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AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ’NİN DEMOGRAFİK DEĞİŞİM ANALİZİ VE GELECEK PROJEKSİYONLARI

Year 2020, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 187 - 202, 22.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.656477

Abstract

Avrupa Birliği, 2018 demografik verilerine göre 28 üye devlete sahip olan ve 512.379.225 nüfuslu uluslararası bir kuruluştur. Birliğin nüfusu genel olarak yıllar içerisinde artmıştır. Ancak yeni sosyolojik araştırmalar, Avrupa Birliği’nin demografik bir dönüşüm problemiyle karşı karşıya kalacağını göstermektedir. Avrupa kıtasının nüfus yapısının olumsuz yönde değişmeye başladığı anlaşılmaktadır. Özellikle Batı Avrupa’nın dünyanın en yaşlı nüfusa sahip bölgelerinden biri olduğu bilinmektedir. Bu makale, AB'nin 1960'dan 2100'e kadarki demografik değişimini; nüfus, doğurganlık, beklenen yaşam süresi ve gelecek projeksiyonları gibi bazı önemli faktörler açısından analiz edecektir. Bu sorunun çözümü için de bazı öneriler değerlendirilecektir.

References

  • (2002). World Population Ageing: 1950–2050, United Nations, New York: United Nations Population Division.
  • Bijak, J., Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M., Saczuk K., and Kicinger A. (2007). Population and Labour Force Projections for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052: Impact of International Migration on Population Ageing, European Journal of Population, 23, 1–31.
  • Cicioğlu, F. ve Kalkan D. (2019). De Gaulle’den Frexit Tartışmalarına: Fransa Avrupa Birliği’nin Neresinde?. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 1-38.
  • Coleman, D. (2006). Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition, Population and Development Review, 32(3), 401-446.
  • Cruijsen, H., Eding, H., and Gjaltema, T. (2002). “Demographic consequences of enlargement of the European Union with the 12 Candidate Countries”, Division of Social and Spatial Statistics, Statistics Netherlands, 1-63.
  • European Parliament Briefing. (2015). EU Demographic Indicators, March 2015, pp. 1-10. Retrieved July 10, 2019 from the http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/551335/EPRS_BRI(2015)551335_EN.pdf.
  • Eurostat. (2018). Enlargement Countries - Population Statistics, September 2018, Retrieved July 14, 2019 from the http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Enlargement_countries_-_population_statistics.
  • Eurostat. (2018). Enlargement Countries: Demographic Statistics, Retrieved July 16, 2019 from the http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4031688/7101418/KS-04-15-589-EN-N.pdf/063d451e-c7ca-471e-a84c-da6896b655d1.
  • Eurostat. (2018). People in the EU–Population Projections, 2018, Retrieved June 16, 2019 from the http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/People_in_the_EU_%E2%80%93_population_projections.
  • Giannakouris, K. (2008). Ageing Characterises the Demographic Perspectives of the European Societies, Eurostat Statistics in Focus, (72), 1-12.
  • Hoßman, I. et.al. (2008). Europe’s Demographic Future: Growing Imbalances, Berlin: The Berlin Institute for Population and Development.
  • Içduygu, A. (2006). Türkiye-Avrupa Birliği İlişkileri Bağlamında Uluslararası Göç Tartışmaları, İstanbul: Türk Sanayicileri ve İşadamları Derneği.
  • Ilgar, I. (2008). Yaşlı Adam Avrupa, İstanbul: IQ Kültür Sanat Yayıncılık.
  • Jimeno, J. F. (2004). Demographic Change, Immigration, and the Labour Market: A European Perspective, FEDEA, (18), 1-37.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. (2000). Europe’s Demographic Issues: Fertility, Household Formation and Replacement Migration, Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat, New York.
  • Linz, K. and Stula S. (2010). Demographic Change in Europe - An Overview, Institut für Sozialarbeit und Sozialpädagogik, 1-18.
  • Lisiankova, K. and Wright R. E. (2005). Demographic Change and the European Union Labour Market, National Institute Economic Review, (194), 74-81.
  • Lutz, W., O'Neill B. C. and Scherbov S. (2003). Europe's Population at a Turning Point, Science, 299(5615), 1991-1992.
  • Muenz, R. (2007). Aging and Demographic Change in European Societies: Main Trends and Alternative Policy Options, Hamburg Institute for International Economics, Discussion Paper No. 0703.
  • The European Commision. (2014). The 2015 Ageing Report, Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies, European Economy Series, Economic and Financial Affairs.
  • The World Factbook. (2019). Country Comparison: Population, 2019, Retrieved June 12, 2019 from the https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html.
  • Uçak, H. (2011). Turkey’s Population Dynamics as a Candidate Country for EU Membership, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 1(4), 180-198.
  • Walker, A. and Maltby T. (2012). Active Ageing: A Strategic Policy Solution to Demographic Ageing in the European Union, International Journal of Social Welfare, 21, 117-130.
  • Yılmaz Akın, B. G. (2008). Yaşlanan Avrupa Birliği, Ed. Akçay, B., Kahraman, S. ve Baykal S., Avrupa Birliği’nin Güncel Sorunları ve Gelişmeler, Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık, 149-184.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS

Year 2020, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 187 - 202, 22.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.656477

Abstract

The European Union is an international organization which has 28 member states and 512.379.225 population according to the demographic data of 2018. The population of the Union has generally increased through the years. But new sociological researches show that the European Union will face a demographic change problem. The population structure of the European population has begun to change in a negative manner. Now it is well-known that especially Western Europe is one of the world’s oldest populations. This paper will analyze the demographic change of the EU from 1960 to 2100 in a manner of some important factors such as population, fertility, life expectancy, and future projections. In order to solve this problem, some suggestions will be analyzed.

