Abstract
İki ülke mallarının göreli fiyatını gösteren reel döviz kuru, ihracat ve ithalatın en önemli belirleyicilerinden biridir. Kuramsal olarak, rekabetçi bir döviz kurunun ihracatı ve dolayısıyla üretimi tetikleyerek işsizlik oranında bir azalmaya neden olduğu kabul edilir. Türkiye ekonomisinde son on yılda yüksek büyüme rakamlarına rağmen işsizlik oranında kayda değer bir azalış olmamasının bir nedeni olarak döviz kurundaki gelişmeler gösterilebilir. Türkiye’de reel döviz kurunun işsizlik üzerindeki etkisini 2003:1-2012:3 dönemi için analiz etmeye çalıştığımız bu çalışmada, reel döviz kuru ile işsizlik arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, yüksek istihdam ve büyüme gibi amaçlara ulaşmada izlenecek döviz kuru politikalarının önemini ortaya koymaktadır.
Keywords
References
- BALASSA, B. “Trade Policies in Developing Countries”, American Economic Review, 1971, 61(2), p.178-187.
- BALAYLAR, Nilgün Acar., “ Reel Döviz Kuru İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayi Örneği”, Sosyo Ekonomi, 2011-2/110207.
- BİLGİN, Mehmet Hüseyin., “ Döviz Kuru İşsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (8) 2004/2:80-94.
- DAMILL, M., FRENKEL R., and MAURIZIO, R. Argentina: A Decade of Currency Board. An Analysis of Growth, Employment and Income Distribution,
- Employment Paper, 2002,No. 2002/42, Geneva, International Labour Organisation. DIAZ, Alejandro., A note On the Impact of Devaluation and Redistributive Effects”, Journal of Political Economy, 1963, pp.577-580.
- FRENKEL, Roberto ve ROS, Jaime., “Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate in Latin America”, World Development, 2006, Vol 34, No.4, pp.631-646.
- HUA, Ping., “Real Exchange Rates and Manifacturing Employment in China”, < http://www.cerdi.org/uploads/ed/2005/2005.28.pdf>, 13.03.2013
- KRUGMAN, P.& TAYLOR, L., “Contractionary Effects of Devaluation”, Journal Of International Economics, 1978, 8(August), 445-456
- POLTEROVICH, V. And POPOV,V. “ Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth”, 2002, Moscow, Russia: New Economic School.
- RODRIK,D., “ Growth Strategies”, NBER Working Paper, 2003, 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, USA.
- WILLIAMSON, J., “Exchange Rate policy and development”, Paper prepared for the International Policy Dialogue (IPD) Capital Market Liberalization Task Force, Colombia University, 2003, Barcelona, Spain,June 2-3
- WOO, W.T., “Missed growth goes to Washington: the poor and the brightest”, prepared for the conference Stability, Growth and The Search For a new Development Agenda: Reconsidering the Washington Consensus, 2004, FONDAD,Santiago, March 29-30
Abstract
Real Exchange rate which gives the relative price of domestic and foreign goods is one of the main determinants of the export and import. Theoretically, it is accepted that a competitive exchange rate leads to a decrease in unemployment rate by encouraging export and consequently the production. Despite the high growht rates of Turkish economy in the past decade, there has been no significant decline in unemployment rates. One reason for that might be related with the exchange rate levels. In this paper, it is aimed to investigate the impact of real exchange rate on unemployment for Turkish economy over the period of 2003-2012. Our empirical findings suggest that there is a negative relationship between the real exchange rate and unemployment. This evidence highlights the importance of exchange rate policies in order to achieve high employment and growth
References
- BALASSA, B. “Trade Policies in Developing Countries”, American Economic Review, 1971, 61(2), p.178-187.
- BALAYLAR, Nilgün Acar., “ Reel Döviz Kuru İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayi Örneği”, Sosyo Ekonomi, 2011-2/110207.
- BİLGİN, Mehmet Hüseyin., “ Döviz Kuru İşsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (8) 2004/2:80-94.
- DAMILL, M., FRENKEL R., and MAURIZIO, R. Argentina: A Decade of Currency Board. An Analysis of Growth, Employment and Income Distribution,
- Employment Paper, 2002,No. 2002/42, Geneva, International Labour Organisation. DIAZ, Alejandro., A note On the Impact of Devaluation and Redistributive Effects”, Journal of Political Economy, 1963, pp.577-580.
- FRENKEL, Roberto ve ROS, Jaime., “Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate in Latin America”, World Development, 2006, Vol 34, No.4, pp.631-646.
- HUA, Ping., “Real Exchange Rates and Manifacturing Employment in China”, < http://www.cerdi.org/uploads/ed/2005/2005.28.pdf>, 13.03.2013
- KRUGMAN, P.& TAYLOR, L., “Contractionary Effects of Devaluation”, Journal Of International Economics, 1978, 8(August), 445-456
- POLTEROVICH, V. And POPOV,V. “ Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth”, 2002, Moscow, Russia: New Economic School.
- RODRIK,D., “ Growth Strategies”, NBER Working Paper, 2003, 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, USA.
- WILLIAMSON, J., “Exchange Rate policy and development”, Paper prepared for the International Policy Dialogue (IPD) Capital Market Liberalization Task Force, Colombia University, 2003, Barcelona, Spain,June 2-3
- WOO, W.T., “Missed growth goes to Washington: the poor and the brightest”, prepared for the conference Stability, Growth and The Search For a new Development Agenda: Reconsidering the Washington Consensus, 2004, FONDAD,Santiago, March 29-30
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | March 14, 2015 |
| Submission Date | March 14, 2015 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2013 Volume: 34 Issue: 1 |
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