ACADEMIC PROGRESS OF STUDENTS IN QUANTITATIVE COURSES AT NIGDE UNIVERSITY VOCATIONAL SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES: A PREDICTION USING MARKOV MODEL

Year 2016, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 267 - 276, 28.07.2016

Can Mavruk , Ersin Kıral

Abstract

This study analyzes and predicts the academic progress of vocational school of social sciences students in quantitative courses in order to improve student progress in education. A population of 232 students taking commercial mathematics and statistics courses in 2014/2015 academic year is selected. The academic progress of students are estimated by using final examination scores extracted from OGRIS student otomation system of Nigde University. Academic progress is classified with respect to the mean test score as “greater”, “stable” and “lower”. Chi-square test is used for statistical analysis and predictions are estimated by one step stochastic Markov chain model. Direction of academic progress is predicted by the product of the initial probability matrix and transition probability matrix. In 2028-2029 academic year, the probabilities of improvement,  no change and decline become stable approximately at 28%, 20% and 52%, respectively. The results are discussed and interpreted.

Keywords

Sayısal Yöntemler, Ak ademik Performans, Geçiş Olasılık ları Matrisi, Mark ov Analizi

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