Yurtdışı İşçi Gelirleri ve Hollanda Hastalığı: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Ev sahibi ülkenin üretim, yatırım ve istihdam yapısı gibi bir dizi parametre üzerinde etkili olan yurtdışı işçi gelirleri (YİG)’nin, reel döviz kurunu etkilemesi dolayısıyla dış ticaret yapısı üzerinde de etkileri söz konusudur. YİG’nin yanı sıra doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları ve dış yardım gibi çeşitli sermaye akımları yoluyla ortaya çıkabilen ve literatürde Hollanda Hastalığı olarak adlandırılan bu olayın çıkış noktası, doğal kaynak keşiflerinden dolayı dış finansman girişlerinde yaşanan ani ve büyük hacimli artışlar olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, en fazla YİG elde eden ülkeler arasından seçilen 9 ülkeye ait 1990-2014 dönemi panel verileri kullanılarak, YİG’nin ev sahibi ülke döviz kurunda bir reel değerlenmeye yol açıp açmadığının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çift yönlü rassal etkiler tahmincisinin kullanıldığı analizden elde edilen bulgular, bir Hollanda Hastalığı belirtisi olarak, YİG’nin reel değerlenmeye yol açtığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Yurtdışı İşçi Gelirleri,Hollanda Hastalığı,Panel Veri Analizi

Workers' Remittances and Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Countries

Abstract

Workers’ remittances, that have influence on a range of parameters like production, investment and employment structure of host country, exert effects on the foreign trade structure as well through its impact on real exchange rate. Besides the capital inflows like foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and foreign aid, workers remittance can also lead to Dutch Disease, a phenomena known in literature resulted from sudden and massive increase in foreign capital inflow because of natural resource discovery. The study aims to determine whether the workers' remittances led to a real appreciation in the host country’s currency employing panel data for the period of 1990-2014 for 9 countries selected from those receiving the highest workers’ remittance. Findings from the analysis of the two-way random effects estimation suggest that, as a Dutch Disease Symptom, workers' remittances lead to a real appreciation of the home countries' currencies. 

Keywords

• Workers’ Remittances,Dutch Disease,Panel Data Analysis

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