CIVETS ülkelerinde uluslararası işçi döviz gelirleri ve finansal gelişme ilişkisi: Panel kantil regresyon yaklaşımından kanıtlar

Year 2024, Volume: 14 Issue: 4, 1843 - 1858

Orhan Cengiz , Ömer Demir , Şahin Nas

https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1465388

Abstract

Uluslararası işçi dövizleri, gelişmekte olan ülkeler için çok önemli finansal kaynaklardır. Küreselleşme sayesinde uluslararası işçi dövizleri dünya çapında artmış ve finansal gelişmenin itici gücü haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışma, 2000-2022 döneminde Kolombiya, Endonezya, Vietnam, Mısır, Türkiye ve Güney Afrika'yı içeren CIVETS ülkeleri için uluslararası işçi dövizlerinin finansal gelişme üzerindeki rolünü araştırmaktadır. Genelleştirilmiş panel kantil regresyon sonuçları, uluslararası işçi dövizlerinin Q06 kantili hariç tüm kantillerde finansal gelişmeyi pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ticari dışa açıklık tüm kantillerde finansal gelişme üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahiptir. Ayrıca, ekonomik büyüme Q01-Q05 kantillerinde finansal gelişmeyi pozitif yönde; Q09 kantilinde ise negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Ancak, doğrudan yabancı yatırımın finansal gelişme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur. Ayrıca, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik sonuçları, finansal gelişmeden ticari açıklığa doğru tek yönlü ve finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik bulgular, uluslararası işçi dövizlerinin CIVETS ülkelerinde finansal gelişmeyi teşvik ettiğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle işçi dövizlerinin finansal sektöre çekilmesi CIVETS ülkeleri için kritik önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

Uluslararası işçi dövizleri, Finansal gelişme, Panel Kantil, CIVETS Ülkeleri

The international remittances and financial development nexus in CIVETS countries: Evidence from a panel quantile regression approach

Abstract

International remittances are crucial financial sources for developing countries. Thanks to globalization, international remittances flows have increased worldwide and become the driving force of financial development. This paper investigates the role of international remittances on financial development for CIVETS countries, including Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkiye, and South Africa, over the period 2000-2022. The generalized panel quantile regression results indicate that international remittances positively affect financial development (FD) in all quantiles except the Q06 quantile. Trade openness (TO) has a positive effect on FD in all quantiles. Furthermore, economic growth contributes to FD in the Q01-Q05 quantiles and negatively affects in the Q09 quantile. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) has no statistically significant effect on financial development. In addition, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality results show a one-way causality relationship running from FD to TO and a two-way causality between FD and economic growth. Empirical findings demonstrate that international remittances promote FD in CIVETS countries. Therefore, attracting remittances into the financial sector is crucial for CIVETS countries.

Keywords

International Remittances, Financial Development, Panel Quantile, CIVETS Countries

