Renewable Energy in Turkish Economic Growth: Current Situation, Future Prospects, Employment and Investment Opportunities

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3, 2327 - 2350, 30.11.2022

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1103005

Öz

Energy is one of the significant factors of economic growth and development. Accelerating technological developments in the global world has increased energy consumption. Nowadays, renewable alternative energy sources are high on the agenda due to the limited energy resources. This study aims to predict the future of the global energy consumption and world energy distribution scenario and to reveal investment opportunities and employment results in Turkey, using the projections of the current situation and future expectations. For this purpose, the relevant data obtained from the Enerdata database for the world energy distribution in the period of 2000-2050, specific to Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, North America, Latin America, CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), and the Pacific, were compared, and the situation of Turkey in this process has been analyzed descriptively with specific indicators. According to the results, although renewable energy production investments have increased in Turkey, oil, natural gas, and coal still occupy a considerable place in the total energy supply, and the share of renewable resources such as wind and sun is very insufficient and should increase gradually. However, it has been found that the part of renewable energy sources in electricity production and primary energy consumption would rise and provide new employment opportunities with technological developments. The results are expected to provide fruitful information to policymakers, project developers, investors, industries, and relevant stakeholders.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, RenewableEnergy, Employment, Investment, Scenarios

Türkiye Ekonomik Büyümesinde Yenilenebilir Enerji: Mevcut Durum, Gelecek Beklentileri, İstihdam ve Yatırım Fırsatları

Öz

Enerji ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmanın gerekli ve önemli faktörlerinden birisidir. Küreselleşen dünyada teknolojik gelişme hızının artması enerji tüketimini artırmıştır. Enerji kaynaklarının sınırlı olması nedeniyle alternatif kaynak olarak yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarını gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada küresel enerji tüketimi ve dünya enerji dağılımının gelecek senaryo tahmini ile birlikte Türkiye’nin mevcut durumu ve gelecek beklentileri projeksiyonlarla yansıtılarak yatırım fırsatları ve istihdama ilişkin sonuçların ortaya koyulması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla Enerdata veri tabanından 2000-2050 dönemine ilişkin dünya enerji dağılımı için Avrupa, Asya, Afrika, Ortadoğu, Kuzey Amerika, Latin Amerika, BDT (Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu) ve Pasifik özelinde ilgili veriler karşılaştırılmış ve Türkiye’nin bu süreçteki durumu belli göstergeler eşiğinde betimsel olarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de yenilenebilir enerji üretimine yönelik yatırımların artmasıyla, toplam enerji arzında petrol, doğal gaz ve kömürün önemli bir yer işgal ettiği, ancak rüzgâr, güneş gibi yenilenebilir kaynakların payının çok az olduğu ve giderek artacağı yönde bulgular tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının elektrik üretiminde ve birincil enerji tüketiminde payının giderek artacağı ve teknolojik gelişmelerle yeni istihdam olanakları sağlayacağı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonuçların politika yapıcılar, proje geliştiriciler, yatırımcılar, endüstriler ve ilgili paydaşlara faydalı bilgiler sağlayacağı beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Yenilenebilir Enerji, istihdam, Yatırım, Senaryolar

