Türkiye’de Para Politikasının Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi

Year 2019, Volume: 14 Issue: 3, 657 - 674, 31.12.2019

Musa Bayır

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.486955

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye
ekonomisinde para politikası ve konut fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik
olarak araştırmaktır. Ampirik analiz yöntemi olarak Yapısal VAR analizi tercih
edilmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler; federal fon oranı, sanayi
üretim endeksi, yapı kullanım izni, reel konut fiyatları ve gecelik faiz
oranıdır. Analiz 2011:1-2017:12 dönemini kapsamakta ve aylık veriler
kullanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, para politikasının konut fiyatları üzerinde etkisi
olmadığını göstermektedir. Aynı dönemde, konut fiyatları yalnızca kendi gecikmeli
değerlerine önemli düzeyde tepki vermektedir.

Keywords

Konut Fiyatları, Para Politikası, Yapısal VAR

The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices in the Turkey

Abstract

The aim of the study is to empirically investigate the relationship
between monetary policies and house prices in Turkey’s economy. The Structural
VAR analysis is preferred as the method of empirical analysis. The variables
used in the study are federal funding rate, industrial production index,
building use permit, real house prices and overnight interest rate. The
analysis includes the periods between 2011:1 and 2017:12 and monthly data is
used. The results of the analysis indicate that monetary policy has no effect
on house prices. In the same period, the house prices only reacted to the
lagged values of the house prices,  significantly.

Keywords

House Prices, Monetary Policy, Structural VAR

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