Mersin Bölgesi Rüzgar Hız Verilerinin Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Analizi ve Uygulanabilirliği

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 39 - 51, 01.06.2020

Mustafa Akkaya , Aytaç Gültekin , Kadir Sabancı , Selami Balcı , Hakan Sağlam

https://doi.org/10.17100/nevbiltek.691120

Cited By: 2

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Mersin-Mut bölgesinde
yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları ile bir evin ısıtma ve elektrik sistemlerine
enerji sağlanabilmesi için rüzgar hızı verileri analiz edilmiştir. Bölgedeki üç
yıllık rüzgar hızı verileri Türkiye Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’nden
alınmıştır. İncelenen bölge için 28 günlük rüzgar hızı verileri kullanılarak
yapay sinir ağları ile yıllık tahmin gerçekleştirilmiştir. Rüzgar verilerinin
bir kısmı yapay sinir ağının eğitimi için, bir kısmıda test işlemi için
kullanılmıştır. Yapay sinir ağı modelinde gizli katmandaki nöron sayıları
değiştirilerek en başarılı model elde edilmiştir. Gizli katmanda sekiz nöron
kullanılarak yapılan analizde, en düşük MAE ve RMSE hata değerleri
hesaplanmıştır. Nöron sayısı sekiz iken, MAE ve RMSE değerleri sırasıyla 0.4056
ve 0.5403 olarak elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, bu bölge için rüzgar verilerinin WAsP
yazılımı ile analiz çalışmaları da gerçekleştirilmiştir. Böylece, analiz
çalışmalarına göre ortalama anlık rüzgar hızı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları, Rüzgar Enerjisi, YSA, RMSE, MAE

Teşekkür

Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü

Analysis and Applicability of Mersin Region Wind Speed Data with Artificial Neural Networks

Öz

In this study, wind speed data were analyzed
in order to provide energy to the heating and electrical systems of a house
with renewable energy sources in Mersin-Mut region. Three-year wind speed data
is taken from the Turkey General Directorate of Meteorology in the region.
Annual estimation was made with artificial neural networks using 28-day wind
speed data for the studied area. Some of the wind data were used for training
of the neural network, and some were used for testing. In the artificial neural
network model, the most successful model was obtained by changing the number of
neurons in the hidden layer. In the analysis made using eight neurons in the
hidden layer, the lowest MAE and RMSE error values ​​were calculated. While the
number of neurons was eight, MAE and RMSE values ​​were obtained as 0.4056 and
0.5403, respectively. In addition, analysis of wind data with WAsP software has
been carried out for this region. Thus, the average instantaneous wind speed
was determined according to the analysis studies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Renewable Energy Sources, wind energy, YSA, RMSE, MAE

Kaynakça

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