Kaynakça

• Güner, E., & Turan , E. (2017). Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynaklarının Küresel İklim Değişikliği Üzerine Etkisi. Journal of Natural Hazards and Environment, 3(1), 48-55. Apergıs , N., & Payne , J. (2009). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Central America: Evidence from A Panel Cointegration and Error Correction Model. Energy Economics. 31, 211-216.
• Apergis , N., & Salim , R. (2015). Renewable energy consumption and unemployment: Evidence from a sample of 80 countries and NonLinear estimates. Applied Economics, 47 (52), 5614-5633.
• Apergis , N., & Salim, R. (2015). Renewable Energy Consumption and Unemployment: Evidence from A Sample of 80 Countries and Nonlinear Estimates. Applied Economics, 47 (52), 5614-5633.
• Ari, I., & Yikmaz , R. (2019). The role of renewable energy in achieving Turkey's INDC. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 105, 244-251.
• Bayraç, H., & Çildir, m. (2017). AB Yenilenebilir Enerji Politikalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi(201), 201-212.
• Bekmez , S., & Ağpak , F. (2016). Non-Hydro renewable energy and employment: A Bootstrap panel causality analysis for countries with different income levels. Journal of Business and Economic Policy, 3(1), 32-45.
• Bulavskaya, T., & Reynès , F. (2017). Job Creation and Economic Impact of Renewable Energy in The Netherlands. Renewable Energy, 119, 528-538.
• Chang , Y., Lee, J., & Yoon , H. (2010). Alternative projection of the world energy consumption-in comparison with the 2010 international energy outlook. Energy Policy, 50, 154-160.
• Chaudry , M., Raza , R., & Hayat , S. (2009). Renewable energy technology in Pakistan: prospects and challenges. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13 , 1657-1662.
• Çınar , S., & Yılmazer , M. (2015). Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynaklarının Belirleyicileri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Örneği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 30 (1), 55-78.
• DAKA. (2009). Güneş Enerjisi Sektör Raporu. https://www.kalkinmakutuphanesi.gov.tr
• Djanibekov , U., & Gaur , V. (2018). Nexus of Energy Use, Agricultural Production, Employment and Incomes Among Rural Households in Uttar Pradesh, India. Energy Policy, 113, 439-453.
• Enerji Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı. (2022). EİGM Rapoları. https://enerji.gov.tr/eigm-raporlari adresinden alındı
• Erdin , C., & Ozkaya , G. (2019). Turkey’s 2023 Energy Strategies and Investment Opportunities for Renewable Energy Sources: Site Selection Based on ELECTRE. Sustainability, 11, 2-23.
• Estaban , M., Zhang, Q., & Utama , A. (2012). Estimation of the Energy Storage Requirement of a Future 100% Renewable Energy System in Japan. Energy Policy, 47, 22-31.
• European Commission. (2019). Energy projections for African countries. JRJ Technical Report. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc adresinden alındı
• Fankhauser , S., Sehlleier , F., & Stern, N. (2008). Climate Change, Innovation and Jobs. Climate policy, 8(4), 421-429.
• Fanning , T., Jones , C., & Munday , M. (2014). The Regional Employment Returns From Wave and Tidal Energy: A Welsh Analysis. Energy, 76, 958-966.
• Fernandes , L., & Ferreira , P. (2014). Renewable Energy Scenarios in the Portuguese Electricity System. Energy, 69, 51-57.
• Flora , A., Özenç , B., & Wynn , G. (2019). Yeni Teşvikler Türkiye’nin Çatı Tipi Güneş Enerjisi Sektörünü Aydınlatıyor . Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 1-12.
• Ghosh , S. (2002). Electricity consumption and economic growth in india. Energy Policy, 30, 125-129.
• Guenther-Lübbers , W., Bergmann , H., & Theuvsen , L. (2016). Potential Analysis of The Biogas Production–As Measured by Effects of Added Value and Employment. Journal of cleaner production, 129, 556-564.
• Heo , E., Kim , J., & Boo , K. (2010). Analysis of the Assessment Factors for Renewable Energy Dissemination Program Evaluation Using Fuzzy AHP. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14 (8), 2214-2220.
• Hillebrand , B., Buttermann , H., Behringer , J., & Bleuel , M. (2006). The Expansion of Renewable Energies and Employment Effects in Germany. Energy Policy, 34, 3484–3494.
• IEA. (2009). Energy Policies of IEA Countries. https://www.iea.org
• IEA. (2021). Explorer energy data by category, indicator, country or region. https://www.iea.org
• IEA. (2021). Renewables 2021 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecasts to 2026. International Energy Agency. Website: www.iea.org adresinden alındı
• IPCC. (2001). The Scientific Basic Contribution of Working Group I to The Third Assesment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),. Cambidge: Cambridge University Press.
• IRENA. (2011). Renewable Energy Jobs: Prospects and Policies. International Renewable Energy Agency.
• Karaca , C., Ulutaş , A., & Eşgünoğlu , M. (2017). Türkiye’de Optimal Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynağının COPRAS Yöntemiyle Tespiti ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Yatırımlarının İstihdam Artırıcı Etkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 117, 111-132.
• Karagöl, E., Erbaykal, E., & Ertuğrul, H. (2007). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ile Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8(1), 72-80.