References

• Abdulai, A. M. (2023). The impact of remittances on economic growth in Ghana: an ARDL bound test approach. Cogent Economics & Finance,, 11(2), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2243189
• Adekunle, I. A., Tella, S. A., Subair, K., & Adegboyega, S. B. (2022). Remittances and financial development in Africa. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2545
• Aggarwal, R., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Pería, M. S. (2011). Do remittances promote financial development?. Journal of Development Economics, 96(2), 255-264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.10.005
• Akçay, S. (2020). Remittances and financial development in Bangladesh: substitutes or complements?. Applied Economics Letters, 27(14), 1206-1214. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1676376
• Akçay, S., & Karabulutoğlu, E. (2021). Do remittances moderate financial development–informality nexus in North Africa?. African Development Review, 33(1), 166-179. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12502
• Alawneh, A. M. (2020). Relationship between workers' remittances and money supply from 2000 to 2018: using the vector autoregression model. International Journal of Business and Management, 15(2), 92-104. ijbm.ccsenet.org
• Allen, K. (2011). The Civets: a guide to the countries bearing the world's hopes for growth. Retrieved March 25, 2024, from The Gurdian: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/nov/20/civets-guide
• Alshubiri, F., & Jamil , S. (2023). Do international paid remittances hinder the financial development of GCC host countries?. International Journal of Emerging Markets. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-02-2022-0292
• Ashraf, S., Jithin , P., Skander , S., & Najeeb, R. (2023). Global value chains and economic complexity index: evidence from generalized panel quantile regression. Economic Analysis and Policy, 80, 247-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.08.003
• Azizi, S. (2020). Impacts of remittances on financial development. Journal of Economic Studies, 47(3), 467-477. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2019-0045
• Baltagi, B. H., Feng, Q., & Kao, C. (2012). A lagrange multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model. Journal of Econometrics, 170(1), 164-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004
• Basnet, H. C., Koirala, B., Upadhyaya, K. P., & Donou-Adonsou, F. (2021). Workers’ remittances and financial development: the case of South Asia. International Review of Economics, 68, 185-207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12232-020-00359-5
• Bettin, G., & Zazzaro, A. (2012). Remittances and financial development: substitutes or complements in economic growth? Bulletin of Economic Research, 64(4), 509-536. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2011.00398.x
• Bhattacharya, M., Inekwe, J., & Paramati, S. R. (2018). Remittances and financial development: empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel of countries. Applied Economics, 50(38), 4099-4112. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1441513
• Bindu, S., Sridharan, P., Swain, R. K., & Das, C. P. (2022). Causal linkage between remittances and financial development: evidence from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Journal of East-West Business, 28(2), 117-149. https://doi.org/10.1080/10669868.2021.1976348
• Biyase, M., & Naidoo, Y. (2023). The Symmetric and asymmetric effect of remittances on financial development: evidence from South Africa. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010026
• Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
• Brown, R. P., Carmignani, F., & Fayad, G. (2013). Migrants’ remittances and financial development: macro- and micro-level evidence of a perverse relationship. The World Economy, 36(5), 636-660. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12016
• Dam, M. M., & Gökbunar, A. R., Yıldız, B., & Bulut, Ş. (2022). Influence of foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in newly industrialized countries: a panel ARDL-PMG approach. Environmental Engineering & Management Journal, 21(5), 745-756.
• Das, A., & McFarlane, A. (2022). Non-linear relationship between remittances and financial development in Jamaica. International Migration, 60(3), 242-260. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12911
• Donou-Adonsou, F., Pradhan, G., & Basnet, H. C. (2020). Remittance inflows and financial development: evidence from the top recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Applied Economics, 52(53), 5807-5820. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1776834
• Elmonshid, L. B. E., Sayed, O. A., Awad-Yousif, G. M., Eldaw, K. E. H. I., & Hussein, M. A. (2024). The impact of financial efficiency and renewable energy consumption on CO2 emission reduction in GCC economies: a panel data quantile regression approach. Sustainability, 16, 6242. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16146242
• Fromentin, V. (2017). The long-run and short-run impacts of remittances on financial development in developing countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 66, 192-201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.02.006
• Fromentin, V. (2018). Remittances and financial development in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: a dynamic approach. Review of Development Economics, 22(2), 808-826. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12368
• Haouas, I., Khraief, N., Cooray, A., & Onifade, S. T. (2022). Exploring the time-varying causal nexuses between remittances and financial development in MENA region. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2022.2112139
• Hussaini, N., Musa, I., & Muhammad, D. (2021). Impact of remittances on Nigerian financial sector development: an ARDL approach. Gusau International Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(2), 130-149.
• Ikpesu, O. (2023). Does financial market development really drive migrant remittances’ flow in Sub-Saharan Africa? International Journal of Social Economics. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0361
• Irandoust, M. (2021). FDI and financial development: evidence from eight post-communist countries. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 45(2), 102-116. https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2021.1978859
