OKA Ülkelerinde Kamu Harcamalarının Döngüselliği

Year 2022, , 207 - 220, 01.04.2022

Recep Yorulmaz , Savaş Kaptan

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.991277

Abstract

Ekonomik dalgalanmaların negatif etkilerini hafifletmek için mali otoriteler sıklıkla konjonktür karşıtı politikalara başvurmaktadır. Ancak, bazıları da mali disiplini korumak adına bu dalgalanmalara tepki vermeyerek konjonktür yanlısı politikayı tercih etmektedirler. Bu çalışma, bahsedilen bu ilişkiyi Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika (OKA) ülkeleri için 1981-2017 yıllarını kapsayacak şekilde incelemektedir. Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) metodolojisi kullanılan çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre incelenen ülkeler arasında Cezayir, Bahreyn, Mısır, Ürdün, Suudi Arabistan ve Tunus’un konjonktür karşıtı politika uyguladığı görülmektedir. Ancak, etki-tepki fonksiyonları detaylı incelendiğinde Cezayir, Mısır ve Ürdün için istatistiksel anlamlılık bulunamadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bölgede daha güçlü ve istikrarlı yönetim yapısına sahip ülkelerde ekonomik dalgalanma dönemlerinde krizin etkilerini önlemeye yönelik adımların daha kolay atıldığı söylenebilecektir.

Keywords

Maliye Politikası, Mali Duruş, Konjonktür karşıtı, Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar, OKA

Cyclicality of Government Consumption in Selected MENA Economies

Abstract

To alleviate the negative impacts of fluctuations, fiscal authorities frequently resort to counter-cyclical policies while some of them do not follow a pro-cyclical stance for fiscal discipline. Based upon this nexus, this study investigates how selected Middle East, and North African (MENA) countries respond to the movements in the economic growth through fiscal policies in the period between 1981-2017. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology is employed to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policies. The results demonstrate that Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia tend to follow counter-cyclical policies in terms of government final consumption expenditure. However, the impulse responses of government consumption are not significant for Algeria, Egypt, and Jordan. It is concluded that countries with stronger and stable government structures tend to give quick responses to economic fluctuations.

Keywords

Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Counter-cyclical, Business cycles, MENA

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