DÜNYADA CARİ DENGESİZLİKLERİN SON 40 YILI: KRİZLERİN VE DIŞ TİCARET HESABININ ROLÜ

Abstract

Küreselleşme ile birlikte 1980’li yıllardan sonra ülkelerin sermaye akımları önündeki engelleri kaldırması sonucunda yaşanan yüksek sermaye girişleri, ülkelerin daha rahat borçlanabilmesine imkân sağlamıştır. Bunun sonucunda ise birçok ülkede cari açıklar süreklilik kazanmaya başlamıştır. Özellikle 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren giderek büyüyen ve sürekli hale gelen cari açıklar, politika yapıcıların ve iktisatçıların dikkatini çekmiş ve cari açıkların sürdürülebilir olup olmadığı konusunu gündeme getirmiştir. İktisatçılar arasında cari açığın sürdürülebilirliğinin tespitine yönelik bir fikir birliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı betimsel analiz yöntemleriyle dünyada ve seçili ülke/ülke gruplarında cari dengenin yıllara göre seyrini incelemek, küresel ve bölgesel krizlerin cari dengeye etkisini görmek ve cari açık/fazla veren ülkelerde bu açık/fazlanın sebeplerini irdelemektir.

Keywords

• Cari İşlemler Hesabı
• Cari Açık
• Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği
• Dış Ticaret Hesabı
• Betimsel Analiz

THE LAST 40 YEARS OF CURRENT IMBALANCES IN THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF CRISES AND TRADE BALANCE

Abstract

With the effect of globalization, after the 80s, the high capital inflows experienced as a result of the elimination of obstacles to capital flows, enabled countries to borrow more easily. As a result, current account deficits started to gain continuity in many countries. Especially starting with the 90s, the current account deficits, which have been growing and becoming permanent, attracted the attention of policy makers and economists and brought up the issue of whether current account deficits are sustainable or not. Although there is no consensus among economists regarding the determination of the sustainability of the current account deficit, it has been observed in the literature that the subject is addressed with econometric methods. The purpose of this study is to present a different view by examining the current account balance in the world and selected country / country groups historically, to see the effect of global and regional crises on the current account balance and to examine the reasons of this imbalances with descriptive analysis.

Keywords

• Current Account
• Current Account Deficit
• Sustainability of Current Account Deficit
• International Trade of Goods and Services
• Descriptive Analysis

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