References

  • (2002). World Population Ageing: 1950–2050, United Nations, New York: United Nations Population Division.
  • Bijak, J., Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M., Saczuk K., and Kicinger A. (2007). Population and Labour Force Projections for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052: Impact of International Migration on Population Ageing, European Journal of Population, 23, 1–31.
  • Cicioğlu, F. ve Kalkan D. (2019). De Gaulle’den Frexit Tartışmalarına: Fransa Avrupa Birliği’nin Neresinde?. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 1-38.
  • Coleman, D. (2006). Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition, Population and Development Review, 32(3), 401-446.
  • Cruijsen, H., Eding, H., and Gjaltema, T. (2002). “Demographic consequences of enlargement of the European Union with the 12 Candidate Countries”, Division of Social and Spatial Statistics, Statistics Netherlands, 1-63.
  • European Parliament Briefing. (2015). EU Demographic Indicators, March 2015, pp. 1-10. Retrieved July 10, 2019 from the http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/551335/EPRS_BRI(2015)551335_EN.pdf.
  • Eurostat. (2018). Enlargement Countries - Population Statistics, September 2018, Retrieved July 14, 2019 from the http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Enlargement_countries_-_population_statistics.
  • Eurostat. (2018). Enlargement Countries: Demographic Statistics, Retrieved July 16, 2019 from the http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4031688/7101418/KS-04-15-589-EN-N.pdf/063d451e-c7ca-471e-a84c-da6896b655d1.
  • Eurostat. (2018). People in the EU–Population Projections, 2018, Retrieved June 16, 2019 from the http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/People_in_the_EU_%E2%80%93_population_projections.
  • Giannakouris, K. (2008). Ageing Characterises the Demographic Perspectives of the European Societies, Eurostat Statistics in Focus, (72), 1-12.
  • Hoßman, I. et.al. (2008). Europe’s Demographic Future: Growing Imbalances, Berlin: The Berlin Institute for Population and Development.
  • Içduygu, A. (2006). Türkiye-Avrupa Birliği İlişkileri Bağlamında Uluslararası Göç Tartışmaları, İstanbul: Türk Sanayicileri ve İşadamları Derneği.
  • Ilgar, I. (2008). Yaşlı Adam Avrupa, İstanbul: IQ Kültür Sanat Yayıncılık.
  • Jimeno, J. F. (2004). Demographic Change, Immigration, and the Labour Market: A European Perspective, FEDEA, (18), 1-37.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. (2000). Europe’s Demographic Issues: Fertility, Household Formation and Replacement Migration, Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat, New York.
  • Linz, K. and Stula S. (2010). Demographic Change in Europe - An Overview, Institut für Sozialarbeit und Sozialpädagogik, 1-18.
  • Lisiankova, K. and Wright R. E. (2005). Demographic Change and the European Union Labour Market, National Institute Economic Review, (194), 74-81.
  • Lutz, W., O'Neill B. C. and Scherbov S. (2003). Europe's Population at a Turning Point, Science, 299(5615), 1991-1992.
  • Muenz, R. (2007). Aging and Demographic Change in European Societies: Main Trends and Alternative Policy Options, Hamburg Institute for International Economics, Discussion Paper No. 0703.
  • The European Commision. (2014). The 2015 Ageing Report, Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies, European Economy Series, Economic and Financial Affairs.
  • The World Factbook. (2019). Country Comparison: Population, 2019, Retrieved June 12, 2019 from the https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html.
  • Uçak, H. (2011). Turkey’s Population Dynamics as a Candidate Country for EU Membership, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 1(4), 180-198.
  • Walker, A. and Maltby T. (2012). Active Ageing: A Strategic Policy Solution to Demographic Ageing in the European Union, International Journal of Social Welfare, 21, 117-130.
  • Yılmaz Akın, B. G. (2008). Yaşlanan Avrupa Birliği, Ed. Akçay, B., Kahraman, S. ve Baykal S., Avrupa Birliği’nin Güncel Sorunları ve Gelişmeler, Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık, 149-184.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehlika Özlem Ultan 0000-0002-0718-9083

Publication Date June 22, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 10 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ultan, M. Ö. (2020). AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ’NİN DEMOGRAFİK DEĞİŞİM ANALİZİ VE GELECEK PROJEKSİYONLARI. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 10(1), 187-202. https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.656477