Çalışma Sermayesi ve Karlılık İlişkisinin Keşifsel Bir Araçla ANFIS İncelenmesi

Abstract

Literatürde çalışma sermayesi konusunda korelasyon ve regresyon gibi doğrusal analiz teknikleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen öncü araştırmada, çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık arasında ilişkinin negatif yönlü olduğu raporlanmıştır. Aslında çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olduğuna dair bulgular teoriyle ters düşmektedir. Çünkü finans teorisine göre çalışma sermayesinin azlığı işletmenin faaliyetlerini aksatacak ve kârlılığı olumsuz etkileyecektir. Ancak çalışma sermayesinin fazlalığı da kaynakların atıl kalması nedeniyle, kârlılığı azaltmaktadır. Nitekim özellikle son zamanlardaki yayınlarda çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık ilişkisinin doğrusal olmadığı ve bir optimal çalışma sermayesi büyüklüğü bulunduğu yönünde önemli bulgular raporlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık arasındaki ilişki Uyarlanabilir Sinirsel Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System – ANFIS ile modellenerek, görsel bir şekilde gün yüzüne çıkartılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık ilişkisinin doğrusal olmadığını göstermektedir. Çalışmada veri seti olarak Borsa İstanbul’da 2000-2013 yılları arasında işlem gören işletmeler yer almaktadır.

Keywords

• Çalışma Sermayesi, Karlılık, Sinirsel Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi, ANFIS, Borsa Istanbul

Explore Working Capital – Profitability Relation with a Non-Linear Tool ANFIS

Abstract

The pioneering research on working capital were carried out using techniques such as correlation and linear regression analysis and many of these research studies have reported that there is a negative relationship between working capital and profitability. In fact, studies search for a linear relationship between working capital and profitability, contradicts the theory. Because according to financial theory, lack of working capital is hampering the operations of the business. Therefore, profitability is reduced. However, again according to the theory, in excess of working capital due to remain idle resources it will adversely affect profitability. Indeed, recent publications on the relationship between working capital and profitability is reported that there is a non-linear relationship and indicates the optimal size of working capital. This research study aims to explore the relationship instead of looking for a linear relationship between capital and profitability. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for the Detection ANFIS is used. Results are non-linear relationship of working capital and profitability reveals. The study used a data set of enterprises listed at the stock exchange in Borsa Istanbul between the years 2000-2013.

Keywords

• Working capital,profitability,Neuro

References

1. Akkoç, S. (2012). An empirical comparison of conventional techniques, neural networks and the three stage hybrid Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model for credit scoring analysis: The case of Turkish credit card data. European Journal of Operational Research, 222(1), 168–178. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.04.009
2. Aktas, N., Croci, E. ve Petmezas, D. (2015). Is working capital management valueenhancing? Evidence from firm performance and investments. Journal of Corporate Finance, 30, 98–113. doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.12.008
3. Alavinasab, S. M. ve Davoudi, E. (2013). Studying the relationship between working capital management and profitability of listed companies in Tehran stock exchange. Business Management Dynamics, 2(7), 01–08.
4. Altan, M. S. Ü. K. Türkiye ve Şekeroğlu, G. S. Ü. K. Türkiye. (2013). Çalışma sermayesi finanslama stratejilerinin firma kârlılığı üzerine etkileri: İMKB’de kayıtlı firmalar üzerinde bir araştırma. The effects of working capital financing strategies on profitability: A research on companies listed on ISE, (30), 223.
5. Aygün, M. (2012). Firma Performansı Üzerinde Calışma Sermayesinin Etkisi: Türk İmalat Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama/The Effect of Working Capital on Firm Performance: An Examination on Turkish Manufacturing Sectors. Ege Akademik Bakis, 12(2), 215–223.
6. Baños-Caballero, S., García-Teruel, P. J. ve Martínez-Solano, P. (2012). How does working capital management affect the profitability of Spanish SMEs? Small Business Economics, 39(2), 517–529. doi:10.1007/s11187-011-9317-8
7. Baños-Caballero, S., García-Teruel, P. J. ve Martínez-Solano, P. (2014). Working capital management, corporate performance, and financial constraints. Journal of Business Research, 67(3), 332–338. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2013.01.016
8. Buckmaster, D. ve Saniga, E. (1990). Distributional Forms of Financial Accounting Ratios: Pearson’s and Johnson’s Taxonomies. Journal of Economic & Social Measurement, 16(3), 149–166.

