Abstract
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de birincil denge belirleyicilerinin ampirik olarak tespit edilebilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda yıllık veriler kullanılarak 1986-2017 dönemi için Sıradan En Küçük Kareler yöntemi ile Türkiye’nin mali reaksiyon fonksiyonu hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de birincil denge, borç artışlarına karşı pozitif bir tepki vermektedir. Ancak bu tepkinin borç stokunun artmasıyla birlikte –mali yorgunluk davranışı göstererek- yavaşladığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca birincil dengenin çıktı açığı, kamu harcamaları açığı, yaş bağımlılık oranı ve dış ticaret hacminden etkilendiği bulgusuna erişilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ekonomideki canlanma dönemleri, her zaman için kullanılabilir bir mali alanın varlığı ve genç nüfusun istihdama katılımı birincil dengede istenilen düzeyin yakalanabilmesi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Son olarak, Türkiye’de hükümetler, birincil denge üzerindeki kontrollerini güçlendirebilmeleri için yüksek cari açık sorununu yapısal sorun olmaktan çıkarmalıdırlar.
References
- Abiad, Abdul; Ostry, Jonathan (2005), “Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries”, IMF Policy Discussion Paper, PDP/05/6: 1-18.
- Barro, Robert (1979), “On the determination of the public debt”, Journal of Political Econ-omy, C.87, S.5: 940-971.
- Bastos, Fabiano; Pineda, Emilio (2013), “Fiscal Space of Brazilian States”, Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, IDB-DP-310: 1-20.
- Bohn, Henning (1998), “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits”, The Quarterly Jour-nal of Economics, 949-963.
- Bohn, Henning (2008), “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States”, CESifo Working Paper Series, 1446: 15-49.
- Celasun, Oya; Debrun, Xaiver; Ostry, Jonathan (2007), “Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A “Fan-Chart” Approach”, IMF Staff Pa-pers, Vol.53, No.3: 401-425.
- Ghosh, Atish; Kim, Jun; Mendoza, Enrique; Ostry, Jonathan; Qureshi, Mahvash (2013), “Fis-cal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”, The Economic Jour-nal, 123: F4-F30.
- Gujarati, Damodar; Porter, Dawn (2012), Temel Ekonometri (Ümit Şenesen ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Çev.), İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları (2009).
- Hajnovič, Frantisek; Zeman, Juraj (2013), “Fiscal Space in the Euro Zone”, Narodna Banka Slovenska, Vol.21, No.2: 9-14.
- International Monetary Fund (Uluslararası Para Fonu) (2003), “Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?”, World Economic Outlook, 113-152.
- Knack, Stephen; Keefer, Philip (1995), “Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures”, Economics and Politics, C.7, S.3: 207-227.
- Mendoza, Enrique; Ostry, Jonathan (2008), “International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy “Responsible”?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 55: 1081-1093.
- Nerlich, Carolin; Reuter, Heinrich (2015), “Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space and Procyclical Fiscal Policy”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No.1872: 1-30.
- Ostry, Jonathan; Ghosh, Atish; Kim, Jun; Qureshi, Mahvash (2010), “Fiscal Space”, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/11: 1-24.
- Park, Seok Gil (2012), “Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space”, IMF Work-ing Paper, WP/12/164: 1-24.
- Sevüktekin, Mustafa; Nargeleçekenler, Mehmet (2010), Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi – Eviews Uygulamalı, Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey Marc (2013), Ekonometriye Giriş - Modern Yaklaşım (Ebru Çağlayan, Çev.), Ankara: Nobel Akademi Yayıncılık (2009).
- Zandi, Mark; Cheng, Xu; Packard, Tu (2011), “Fiscal Space”, Moodys Analytics Special Re-port, 1-17.
Abstract
In this paper, it is aimed to examine empirically determinants of primary balance in Turkey. In this direction, it is estimated Turkey’s fiscal reaction function by using annual data between 1986-2017 through Ordinary Least Squares method. Our findings show that the primary balance reacts positively to the increase in debt in Turkey. But this reaction decelerates with the increase in the debt stock due to fiscal fatigue. In addition, the primary balance reacts output gap, government expenditure gap, age dependency and trade openness. Consequently, periods of economic recovery, government’s fiscal space and youth employment are highly important to determine a good primary balance level. Also, governments in Turkey focus high current account deficit problem to ensure controlling of the primary balance.
References
- Abiad, Abdul; Ostry, Jonathan (2005), “Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries”, IMF Policy Discussion Paper, PDP/05/6: 1-18.
- Barro, Robert (1979), “On the determination of the public debt”, Journal of Political Econ-omy, C.87, S.5: 940-971.
- Bastos, Fabiano; Pineda, Emilio (2013), “Fiscal Space of Brazilian States”, Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, IDB-DP-310: 1-20.
- Bohn, Henning (1998), “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits”, The Quarterly Jour-nal of Economics, 949-963.
- Bohn, Henning (2008), “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States”, CESifo Working Paper Series, 1446: 15-49.
- Celasun, Oya; Debrun, Xaiver; Ostry, Jonathan (2007), “Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A “Fan-Chart” Approach”, IMF Staff Pa-pers, Vol.53, No.3: 401-425.
- Ghosh, Atish; Kim, Jun; Mendoza, Enrique; Ostry, Jonathan; Qureshi, Mahvash (2013), “Fis-cal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”, The Economic Jour-nal, 123: F4-F30.
- Gujarati, Damodar; Porter, Dawn (2012), Temel Ekonometri (Ümit Şenesen ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Çev.), İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları (2009).
- Hajnovič, Frantisek; Zeman, Juraj (2013), “Fiscal Space in the Euro Zone”, Narodna Banka Slovenska, Vol.21, No.2: 9-14.
- International Monetary Fund (Uluslararası Para Fonu) (2003), “Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?”, World Economic Outlook, 113-152.
- Knack, Stephen; Keefer, Philip (1995), “Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures”, Economics and Politics, C.7, S.3: 207-227.
- Mendoza, Enrique; Ostry, Jonathan (2008), “International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy “Responsible”?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 55: 1081-1093.
- Nerlich, Carolin; Reuter, Heinrich (2015), “Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space and Procyclical Fiscal Policy”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No.1872: 1-30.
- Ostry, Jonathan; Ghosh, Atish; Kim, Jun; Qureshi, Mahvash (2010), “Fiscal Space”, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/11: 1-24.
- Park, Seok Gil (2012), “Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space”, IMF Work-ing Paper, WP/12/164: 1-24.
- Sevüktekin, Mustafa; Nargeleçekenler, Mehmet (2010), Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi – Eviews Uygulamalı, Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey Marc (2013), Ekonometriye Giriş - Modern Yaklaşım (Ebru Çağlayan, Çev.), Ankara: Nobel Akademi Yayıncılık (2009).
- Zandi, Mark; Cheng, Xu; Packard, Tu (2011), “Fiscal Space”, Moodys Analytics Special Re-port, 1-17.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | August 1, 2020 |
| Submission Date | December 12, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2020 Volume: 15 Issue: 2 |
