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Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Teorisinin Türkiye İçin Fourier Temelli Ampirik Yaklaşımlarla Test Edilmesi

Year 2024, , 49 - 72, 01.04.2024

Şeref Can Serin , Murat Demir

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1329943

Abstract

Enflasyon, ortodoks yaklaşımlarda parasal bir olgu olarak tanıtılmaktadır. Ancak fiyat düzeyinin mali teorisi kapsamında dönemler arası bütçe kısıtının bugünkü değerini yükümlülüklerinden bağımsız bir biçimde belirleyen mali otoritenin uyguladığı politikaların fiyat düzeyi üzerinde belirleyici olabileceği savunulmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Fourier-ADL eş-bütünleşme ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik yaklaşımları kullanılarak Türkiye için fiyat düzeyinin mali teorisinin geçerliliği test edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular 1975-2021 dönemi kapsamında fiyat düzeyinin belirlenmesinde maliye politikasının etkili olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Maliye Politikası Kamu Borcu FTPL Fourier-ADL

References

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Testing the Fiscal Theory of Price Level for Türkiye with Fourier-Based Empirical Approaches

Year 2024, , 49 - 72, 01.04.2024

Şeref Can Serin , Murat Demir

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1329943

Abstract

Inflation is introduced as a monetary phenomenon in orthodox approaches. However, in the fiscal theory of the price level, the policies implemented by the fiscal authority, which determines the present value of intertemporal budget constraint independently of its liabilities, may be determinative of the price level. In this study, the validity of the fiscal theory of the price level for Türkiye was tested via the Fourier-ADL co-integration and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality approach. The findings indicate that fiscal policy was effective in determining the price level in the 1975-2021 period.

