Türkiye’de Para Politikasının Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi

Year 2019, , 657 - 674, 31.12.2019

Musa Bayır

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.486955

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye
ekonomisinde para politikası ve konut fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik
olarak araştırmaktır. Ampirik analiz yöntemi olarak Yapısal VAR analizi tercih
edilmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler; federal fon oranı, sanayi
üretim endeksi, yapı kullanım izni, reel konut fiyatları ve gecelik faiz
oranıdır. Analiz 2011:1-2017:12 dönemini kapsamakta ve aylık veriler
kullanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, para politikasının konut fiyatları üzerinde etkisi
olmadığını göstermektedir. Aynı dönemde, konut fiyatları yalnızca kendi gecikmeli
değerlerine önemli düzeyde tepki vermektedir.

Keywords

Konut Fiyatları, Para Politikası, Yapısal VAR

The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices in the Turkey

Abstract

The aim of the study is to empirically investigate the relationship
between monetary policies and house prices in Turkey’s economy. The Structural
VAR analysis is preferred as the method of empirical analysis. The variables
used in the study are federal funding rate, industrial production index,
building use permit, real house prices and overnight interest rate. The
analysis includes the periods between 2011:1 and 2017:12 and monthly data is
used. The results of the analysis indicate that monetary policy has no effect
on house prices. In the same period, the house prices only reacted to the
lagged values of the house prices,  significantly.