• Kaya , T., & Kahraman , C. (2010). Multicriteria Renewable Energy Planning Using An Integrated Fuzzy VIKOR & AHP Methodology: The Case of Istanbul. Energy,, 35 (6), 2517-2527.
• Kaygusuz , K., & Bilgen , S. (2008). Energy related environmental policies in Turkey Energy Sources Part B, 3 (2008). Energy Sources Part B, 3(4), 396-410.
• Khobai , H., Kolisi , N., Moyo, C., Anyikwa , I., & Dingela , S. (2020). Renewable Energy Consumption and Unemployment in South Africa. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(2), 170-178.
• Khodeir , A. (2016). The Relationship Between the Generation of Electricity From Renewable Resources and Unemployment: An Empirical Study on The Egyptian Economy. Arab Economic and Business Journal, 11(1), 16-30.
• Komendantova , N., & Patt , A. (2014). Employment Under Vertical and Horizontal Transfer of Concentrated Solar Power Technology to North African Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 40, 1192-1201.
• Kraft , J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3, 401-403.
• Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries. Energy Policy, 37, 2318–2326.
• Moreno , B., & Lopea , A. (2008). The Effect of Renewable Energy on Employment. The Case of Asturias (Spain). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 12, 732-751.
• Mozumder , P., & Marathe , A. (2007). Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh. Energy Policy, 35(1), 395- 402.
• Nwulu , N., & Agboola , O. (2011). Utilizing Renewable Energy Resources to Solve Nigeria’s Electricity Generation Problem. Int. J. of Thermal & Environmental Engineering, 3(1), 15-20.
• Öztürk, K. (2002). Küresel İklim Değişikliği ve Türkiye’ye Olası Etkileri. G.Ü. Gazi Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(1), 47-65.
• Park , N., Yun , S., & Jeon, E. (2013). An Analysis of Long-Term Scenarios for the Transition to Renewable Energy in the Korean Electricity Sector. Energy Policy, 52, 288-296.
• Paska , J., & Surma , T. (2014). Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Sources in Poland. Renewable Energy, 17, 286-294.
• Przychodzen , W., & Przychodzen , J. (2019). Determinants of Renewable Energy Production in Transition Economies: A Panel Data Approach. Energy, 191, 1-11.
• Ragwitz, M., Schade , W., Breitschoff , B., Walz , R., & Helfrich, N. (2009). The Impact of Renewable Energy Policy on Economic Growth and Unemployment in the European Union. Fraunhofer ISI Germany Report. No. TREN/DI/474/2006.
• Rodríguez, H., Rosas , C., & Sorman , A. (2017). A Societal Metabolism Approach to Job Creation and Renewable Energy Transitions in Catalonia. Energy Policy, 108, 551-564.
• Schmalensee , R. (2011). Evaluating Policies to Increase Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 6(1), 45–64.
• Sevim , U., & Karaman , G. (2019). S Türkiye’de Yenilenebilir Enerji Yatırımları ve Finansman Yöntemleri: Geçmişten Günümüze Eğilimlerin İncelenmesi. Asya Studies, 2(8), 97-109.
• Shahbaz, M., Zeshan , M., & Tıwarı , A. (2011). Analysis of Renewable Energy Consumption, Real GDP and CO2 Emissions: A Structural VAR Approach in Romania. MPR Paper No. 34066.
• Shıu, A., & Pun , L. (2004). Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy, 32, 47-54.
• Silalertruksa , T., Gheewala , S., Hünecke , K., & Fritsche , U. (2012). Biofuels and Employment Effects: Implications for Socio-economic Development in Thailand. Biomass and Bioenergy, 46, 409-418.
• TEİAŞ. (2019). Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş. Genel Müdürlüğü. Türkiye elektrik iletimi sektör 2019 raporu.
• TEİAŞ. (2022). Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş. Genel Müdürlüğü. https://www.teias.gov.tr
• Topgül , S. (2015). A Solution for Unemployment: Green jobs and Green Employment Tokat Example. Journal of Human Sciences, 12(2), 1334-1348.
• TSKB. (2020). Enerji Görünümü. https://www.tskb.com.tr/ Tugcu , C., Ozturk, I., & Aslan , A. (2012). Renewable And NonRenewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Relationship Revisited: Evidence from G7 Countries. Energy Economics, 34, 1942-1950.
• TÜBA. (2018). Güneş Enerjisi Teknolojileri Raporu Ankara - 2018. Ankara: Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Yayınlar.
• TOBB. (2017). Türkiye Rüzgar Enerjisi Kurulu Güç Bölgesel Dağılım Optimizasyonu. Ankara: TOBB Ekonomi ve Teknoloji Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü.
• Wang, W., Zhang, M., & Li , P. (2014). Exploring Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Global Energy Production And Consumption. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 30, 943-949.
• WECTNC. (2003). Energy Report of Turkey in 2002. https://www.worldenergy.org
• World Energy Council. (2021). World Energy Issues Monitor 2021. : https://www.worldenergy.org/
• Worldwatch Institute. (2007). Biofuels for transport: global potential and implications for sustainable energy and agriculture . London: Earthscan.
• Yurdadoğ , V., & Tosunoğlu , Ş. (2017). Türkiye’nin Yenilenebilir Enerji Destek Politikaları. Eurasian Academy Of Sciences Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, 9, 1-21.
• Zhang , S., Chen , Y., Liu , X., Yang , M., & Xu , L. (2017). Employment Effects of Solar PV Industry in China: A Spreadsheet-based Analytical Model. Energy Policy, 109, 59-65.