Keywords

Fiscal Policy Public Debt FTPL Fourier-ADL

References

  • Afonso, A. (2008), “Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union”, Empirica, Vol.35, No.3: 313–334.
  • Afonso, A.; Toffano, P. (2013), “Fiscal Regimes in the EU”, European Central Bank Working Paper, No.1529: 1-33.
  • Aiyagari, S. R.; Gertler, M. (1985), “The Backing of Government Bonds and Monetarism”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.16, No.1: 19–44.
  • Akça, H. (2021), “Environmental Kuznets Curve and financial development in Turkey: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol.28, No.48: 69149–69159.
  • Akçay, O. C.; C. E. Alper; S. Özmucur (1996), “Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey”, Boğaziçi University, SBE Discussion Papers, No.1996/02: 97-10.
  • Akram, N.; Rais, S. I.; Padda, I. (2011), “Synthesis of the Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Price Level Determination: Evidence from Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Vol.21, No.1. 37–52.
  • Alexiou, K. (2010), “A Note on Ricardian Fiscal Regimes: Empirical Evidence from Greece”, Empirical Economic Letters, Vol.9, No.2: 183–192.
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  • Aydin, M.; Bozatli, O. (2023). “The impacts of the refugee population, renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth on health expenditure in Turkey: new evidence from Fourier-based analyses”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol.30, No.14: 41286-41298.
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  • Baldini, A.; Ribeiro, M. P. (2008), “Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa” IMF Working Paper, No.08/121, 1-39.
  • Banerjee, A.; Dolado, J.; Mestre, R. (1998), “Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.19, No,3: 267–283.
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  • Bildirici, M.; Ersin, Ö. Ö. (2005), “Fiscal Theory of Price Level and Economic Crises: The Case of Turkey”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, Vol.7, No.2: 81–114.
  • Bohn, H. (1998), “The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.113, No.3: 949–963.
  • Boswijk, H. P. (1994), “Testing for an Unstable Root in Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models”, Journal of econometrics, Vol.63, No.1: 37-60.
  • Bozatlı, O.; Bal, H.; Albayrak, M. (2023), “Testing the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey: New evidence from time and frequency domain causality approaches”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol.32, No.6: 835–853.
  • Bolukbas, M.; Peker, O. (2017), “The Relationship Between Price Level and Fiscal Policy in Turkey: An Econometrical Analysis of the FTPL Approach”, Maliye Dergisi, Vol.172, No.1: 1–14.
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  • Buiter, W. H.; Sibert, A. C. (2018), “The Fallacy of The Fiscal Theory of The Price Level—One Last Time”, Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol.12, No.1: 1-56.
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  • Cochrane, J. H. (1999), “A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, Vol.13, No.1: 323–384.
  • Cochrane, J. H. (2001), “Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in The Fiscal Theory of The Price Level”, Econometrica, Vol.69, No.1: 69-116.
  • Cochrane, J. H. (2023), The Fiscal Theory of the price level, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Congregado, E.; Díaz-Roldán, C.; Esteve, V. (2023), “Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: The case of Italy, 1861–2020”. Empirica. Online Wiev: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09577-w
  • Creel, J.; & Kamber, G. (2004), “Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: The case of Turkey”, Revue de l’OFCE, Special Issue, No.91: 157-174.
  • Creel, J.; Monperrus-Veroni, P.; Saraceno, F. (2005), “Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data” Document de Travail OFCE Working Paper, No.2005-12: 1-30.
  • Cushing, M. J. (1999), “The indeterminacy of prices under interest rate pegging: The non-Ricardian case”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.44, No.1: 131–148.
  • Dewachter, H.; Toffano, P. (2012), “Fiscal activism and the cost of debt financing”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol.17, No.1: 14–22.
  • Doi, T. (2018), “Is Abe’s Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?”, Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol.13, No.1: 46–63.
  • Elmas, F.; Songur, M. (2016), “Ricardian Fiscal Regime and Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: The European Monetary System”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Vol.27, No.99: 203–236.
  • Enders, W.; Jones, P. (2016), “Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol.20, No.4: 399–419.
  • Enders, W.; Lee, J. (2012), “The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests”, Economics Letters, Vol.117, No.1: 196–199.
  • Erdoğdu, O. S. (2002), “Price Level Determination: Ricardian vs. Non Ricardian Policies”, Iowa State University, Ph.D. Thesis, Retrieved from: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/home, (Access date: 19.03.2023)
  • Favero, C.; Monacelli, T. (2005), “Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime (In)Stability: Evidence from the U.S.”, IGIER Working Paper, No.282. 1-33.
  • Fialho, M. L.; Portugal, M. S. (2005), “Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil: An application of the fiscal theory of the price level” Estudos Econômicos São Paulo, Vol.35, No.4: 657–685.
  • Hamilton, J. D.; Flavin, M. A. (1986), “On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing”, American Economic Review, Vol.76, No.4: 808-819.
  • Hansen, A. (1949), Monetary Theory & Fiscal Policy, 1st Ed., Tokyo: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
  • Janssen, N.; Nolan, C.; Thomas, R. (2002), “Money, Debt and Prices in the United Kingdom, 1705–1996”, Economica, Vol.69, No.275: 461–479.
  • Javid, A. Y.; Arif, U. (2014), “Fiscal and Monetary Regime Identification for Price Stability in Case of Pakistan’s Economy”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, Vol.35 No.3: 43–70.
  • Javid, A. Y.; Arif, U.; Sattar, A. (2008), “Testing the Fiscal Theory of Price Level in Case of Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Vol.47, No.4: 763–778.
  • Jones, P. M.; Enders, W. (2014), “On the Use of the Flexible Fourier Form in Unit Root Tests, Endogenous Breaks, and Parameter Instability”, (Eds. J. Ma; M. Wohar), Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models: With Applications in Economics and Finance, New York, NY: Springer: 59-83.
  • Keyder, N. (2002), Money: Theory Policy Application, 8th Ed., Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
  • Leeper, E. M. (1991), “Equilibria Under ‘Active’ and ‘Passive’ Monetary and Fiscal Policies”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.27, No.1: 129–147.
  • Masatci, K.; Buzluca, A. O. (2022a), “The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Türkiye” Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Vol.65, No.1: 375–394.
  • Masatci, K.; Buzluca, A. O. (2022b), “Testing The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level in Türkiye By Using Structural Balance Data”. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, Vol.25, No.4: 74-95.
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There are 78 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Policy of Treasury
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Şeref Can Serin 0000-0001-8575-9128

Murat Demir 0000-0002-1466-1104

Publication Date April 1, 2024
Submission Date July 19, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Serin, Ş. C., & Demir, M. (2024). Testing the Fiscal Theory of Price Level for Türkiye with Fourier-Based Empirical Approaches. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(1), 49-72. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1329943