SEÇİLİ GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKELERDE COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN FİNANSAL PİYASALAR ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Year 2022, , 293 - 308, 31.03.2022

Ayhan Kuloğlu

https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.914921

Abstract

Covid-19 pandemisinin, benzeri görülmemiş bir salgın ve yetersiz veri olmasından dolayı yapılan çalışmalar virüsün derinliği ve uzunluğu hakkında yeterince öngörüde bulunamamaktadırlar. Hükümetler tarafından alınan önlemler ve sağlık koşullarının bozulması nedeniyle salgın koşulları başta üretim, dağıtım ve tedarik zincirleri olmak üzere tüm sektörleri etkilemiştir. Salgından en hızlı etkilenen kesim finansal piyasalardır. Bu çalışma, 3 Şubat 2020- 20 Eylül 2021 tarihleri arasında günlük verileri kullanarak Covid-19 vakaları ve CDS primlerinin borsa endeksleri üzerindeki etkileri incelemiştir. Sonuç olarak, seçili ülkelerde (İngiltere, Fransa ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri) Covid-19 vakaları ve CDS primleri borsa endeksleri üzerinde negatif etki göstermektedir. Covid-19 vakalarının borsa endeksleri üzerinde etkisinin en yüksek olduğu ülke İngiltere’dir. Risk pirimlerinin borsa endeksleri üzerinde en düşük olduğu ülke İngiltere ve en yüksek olduğu ülke Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’dir. Daha da çarpıcı olan, salgının belirsizliğinden kaynaklı CDS primlerinin borsa getirileri üzerindeki negatif etkisi Covid-19 vakalarından daha güçlüdür. Dolayısıyla, hükümetler finansal piyasalarda pandemi kaynaklı belirsizliğin azaltılması yönünde politikalar geliştirmelidir.

Keywords

Covid-19, Borsa Getirileri, CDS Primleri

THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON FINANCIAL MARKETS ON SELECTED DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Abstract

Studies cannot provide adequate predictions regarding the depth and length of the Covid-19 virus because the Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented epidemic in terms of the lack of data gathered so far. The measures taken by governments and the deterioration of human health condition have affected all sectors; especially production, distribution and supply chains. The sector most severely inflicted by the epidemic is the financial markets. This study examined the effects of Covid-19 cases and CDS (Credit Default Swap) premiums on financial markets benefitting from the daily data collected between February 3, 2020 and September 20, 2021. As a result, it was seen that Covid-19 cases and CDS premiums posed a negative impact on stock market indices in selected countries (England, France and the United States). The country with the highest impact of Covid-19 cases on stock market indices is England. The country with the lowest CDS premiums on stock market indices is England and the country with the highest is the United States. More strikingly, the negative impact posed by CDS premiums on stock market returns due to the uncertainty of the epidemic was analyzed to be stronger than that posed by Covid-19 cases. Thus, governments should develop policies to reduce pandemic-induced uncertainty in the financial markets.

Keywords

Covid-19, Stock Markets Returns, Credit Default Swap

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