Az Örneklemli Yüksek Hızlı Demiryolu Etcs Bileşen Verileriyle Gürbüz Ömür Süresi Tahmini

Abstract

Demiryolu sistemlerinin bakımı ve işletme verimliliği, güvenli bir demiryolu trafiği için önemlidir. Tren veya demiryolu sistemindeki çeşitli bileşenlerde beklenmeyen bir arıza meydana geldiğinde, demiryolu trafiğinin tamamen durmasına yol açabilecek bir zorunlu bakım gerektirebilir. Bu makalede, Türkiye'deki arıza kayıtları verilerinin istatistiksel analizine dayalı olarak sık aralıklarla arızalanan bazı yüksek hızlı demiryolu ekipmanlarının rassal arıza modeli incelenmiştir. Verilerin küçük örneklem hacmine sahip olması ve aykırı değerler içerebilme durumları da dikkate alınarak yaygın olarak kullanılan dağılım fonksiyonları ve parametre tahmin teknikleri uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada, az sayıda arıza verisi durumunda, aykırı değer olmadığında L-momentler yönteminin ve aykırı değer veya aykırı değerler olduğunda ise gürbüz-M yönteminin etkili sonuçlar verdiği gösterilmiştir.

Keywords

• Ömür süresi tahmini
• Bileşen güvenilirliği
• Küçük örneklem
• Tahmini bakım
• ETCS sinyalizasyon bileşenleri

Robust Lifetime Estimation with Small Sample Sized High Speed Railway ETCS Component Data

Abstract

Railway maintenance and efficient operation has been an important issue for a safe rail traffic. When an unexpected malfunction occurs on various components on the train or on the railway system, it may result in unscheduled maintenance which may cause the rail traffic to stop. In this paper, we study the random failure model of some frequently malfunctioning high-speed railway equipment based on the statistical analysis of the real data of failure records in Turkey. Popular distribution functions and parameter estimation methods have been used considering that the data has a small sample size, and it may contain outliers. In this study, we showed that for the case of a few numbers of failure data, the L-moments method gives effective results when there exists no outlier and the robust-M method gives effective results when there exists an outlier or outliers.

Keywords

• lifetime estimation
• materials reliabilitiy
• small sample
• predictive maintenance
• ETCS signaling component

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