Uzaktan Algılama Yağış Verileri Yardımıyla Kuraklık Aşma Olasılığı İndeksi’ni (KAOİ) Kullanarak Konya İli Kuraklık Analizi

Year 2025, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 309 - 321, 31.08.2025

Fatih Karaçor , Emre Topçu

Abstract

Kuraklık hem çevre hem de insan hayatı için riskler oluşturan, yeri ve süresi konusunda belirsizlikle karakterize edilen iklimsel bir fenomendir. Son analizler, çeşitli matematiksel yöntemler ve teknolojideki ilerlemeler kullanılarak farklı zaman dilimlerinde kuraklıklar üzerinde gerçekleştirilebilir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin Konya İlinde belirlenen 31 gözlem noktası üzerinde bir kuraklık analizi yapmak üzere tasarlanmıştır. Analiz edilen veriler, Mart 2000'den Şubat 2025'e kadar kaydedilen aylık toplam yağış değerlerini içermekte olup, bu veriler PERSIANN sistemi (Yapay Sinir Ağları kullanarak Uzaktan Algılama ile Yağış Tahmini) kaynaklıdır. Belirlenen noktalar için aylık yağış toplamları, Kuraklık Aşma Olasılığı İndeksi (KAOİ) için girdi parametreleri olarak kullanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, 2006 yılı, özellikle Konya İli genelinde, şiddetli kuraklık koşullarıyla yaşanırken, 2019 yılı ise ıslaklık koşullarıyla karakterize edilmiştir. Islak koşulların daha sık karşılaşıldığı ve bu durumun yüzde 50,17'lik bir sıklık değeriyle belirlendiği gösterilmiştir.

Keywords

Kuraklık , Kuraklık aşma olasılığı indeksi (KAOİ) Konya ili , Türkiye , Su yönetimi

Drought Analysis of Konya Province using Drought Exceedance Probability Index (DEPI) with Remote Sensing Precipitation Data

Abstract

Drought is a climatic phenomenon that poses risks to both the environment and human life. It is characterised by uncertainty regarding its location and duration. Recent analyses of droughts can be conducted over various timeframes using a range of mathematical methods and advancements in technology. The present study is designed to conduct a drought analysis across 31 specified observational points within Konya Province, Türkiye. The data set under scrutiny encompasses monthly total precipitation values recorded from March 2000 to February 2025, obtained from the PERSIANN system (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks). The monthly precipitation totals from the designated points were then used as input parameters for the Drought Exceedance Probability Index (DEPI). The findings indicate that the year 2006 was marked by severe drought conditions, particularly in the region encompassing Konya Province, while 2019 was characterised by wet conditions. The analysis revealed that wet circumstances were encountered more frequently, with a frequency value of 50.17%.

Keywords

Drought , Drought Exceedance Probability Index (DEPI) , Water Management.

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