• Kacou, K. Y., Kassouri, Y., Alola, A. A., & Altuntaş, M. (2022). Examining the sustainable development approach of migrants' remittances and financial development in sub-Saharan African countries. Sustainable Development, 30(5), 804-816. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2273
• Kakhkharov, J. (2018). Finance and financial planing: remittances and financial development in transition economies. Working Paper 2018/03. Australia: Griffith University. https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/390491/2018-03-remittances-and-financial-development-in-transition-economies.pdf
• Kakhkharov, J., & Rohde, N. (2020). Remittances and financial development in transition economies. Empirical Economics, 59, 731-763. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01642-3
• Karikari, N. K., Mensah, S., & Harvey, S. K. (2016). Do remittances promote financial development in Africa?. SpringerPlus, 5, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2658-7
• Keho, Y. (2024). Impact of remittances on domestic investment in West African countries: the mediating role of financial development. SN Business & Economics, 4(20), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546- 023-00621-2
• Khodeir, A. N. (2015). Migration remittances inflows and macroeconomic shocks: the case of Egypt. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(4), 1001-1010. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31971/352233
• Kim, J. (2019). The impact of remittances on exchange rate and money supply: does “openness” matter in developing countries?. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(15), 3682-3707. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1547963
• Kim, J. (2021). Financial development and remittances: the role of institutional quality in developing countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 386-407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.005
• Koenker, R., & Jr. Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
• Martinez, C., Cummings, M. E., & Vaaler, P. M. (2015). Economic informality and the venture funding impact of migrant remittances to developing countries. Journal of Business Venturing, 30, 526-545.
• Mushi, H. M. (2024). Analyzing the impact of remittance inflows on Tanzania’s social development and economic growth. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2345298
• Nzama, L., Sithole, T., & Kahyaoglu, S. B. (2023). The impact of government effectiveness on trade and financial openness: the generalized quantile panel regression approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16010014
• Otchere, I., Soumaré, I., & Yourougou, P. (2016). FDI and financial market development in Africa. The World Economy, 39(5), 651-678.
• Özyakışır, D., Akça, M., & Çamkaya, S. (2023). Do remittances have an asymmetrical effect on financial development?. Empirical evidence from Turkey. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2023.2203784
• Özyılmaz, A., Toprak, M., & Bayraktar, Y. (2021). The effect of international remittances on financial development: Turkish experience in the period of 1974-2019. Sosyoekonomi, 29(49), 181-198. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.09
• Pal, S. (2023). Does remittance and human capital formation affect financial development? A comparative analysis between India and China. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 30, 387-426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-022-09380-w
• Pal, S., & Mahalik, M. K. (2024). Determinants of financial development in top and bottom remittances and FDI inflows recipient developing regions-how does institutional quality matter?. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01772-9
• Pandikasala, J., Vyas, I., & Mani, N. (2020). Do financial development drive remittances? Empirical evidence from India. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2269
• Payne, J. E., Truong, H. H., Chu, L. K., Doğan, B., & Ghosh, S. (2023). The effect of economic complexity and energy security on measures of energy efficiency: evidence from panel quantile analysis. Energy Policy, 177, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113547
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. Germany: the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). Retrieved from https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Prempeh, K. B., Kyeremeh, C., & Danso, F. K. (2023). The link between remittance inflows and financial development in Ghana: substitutes or complements? Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2237715
• Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of Financial Economics, 69, 5-50. doi:10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
• Ratha, D., Chandra, V., Kim, E. J., Plaza, S., & Shaw, W. (2023). Leveraging diaspora finances for private capital mobilization. Washington, DC.: World Bank. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/migration-and-development-brief-39-leveraging-diaspora-finances-private-capital-mobilization-december-2023
• Rehman, N. U., & Hysa, E. (2021). The effect of financial development and remittances on economic growth. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1932060. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1932060
• Saleem, K., Al-Hares, O., & Ahmed, S. (2016). Financial integration and portfolio diversification: evidence from CIVETS stock markets. Theoretical Economics Letters, 6, 1304-1314. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.[phone]
• Sharma, G. (2016). Effects of remittances on economic growth, poverty alleviation and financial development. Nepalese Journal of Finance, 3(3), 65-78.
• Williams, K. (2016). Remittances and financial development: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. African Development Review, 28(3), 357-367. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12202
• World Bank (2024). World Development Indicators. Retrieved March 25, 2024, from The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/
• Yıldız, G. A. (2020). The effect of remittances on financial development in developing countries: dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of Finance, 178, 98-114.