The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on Employment: Evidence from NARDL Approach in the Case of Turkey

Abstract

In this paper, the effects of international oil prices on employment have been investigated in Turkey as a net oil importer developing country. Considering the potential asymmetric effects of oil prices on employment, the study focuses on the industrial employment, where the intensity of oil use is relatively high, and therefore the effects of oil prices are expected to be felt more intensely. In the analysis, covering the period of January 2005 – November 2020 and utilizing the NARDL approach, it has been found that the effects of oil prices on industrial employment are asymmetric in Turkey. Reaching the findings which suggest the decreases in oil prices as well as increases affect industrial employment negatively, the oil price uncertainty channel has been put forward as the source of asymmetry.

Keywords

• Oil Prices
• Employment
• Asymmetry

Petrol Fiyatlarının İstihdam Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneğinde NARDL Yaklaşımı Bulguları

Abstract

Bu çalışmada uluslararası petrol fiyatlarının istihdam üzerindeki etkileri, gelişmekte olan ve petrol ithalatçısı bir ülke olarak Türkiye örnekleminde araştırılmıştır. Petrol fiyatlarının istihdam üzerindeki potansiyel asimetrik etkilerinin dikkate alındığı çalışmada, petrol kullanımı yoğunluğunun görece yüksek olduğu ve dolayısıyla petrol fiyatlarının etkilerinin daha yoğun hissedilmesinin beklendiği sanayi sektörü istihdamına yoğunlaşılmıştır. NARDL yaklaşımından yararlanılan analizde, 2005 Ocak – 2020 Kasım dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de petrol fiyatlarının sanayi istihdamı üzerindeki etkilerinin asimetrik olduğu bulgularına ulaşılmıştır. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artışların yanı sıra azalışların da sanayi istihdamını negatif etkilediğine dair kanıtları sunan çalışmada asimetrinin kaynağı olarak ise petrol fiyatlarının belirsizliği kanalı öne çıkarılmıştır.

Keywords

• Petrol Fiyatları
• İstihdam
• Asimetri

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