9. Büyüköztürk, Ş., Çokluk, Ö. ve Köklü, N. (2015). Sosyal Bilimciler İstatistik (15. bs.). Ankara: Pagem Akademi.
10. Chen, M.-C. ve Huang, S.-H. (2003). Credit scoring and rejected instances reassigning through evolutionary computation techniques. Expert Systems with Applications, 24(4), 433–441. doi:10.1016/S0957-4174(02)00191-4
11. Coşkun, E. (2011). Çalışma sermayesi politikalarının kârlılık üzerine etkisi: Dinamik panel uygulaması. Effect of working capital policies on profitability: A dynamic panel analysis, (suppl), 75.
12. Deloof, M. (2003). Does Working Capital Management Affect Profitability of Belgian Firms? Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 30(3-4), 573–588. doi:10.1111/1468-5957.00008
13. Elmas, Ç. (2003). Bulanık mantık denetleyiciler. Bıçaklar Kitabevi.
14. Enqvist, J., Graham, M. ve Nikkinen, J. (2014). The impact of working capital management on firm profitability in different business cycles: Evidence from Finland. Research in International Business and Finance, 32, 36–49. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.03.005
15. Evans, M. ve Kennedy, J. (2014). Integration of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems and principal component analysis for the control of tertiary scale formation on tinplate at a hot mill. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(15), 6662–6675. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2014.05.020
16. Filbeck, G. ve Krueger, T. M. (2005). An Analysis of Working Capital Management Results Across Industries. American Journal of Business, 20(2), 11–20. doi:10.1108/19355181200500007
17. Foster, G. (1986). Financial Statement Analysis (2 edition.). Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall.
18. García-Teruel, P. J. ve Martínez-Solano, P. (2007). Effects of working capital management on SME profitability. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 3(2), 164–177. doi:10.1108/17439130710738718
19. Gill, A., Biger, N. ve Mathur, N. (2010). The relationship between working capital management and profitability: evidence from The United States. Business and Economics Journal, 10, 1–9.
20. Gitman, L. J. (1997). Managerial Finance (8. bs.). Addison Wesley Publishing Company.
21. Jang, J.-S. R. (1993). ANFIS: Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 23(3), 665–685. doi:10.1109/21.256541
22. Jang, J.-S. R., Sun, C.-T. ve Mizutani, E. (1997). Neuro-Fuzzy and Soft Computing : A Computational Approach to Learning and Machine Intelligence. Prentice Hall.
23. Jose, M. L., Lancaster, C. ve Stevens, J. L. (1996). Corporate Returns and Cash Conversion Cycles. Journal of Economics & Finance, 20(1), 33.
24. Kane, G. D. ve Meade, N. L. (1998). Ratio Analysis Using Rank Transformation. Review of Quantitative Finance & Accounting, 10(1), 59–74.
25. Karadağlı, E. (2012). The Effect of Working Capital Management on the Profitability of Turkish SMEs. British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 5(2), 36–44.
26. Kaur, J. (2010). Working capital management in Indian tyre industry. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 46(1), 7–15.
27. Malik, M. S. ve Bukhari, M. (2014). The Impact of Working Capital Management on Corporate Performance: A Study of Firms in Cement, Chemical and Engineering Sectors of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce & Social Sciences, 8(1), 134– 148.
28. Mathuva, D. (2009). The influence of working capital management components on corporate profitability: a survey on Kenyan listed firms. Research Journal of Business Management, 3(1), 1–11.
29. Moss, J. D. ve Stine, B. (1993). Cash Conversion Cycle and Firm Size: A Study of Retail Firms. Managerial Finance, 19(8), 25–34. doi:10.1108/eb013739
30. Mun, S. G. ve Jang, S. (Shawn). (2015). Working capital, cash holding, and profitability of restaurant firms. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 48, 1–11. doi:10.1016/j.ijhm.2015.04.003
