ÜLKELERİN GELİŞMİŞLİK SEVİYESİ OPTİMAL KAMU BÜYÜKLÜĞÜNÜ NASIL ETKİLEMEKTEDİR: PANEL DATA ANALİZİ İLE UYGULAMALI BİR ÇALIŞMA

Year 2021, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 391 - 405, 30.03.2021

Rıza Bayrak

https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.870485

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın ana amacı kamu harcamalarının optimal bir değerinin olup olmadığı; varsa bunun ülkelerin gelişmişlik seviyesine göre değişip değişmediğini test etmektir. Bu araştırma soruları, Armey Eğrisi yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bağımlı değişkeni ekonomik büyüme oranı; bağımsız değişkenleri ise kamu harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki payı, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve işsizliktir. 2008 Küresel Finansal Krizin etkilerini de yansıtmak amacıyla da kukla değişken kullanılmıştır. Veriler Dünya Bankası veri tabanından temin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 21 ülkeye ait 1990-2019 dönemi verileri, AMG Panel Veri Analizi yardımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre; İspanya, Meksika ve Kolombiya hariç diğer 18 ülkede optimal kamu harcaması değerinin varlığı doğrulanmıştır. Bununla birlikte gelişmiş ülkelerde optimal kamu büyüklüğü ortalamasının GDP’nin %30.67’si, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise bu değerin %25.43 olduğu gözlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar Wagner (1882)’in savı ve Keynesyen görüş ile tutarlılık içinde olup; ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyi arttıkça, iktisadi yapı içinde kamu büyüklüğünün artığını söylemek mümkündür.

Keywords

Büyüme, Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu, Kamu Harcamaları, Armey Eğrisi, AMG Panel Veri Analizi

HOW DOES THE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF COUNTRIES AFFECT OPTIMAL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY WITH PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

The aim of this study is to clarify whether there is optimal government size; if there is, to determine whether it changes according to the development level of the countries. Estimations for these research questions were analyzed with the help of the Armey Curve. The economic growth rate was used as a dependent variable; while the annual public expenditure ratio in national income, gross fixed capital formation, unemployment rate were used as independent variables and additionally the effects of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as a dummy variable. The data were obtained from the World Bank database. 21 countries' data for the period 1990-2019 were analyzed with AMG Panel Data. According to the findings obtained from the study; the existence of optimal public expenditure value has been confirmed in 18 countries except for Spain, Mexico, and Colombia. It has been observed that the optimal public size average is 30.67% in developed countries and 25.43% in developing countries. These results are consistent with Wagner's (1882) argument and Keynesian view. It is possible to say that as the development level of the countries increases, accordingly the public size within the economic structure increases.

Keywords

Growth, Gross Fixed Capital Stock, Public Spendimg, Armey Curve, AMG Panel Data Analysis

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