The Relationship between Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Turkey: An Analysis Based on Gender and Education Level

Year 2018, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 55 - 76, 15.08.2018

Füsun Yenilmez , Esin Kılıç

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.410254

Cited By: 8

Abstract

According to the economic theory, changes in the unemployment rate can have two
different effects on the labor force participation rate. In
the periods of economic stagnation when the unemployment rate increases, the decrease in the labor force participation rate
is explained by the discouraged worker effect; while the increase in labor
force participation rate is explained by the added worker effect. In this study, it was investigated which of these effects is dominant in Turkey’s labor market, using data from January 2014 to July 2017. To achieve
more detailed information on the relationship between labor force participation
rate and the unemployment rate, the econometric analysis process was conducted
using the data based on education level and gender. Findings indicate that the
added worker effect is dominant for highly or vocation-educated women, while
there was no significant long-term relationship between labor force
participation and unemployment rate for high-skilled men.

Keywords

Added Worker Effect, Discouraged Worker Effect, Labor Market, ARDL Model, Turkey

Türkiye’de İşgücüne Katılma Oranı-İşsizlik Oranı İlişkisi: Cinsiyet ve Eğitim Düzeyine Dayalı Bir Analiz

Abstract

Ekonomik
teoriye göre, işsizlik oranındaki
değişmeler işgücüne katılma oranı üzerinde iki
farkı etkiye sahip olabilmektedir. İşsizlik oranının arttığı ekonomik
daralma dönemlerinde işgücüne katılma oranının azalması gücenmiş işçi etkisi, işgücüne katılma oranının artması ise ilave
işçi etkisi ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu
çalışmada, Ocak 2014-Temmuz 2017 dönemi verileri kullanılarak Türkiye'nin işgücü
piyasasında bu iki etkiden hangisinin baskın olduğu araştırılmıştır. İşgücüne
katılma oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiye yönelik daha ayrıntılı
bilgiye ulaşmak amacıyla, ekonometrik analiz süreci eğitim düzeyi ve cinsiyete
dayalı veriler kullanılarak yürütülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre yüksek ya
da mesleki eğitimli kadınlar için ilave işçi etkisi baskın etki iken, kalifiye
erkeklerin işgücüne katılma oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasında uzun dönemli
anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır.

Keywords

İlave İşçi Etkisi, Gücenmiş İşçi Etkisi, İşgücü Piyasası, ARDL Modeli, Türkiye

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