Multinomial Logit Model ile Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde Marka Düzeyinde Cips Talebi Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, IRI verilerini kullanarak 52 cips markasının talebini tahmin etmektedir. Multinomial logit modeli, talep tahmininde karşılaşılan çok sayıda parametre sorunu ve içsellik problemlerine çözüm getirmektedir. Tüm markaların fiyat esneklikleri -5.0412 ile -1.4251 aralığında değişmektedir; bu da tüketicilerin cips fiyatlarına son derece duyarlı olduklarını göstermektedir. Tortilla cips markaları, patates cipsi markalarına göre daha az esnek bulunmuştur. Ayrıca fırınlanmış cips markaları en esnek talebe sahip ürünler arasındadır. Funyuns en yüksek, Calidad Triangle ise en düşük talep esnekliğine sahip markalardır. Çapraz fiyat esneklikleri, IIA (ilişkisiz-alternatiflerin-bağımsızlığı) özelliğini sergilemektedir ve büyüklükleri (0.0010 ile 0.0263 arasında), fiyat esnekliklerinin büyüklükleriyle kıyaslandığında tüketicilerin marka sadakatine sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Farklılaştırılmış Ürün Talebi
• Cips Talebi
• Multinomial Logit Model

Analyzing Brand-Level Chips Demand in the United States Using the Multinomial Logit Model

Abstract

This study estimates demand for 52 chip brands using IRI scanner data. The multinomial logit model addresses dimensionality and endogeneity issues in demand estimation. All brands exhibit elastic demand, with own-price elasticities between -5.0412 and -1.4251, indicating high consumer responsiveness to price changes. Notably, tortilla chip brands are less elastic than potato chip brands. Baked chip brands fall under the category of highly elastic brands. Funyuns has the most elastic demand, while Calidad Triangle has the least elastic demand. Cross-price elasticities (0.0010 to 0.0263), exhibiting the IIA property, indicate that consumers have brand loyalty, as seen by comparisons with own-price elasticities' magnitudes.

Keywords

• Differentiated Goods Demand
• Chip Demand
• Multinomial Logit Model

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