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Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Gelirleri: Public Expenditures and Revenues in Turkey: An Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Year 2010, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 129 - 146, 01.10.2010

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Hata düzeltme modeli ve Toda‐Yamamoto yöntemleri kullanıla‐ rak yapılan çalışmada, 1987:1 ve 2005:04 arasın‐ daki dönemde kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelir‐ leri arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olmasına rağmen, nedensellik olmadığı sonucuna ulaşıl‐ mıştır. Bu sonuç, kamu harcamaların kısılması ve/veya vergilerin artırılmasının bütçe açıklarını azaltmada etkili olabileceğini ifade etmektedir.

References

  • AbuAl‐Foul, B. ve H. Baghestani (2004), “The Causal Relation between Govern‐ ment Revenue and Spending: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan”, Journal of Eco‐ nomics and Finance, 38 (2), 260‐269.
  • Akçoraoğlu, A. (1998), “Kamu Harcamaları, Kamu Gelirleri ve Keynesçi Politikalar: Bir Nedensellik Testi”, Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2 (99), 51‐65.
  • Baghestani, H ve R. McNown (1994), “Do Revenues and Expenditures Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?”, Southern Economic Journal, 60, 311‐322.
  • Bağımsız Sosyal Bilimciler (2007), IMF Gözetiminde On Uzun Yıl, 1998‐2008: Farklı Hükümetler, Tek Siyaset, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Barro, R. J. (1979), “On the Determination of Public Debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 81, 940‐971.
  • Bohn, H. (1991), “Budget Balance through Revenue or Spending Adjustments? Some Historical Evidence for United States”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 27, 333‐359.
  • Boratav, K. (2003), Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908‐2002, 7. Baskı, Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
  • Brown, R. L. ve J. Durbin ve J. M. Evans (1975), “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relations Overtime”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(13), 149‐163.
  • Buchanan, J. ve R. Wagner (1978), “Dialogues Concerning Fiscal Religion”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 4, 627‐636.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve W. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 727‐431.
  • Darrat, A. (1998), “Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry of the Turkish Budgetary Process”, Southern Economic Journal, 64, 940‐956.
  • DPT (2007), Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler (1950‐2004), http://www.ekutup.dpt.gov.tr, (Erişim: 20 Temmuz 2007).
  • Friedman, M. (1978), “The Limitations of Tax Limitation”, Policy Review, 7‐14.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, 48‐58.
  • Günaydın, İ. (2000), “Türkiye’de Kamu Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Arasındaki Nedensel İlişkiler”, SDÜ, İİBF Dergisi, 5 (1), 55‐74.
  • Günaydın, İ. (2004a), “Gelir ve Harcama Ayarlamaları Yoluyla Bütçe Dengesi Sağla‐ nabilir mi? Türkiye Örneği”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 19(218), 84‐98.
  • Günaydın, İ. (2004b), “Vergi‐Harcama Tartışması: Türkiye Örneği”, Doğuş Üniversi‐ tesi Dergisi, 5(2), 163‐181.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. ve E. Papapetrou (1996), “An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Choice, 89, 363‐374.
  • Hoover, K. D. ve S. M. Sheffrin (1992), “Causation, Spending, and Taxes: Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State?”, American Economic Review, 82 (1), 225‐48.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231‐54.
  • Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gausssian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59, s. 1551‐1580.
  • Johansen, S. ve K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration‐with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169‐210.
  • Kollias, C. ve S. M. Paleologou (2006), “Fiscal Policy in the European Union, Tax and Spend, Spend and Tax, Fiscal Syncronisation or Institutional Separation?”, Journal of Economic Studies, 33, 108‐120.
  • Maliye Bakanlığı (2007), Kamu Hesapları Bülteni, http://www.muhasebat.gov.tr, (Erişim: 20 Temmuz 2007).
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005), “The Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Nine Asian Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 1203‐1216.
  • Narayan, P. K. ve S. Narayan (2006), “Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Developing Countries”, Applied Economics, 38, 285‐291.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, Ed. R.F. Engle ve C. W. J. Granger , Long‐run Economic Relations: Reading in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 267‐276.
  • Meltzer, A. H. ve S. F. Richard (1981), “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government”, Journal of Political Economy, 89, 914‐927.
  • Musgrave, R. (1966), “Principles of Budget Determination”, Ed. H. Cameron ve W. Henderson, Public Finance, Selected Readings, New York: Random House.
  • Oyan, O. (1998), Türkiye Ekonomisi: Nereden Nereye?, Ankara: İmaj Yayıncılık.
  • Payne, J. E. (2003), “A Survey of the International Empirical Evidence on the Tax‐ Spend Debate”, Public Finance Review, 31 (3), 302‐324.
  • Peacock, A. T. ve J. Wiseman (1979), “Approaches to the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth”, Public Finance Quarterly, 7, 3‐23.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron, (1998), “Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, 335‐346.
  • Pınar, A. (1999), “A Model of Government Expenditures in Turkey”, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 9(2), 55‐71.
  • Toda H.Y. and P. C. B. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inferences in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225‐250.
  • Wildavsky, A. (1988), The New Politics of the Budgetary Process, Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman.

