bulguları, COVID-19'un danışmanlık şirketini nasıl etkilediğine dair derinlemesine içgörü sağlamaktadır. Seçilen model, salgının şirketin satışları üzerinde önemli bir olumsuz etki yarattığını ve özellikle 2020 yılının ikinci çeyreğinde sert bir düşüş yaşandığını göstermiştir. Ancak, şirket yılın dördüncü çeyreğine doğru kayıplarının bir kısmını telafi etmeyi başarmıştır. Çalışma ayrıca, COVID-19 salgını gibi öngörülemeyen olaylar sırasında gelecekteki satış verilerini tahmin etmek için makine öğrenimi tekniklerinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Genel olarak, bu çalışma, bir teknoloji danışmanlık şirketi üzerinde COVID-19'un etkilerine dair önemli bilgiler sunmakta ve iş operasyonları üzerindeki etkileri tahmin etmek ve yorumlamak için veri analizi ve makine öğrenimi tekniklerinin değerini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

COVID-19, makine öğrenimi, regresyon modelleri, KNIME, tahmin

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