Keywords

House Prices, Monetary Policy, Structural VAR

References

• Akkas, Murat Engin; Sayılgan Güven (2015), "Konut Fiyatlari ve Konut Kredisi Faizi : Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi", 19. Finans Sempozyumu kitabı içinde, 367–78. Çorum: Finans Bilim Platformu.
• Alper, Koray; Tiryaki, S. Tolga (2011), “Zorunlu Karşılıkların Para Politikasındaki Yeri”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı. 2011-08. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/c3bf7fab-73b6-42f2-b2e1-888897ef563b/EN1108eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-c3bf7fab-73b6-42f2-b2e1-888897ef563b-m3fw4-w, (Erişim:03.07.2018).
• Badurlar, İlkay Öner (2008), “Türkiye’deki Konut Fiyatları İle Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt. 8, No. 1: 223–38.
• Bekmez, Selahattin; Özpolat, Aslı (2013), “Türkiye’de Konut Talebinin Belirleyenleri: Dinamik Bir Analiz”, Tisk Akademi Sayı. 2: 171–87.
• Bernanke, Ben S; Gertler Mark (1995), “Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4: 27–48.
• Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2010), “The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies”, Journal of Financial Stability Vol. 6, No. 4: 218–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2010.02.001.
• Boivin, Jean; Kiley, Michael T.; Mishkin, Frederic S (2010), “How has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved over Time?”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15879.
• Clarida, Richard; Galí, Jordi; Gertler, Mark (2001), “Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach”, American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 2: 248–52.
• Dokko, Jane vd. (2009), “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 2009-49, Washington.
• Elbourne, Adam (2008), “The UK Housing Market and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: An SVAR Approach”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 17, No. 1: 65–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002.
• https://www.stlouisfed.org/, (Erişim Tarihi:10.08.2018).
• http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.08.2018).
• http://www.tuik.gov.tr, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.08.2018).
• Giuliodori, Massimo (2005), “The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism across European Countries”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vo. 52, No. 4: 519–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2005.00354.x.
• Goodhart, Charles; Hofmann, Boris (2008), “House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 888.
• Guo, Feng; Huang, Ying Sophie (2010), “Does ‘Hot Money’ Drive China’s Real Estate and Stock Markets?”, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 19, No. (3): 452–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2009.10.014.
• Iacoviello, Matteo (2002), “House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis”, Boston College Working Papers in Economics, No. 540.
• İslamoğlu, Bahar; Buluş, Abdulkadir (2018), “Mortgage Piyasası ve Para Politikasının Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt. 23, Sayı. 2: 455–66.
• Jarocinski, Marek; Frank Smets (2008), “House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 891.
• Kara, Hakan (2012), “Küresel Kriz Sonrası Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, Sayı. 2012/17.
• Karamelikli, Hüseyin (2016), “Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Housing Price in Turkey”. Ekonomia, Vol. 46, No. 46: 81–98. https://doi.org/10.17451/eko/46/2016/238.
• Kasai, Ndahiriwe; Gupta, Rangan (2010), “Financial Liberalisation and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on House Prices in South Africa”, The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 8, No. 4: 59–74.
• Kim, Soyoung; Roubini, Nouriel (2000), “Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 45, No. 3: 561–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00010-6.
• Kolcu, Fatma; Yamak, Nebiye (2018), “Gelir ve Faiz Oranlarinin Konut Fi̇yatları Üzeri̇ndeki̇ Kisa ve Uzun Dönem Etki̇leri̇”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, Prof. Dr. Harun Terzi Özel Sayısı. 141–52. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.439535.
• Leamer, Edward (2007), “Housing IS the Business Cycle”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13428. https://doi.org/10.3386/w13428.
• McDonald, John F.; Stokes, Houston H. (2013), “Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates and Housing Bubble”. Economics & Finance Research No. 1: 82–91. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21649480.2013.870490.
• Mishkin, Frederic S. (2007), “Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism", NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13518
• Musso, Alberto; Neri, Stefano; Stracca, Livio (2011), “Housing, Consumption and Monetary Policy: How Different are the US and the Euro Area?” Journal of Banking and Finance, Vo. 35, No. 11: 3019–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.04.004.
• Mutsvunguma, Priscilla Tatenda (2013), “Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices , a VAR Approach . A Case Study of South Africa ( 1994 to 2011 )”, Master Thesis, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
• Öztürk, Nurettin; Fitöz, Esra (2009), “Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Belirleyicileri: Ampirik Bir Uygulama”. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt. 5, Sayı. 10: 21–46.
• Panagiotidis, Theodore; Printzis, Panagiotis (2016), “On the Macroeconomic Determinants of the Housing Market in Greece: a VECM Approach”, International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol. 13, No. 3: 387–409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0345-3.
• Pfaff, Bernhard (2008), “VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package Vars”. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 27, No. 4. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v027.i04.
• Rosenberg, Signe (2018), “The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on House Prices in the Scandinavian Countries”, TUT Economic Research Series, No. 2018/2.
• Shi, Song; Jou, Jyh Bang; Tripe, David (2014), “Can Interest Rates Really Control House Prices? Effectiveness and Implications for Macroprudential Policy”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 47, No. 1: 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.06.012.
• Shiller, Robert (2006), “Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices”. Economists’ Voice, Vol. 3, No. 4.
• Sims, Christopher A.; Zha, Tao (2006), “Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?”, Macroeconomic Dynamics Vol. 10, No. 02: 231–72. https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v10y2006i02p231-272_05.html.
• Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. (2003), “Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLI: 788–829. https://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/Stock_Watson_JEL_2003.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi:07.08.2018).
• Svensson, Lars E. O. (1998), “Open-Economy Inflation Targeting”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 6545.
• Taylor, John B. (2007), “Housing and Monetary Policy”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13682.
• Tse, Chin Bun; Timothy Rodgers; Niklewski, Jacek (2014), “The 2007 Financial Crisis and the UK Residential Housing Market: Did the Relationship between Interest Rates and House Prices Change?”, Economic Modelling, No. 37: 518–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.013.
• Uysal, Doğan; Yiğit, Mehmet (2016), “Türkiye’de Konut Talebinin Belirleyicileri (1970-2015): Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, Cilt. 19, Sayı. 1: 185–209.
• Wadud, I. K. M.Mokhtarul; Bashar, Omar H.M.N.; Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali (2012), “Monetary Policy and the Housing Market in Australia”. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 34, Sayı. 6: 849–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.06.002.
• Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor; Chen, Tao (2012), “The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Estate Price Growth in China”, Pacific Basin Finance Journal, Vol. 20, No. 1: 62–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2011.08.001.
• Yılmaz, Durmuş (2009), “Küresel Kriz ve Merkez Bankası”, TCMB Başkan Konuşmaları, İstanbul. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/3c5432cb-b1f3-4f01-8752-d0437bddaa4d/Baskan_finans_klup.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-3c5432cb-b1f3-4f01-8752-d0437bddaa4d-m3fC4Gd. (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2018).
• Zhang, Chengsi (2013), “Money, Housing, and Inflation in China”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 35, No. 1: 75–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.04.006.