Estimating potential future distribution of some selected Oak species in the Marmara Region

Abstract

In this study, climate simulations were obtained by reducing the global model results to 2.5 km resolution with the COSMO-CLM model with a dynamic downscaling approach. Bioclimatic variables corresponding to the reference years 2031-2040, 2051-2060, 2071-2080 and 2091-2100 were calculated by using high-resolution meteorological parameters produced from the current and future RCP8.5 emission scenario. With the help of the MaxEnt program run with these variables, habitat suitability analysis was carried out for Quercus frainetto, Q. cerris, Q. petraea and Q. infectoria species distributed in the Marmara Region. When examining the obtained results, it has been concluded that the areas of Quercus frainetto, Q. cerris and Q. petraea increase while the area of Quercus infectoria decrease. It has been revealed that the suitable areas for Quercus frainetto increase from 2020 to 2050, but the highly suitable areas decrease from 2050 to 2070. Furthermore, it has been found that there will be an increase in the highly suitable areas from 2070 to 2100, while both less suitable and suitable areas will experience a decrease. It has been determined that future climatic conditions will increase the habitat suitability of Quercus cerris and Q. petraea and will create the most favourable conditions for their establishment. In contrast, it has been observed that the suitable areas for Quercus infectoria are projected to increase from 2020 to 2050 but decrease from 2050 to 2070 and subsequently from 2070 to 2100.

Keywords

• Oak
• climate change
• habitat suitability modeling
• Marmara Region

Marmara Bölgesinde seçilen bazı Meşe türlerinin gelecekteki potansiyel yayılış alanlarının tahmin edilmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, iklim simülasyonları COSMO-CLM modeli ile küresel model sonuçlarının 2,5 km çözünürlüğe dinamik ölçek küçültme yaklaşımıyla indirgenmesi ile elde edilmiştir. Günümüz ve gelecek RCP8.5 emisyon senaryosundan hareketle üretilen yüksek çözünürlüklü meteorolojik parametreler kullanılarak 2031-2040, 2051-2060, 2071-2080 ve 2091-2100 referans yıllarına karşı gelen biyoiklimsel değişkenler hesaplanmıştır. Bu değişkenlerle çalıştırılan MaxEnt programı yardımıyla, Marmara Bölgesinde yayılış gösteren Quercus frainetto, Q. cerris, Q. petraea ve Q. infectoria türleri için habitat uygunluk analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar irdelendiğinde, Quercus frainetto, Q. cerris ve Q. petraea’nın alanlarının artacağı ve Quercus infectoria’nın ise azalacağı sonucuna varılmıştır. Quercus frainetto için uygun alanların 2020 yılından 2050 yılına doğru arttığı, ancak yüksek uygun alanlarının ise 2050’den 2070’e azalacağı ortaya konmuştur. Ayrıca, 2070’den 2100’e kadar yüksek uygun alanlar artsa da, az uygun ve uygun alanların azalacağı tespit edilmiştir. Gelecek iklim koşullarının Quercus cerris ve Q. petraea’nın habitat uygunluğunu artacağı ve yüzyılın sonunda en elverişli koşulların oluştuğu tespit edilmiştir. Aksine, Quercus infectoria için uygun alanların 2020’den 2050’e artacağı, fakat 2050’den 2070’e ve sonrasında 2070’den 2100’e kadar azalacağı gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Meşe
• iklim değişikliği
• habitat uygunluğu modellemesi
• Marmara Bölgesi

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