Public Expenditures and Revenues in Turkey: An Investigation on Causality

Year 2010, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 129 - 146, 01.10.2010

Abstract

This paper investigates the evidence for cointegration government revenue and expenditure for Turkey over the period 1987:01‐2005:04. The results from Yamamoto method suggest that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in either direction. This finding supports the idea that either reducing expenditures or raising taxes can decrease the budget deficit in Turkey.

References

  • AbuAl‐Foul, B. ve H. Baghestani (2004), “The Causal Relation between Govern‐ ment Revenue and Spending: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan”, Journal of Eco‐ nomics and Finance, 38 (2), 260‐269.
  • Akçoraoğlu, A. (1998), “Kamu Harcamaları, Kamu Gelirleri ve Keynesçi Politikalar: Bir Nedensellik Testi”, Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2 (99), 51‐65.
  • Baghestani, H ve R. McNown (1994), “Do Revenues and Expenditures Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?”, Southern Economic Journal, 60, 311‐322.
  • Bağımsız Sosyal Bilimciler (2007), IMF Gözetiminde On Uzun Yıl, 1998‐2008: Farklı Hükümetler, Tek Siyaset, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Barro, R. J. (1979), “On the Determination of Public Debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 81, 940‐971.
  • Bohn, H. (1991), “Budget Balance through Revenue or Spending Adjustments? Some Historical Evidence for United States”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 27, 333‐359.
  • Boratav, K. (2003), Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908‐2002, 7. Baskı, Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
  • Brown, R. L. ve J. Durbin ve J. M. Evans (1975), “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relations Overtime”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(13), 149‐163.
  • Buchanan, J. ve R. Wagner (1978), “Dialogues Concerning Fiscal Religion”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 4, 627‐636.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve W. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 727‐431.
  • Darrat, A. (1998), “Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry of the Turkish Budgetary Process”, Southern Economic Journal, 64, 940‐956.
  • DPT (2007), Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler (1950‐2004), http://www.ekutup.dpt.gov.tr, (Erişim: 20 Temmuz 2007).
  • Friedman, M. (1978), “The Limitations of Tax Limitation”, Policy Review, 7‐14.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, 48‐58.
  • Günaydın, İ. (2000), “Türkiye’de Kamu Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Arasındaki Nedensel İlişkiler”, SDÜ, İİBF Dergisi, 5 (1), 55‐74.
  • Günaydın, İ. (2004a), “Gelir ve Harcama Ayarlamaları Yoluyla Bütçe Dengesi Sağla‐ nabilir mi? Türkiye Örneği”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 19(218), 84‐98.
  • Günaydın, İ. (2004b), “Vergi‐Harcama Tartışması: Türkiye Örneği”, Doğuş Üniversi‐ tesi Dergisi, 5(2), 163‐181.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. ve E. Papapetrou (1996), “An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Choice, 89, 363‐374.
  • Hoover, K. D. ve S. M. Sheffrin (1992), “Causation, Spending, and Taxes: Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State?”, American Economic Review, 82 (1), 225‐48.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231‐54.
  • Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gausssian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59, s. 1551‐1580.
  • Johansen, S. ve K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration‐with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169‐210.
  • Kollias, C. ve S. M. Paleologou (2006), “Fiscal Policy in the European Union, Tax and Spend, Spend and Tax, Fiscal Syncronisation or Institutional Separation?”, Journal of Economic Studies, 33, 108‐120.
  • Maliye Bakanlığı (2007), Kamu Hesapları Bülteni, http://www.muhasebat.gov.tr, (Erişim: 20 Temmuz 2007).
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005), “The Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Nine Asian Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 1203‐1216.
  • Narayan, P. K. ve S. Narayan (2006), “Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Developing Countries”, Applied Economics, 38, 285‐291.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, Ed. R.F. Engle ve C. W. J. Granger , Long‐run Economic Relations: Reading in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 267‐276.
  • Meltzer, A. H. ve S. F. Richard (1981), “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government”, Journal of Political Economy, 89, 914‐927.
  • Musgrave, R. (1966), “Principles of Budget Determination”, Ed. H. Cameron ve W. Henderson, Public Finance, Selected Readings, New York: Random House.
  • Oyan, O. (1998), Türkiye Ekonomisi: Nereden Nereye?, Ankara: İmaj Yayıncılık.
  • Payne, J. E. (2003), “A Survey of the International Empirical Evidence on the Tax‐ Spend Debate”, Public Finance Review, 31 (3), 302‐324.
  • Peacock, A. T. ve J. Wiseman (1979), “Approaches to the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth”, Public Finance Quarterly, 7, 3‐23.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron, (1998), “Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, 335‐346.
  • Pınar, A. (1999), “A Model of Government Expenditures in Turkey”, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 9(2), 55‐71.
  • Toda H.Y. and P. C. B. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inferences in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225‐250.
  • Wildavsky, A. (1988), The New Politics of the Budgetary Process, Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman.
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Anıl Akçağlayan This is me

Meltem Kayıran This is me

Publication Date October 1, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2010 Volume: 5 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Akçağlayan, A., & Kayıran, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Gelirleri: Public Expenditures and Revenues in Turkey: An Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(2), 129-146.