Çıktı ve İşsizlik Arasında bir Denge Var mıdır? G-20 Ülkeleri İçin Okun Yasası’ndan bir Kanıt

Abstract

Literatürde Okun Yasası olarak bilinen şekliyle çıktı ile işsizlik arasında G-20 ülkeleri için bir denge var olabilir. Bu araştırmanın amacı, G-20 ülkeleri için 1991-2014 dönemini kapsayan zaman serisi verileri ile Okun Yasasını yeniden gözden geçirmektir. İlişkiyi test etmek için birinci dereceden fark ve “boşluk” belirtme metotları kullanılmaktadır. Boşluk belirtme metodu için Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Chiristiano-Fitzgerald (CF) and Butterworth (BW) filtreleme teknikleri yürütülmektedir. Tüm metotlar için, bulgular ülkelerin çoğunda çıktı ile işsizlik arasında ters bir ilişkinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. İlginç bir bulgu ise Çin, Endonezya, Sudi Arabistan ve Türkiye’de kullanılan bu filtreleme tekniklerinin en az bir tanesiyle Okun katsayısı sağlanamamaktadır. Anlaşılmaktadır ki, G-20 ülkeleri gelişme karakteristikleri ve üretim farklılıklarına dayanarak farklı Okun katsayıları sergilemektedirler.

Keywords

• Okun Yasası,İşsizlik,Çıktı,G-20 Ülkeleri

Is there a Trade-off between Output and Unemployment? An Evidence from Okun’s Law for G-20 Countries

Abstract

There can be a trade-off between output and unemployment which is formally called in literature as Okun’s Law for G-20 countries. The objective of this research is to reconsider Okun’s Law for G-20 countries with time-series data over the period 1991-2014. First order difference and “gap” specification methods are used for testing the relationship. Three different filtering techniques; Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Chiristiano-Fitzgerald (CF) and Butterworth (BW) are conducted for the gap specification method. For all methods, the results validate the existence of inverse relation between output and unemployment in most of the countries. An interesting finding is China, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and, Turkey do not satisfy the Okun’s coefficient with at least one of these filtering techniques. It is understood that, Group of G-20 countries display different Okun’s coefficients depending on their development structures and productivity heterogeneities.

Keywords

• Okun’s Law,Unemployment,Output,G20 Countries

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