31. Nazir, M. S. ve Afza, T. (2009). Impact of aggressive working capital management policy on firms’ profitability. The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 15(8), 19–30.
32. Salkind, N. J. (2010). Encyclopedia of Research Design. Sage Publications.
33. Sarkheyli, A., Zain, A. M. ve Sharif, S. (2015). Robust optimization of ANFIS based on a new modified GA. Neurocomputing, 166, 357–366.
34. Sayılgan, G. (2010). İşletme Finansmanı (4. bs.). Ankara: Turhan Kitabevi.
35. Sharma, A. K. ve Kumar, S. (2011). Effect of Working Capital Management on Firm Profitability Empirical Evidence from India. Global Business Review, 12(1), 159– 173. doi:10.1177/097215091001200110
36. Shin, H.-H. ve Soenen, L. (1998). Efficiency of working capital management and corporate profitability. Financial practice and education, 8, 37–45.
37. Shoorehdeli, M. A., Teshnehlab, M., Sedigh, A. K. ve Khanesar, M. A. (2009). Identification using ANFIS with intelligent hybrid stable learning algorithm approaches and stability analysis of training methods. Applied Soft Computing, 9(2), 833–850. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2008.11.001
38. Shubita, M. F. (2013). Working Capital Management and Profitability: A Case of Industrial Jordanian Companies. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 4(8), n/a.
39. Singhania, M., Sharma, N. ve Yagnesh Rohit, J. (2014). Working capital management and profitability: evidence from Indian manufacturing companies. Decision (0304-0941), 41(3), 313–326. doi:10.1007/s40622-014-0043-3
40. Singh, H. P. ve Kumar, S. (2014). Working capital management: a literature review and research agenda. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 6(2), 173–197. doi:10.1108/QRFM-04-2013-0010
41. Şamiloğlu, F. ve Demirgüneş, K. (2008). The Effect of Working Capital Management on Firm Profitability: Evidence from Turkey. The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2(1), 44–50. doi:10.3923/ijaef.2008.44.50
42. Tomak, S. (2013). Çalışma Sermayesi Yönetimi: Türkiye İmalat Sektöründe Çalışma Sermayesi Uygulamaları ve Firma Performansına Etkileri. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
43. Trippi, R. R. ve Turban, E. (1996). Neural Networks in Financial and Investing. Irwin, Chicago.
44. Ukaegbu, B. (2014). The significance of working capital management in determining firm profitability: Evidence from developing economies in Africa. Research in International Business and Finance, 31, 1–16. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2013.11.005
45. Vural, G., Sökmen, A. G. ve Çetenak, E. H. (2012). Affects of Working Capital Management on Firm’s Performance: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(4), 488–495.
46. Wang, Y.-J. (2002). Liquidity management, operating performance, and corporate value: evidence from Japan and Taiwan. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 12(2), 159–169. doi:10.1016/S1042-444X(01)00047-0
47. Yıldız, B. (2009). Finansal Analizde Yapay Zeka. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
48. Yıldız, B. ve Akkoç, S. (2009). Banka Finansal Başarısızlıklarının Sinirsel Bulanık Ağ Yöntemi ile Öngörüsü. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 3(1), 9–36.
49. Yu, W. ve Li, X. (2004). Fuzzy identification using fuzzy neural networks with stable learning algorithms. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 12(3), 411–420. doi:10.1109/TFUZZ.2004.825067
50. Yücel, T. ve Kurt, G. (2002). Nakit Dönüş Süresi, Nakit Yönetimi ve Kârlılık: İMKB Şirketleri Üzerinde Ampirik Bir Çalışma. İMKB Dergisi, 6(22), 1–15.
51. Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information and Control, 8(3), 338–353. doi:10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X
52. Zainudin, N. (2006). Liquidity-profitability trade-off : is it evident among Malaysian SMEs? International Journal of Management Studies (IJMS), 13(2), 107–118.