Abstract
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kamu açıkları, iç borç ve faiz oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi nedensellik ve çok değişkenli VAR modeli kullanarak 1980-2012 dönemi için yıllık verilerle incelemektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, faiz oranın enflasyonun Granger nedeni olduğunu ve ayrıca iç borçlardan enflasyona doğru bir Granger nedensellik ilişkisi göstermektedir. Ek olarak, bir diğer tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi ise enflasyondan kamu açıklarına doğrudur. Sonuçta incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de faiz oranları kamu açıklarını enflasyon aracığı ile etkilemektedir.
Keywords
References
- Aisen, A., D. Hauner (2008), “Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: a Fresh Perspecve”, IMF Working Paper 08/42.
- Aksu, H., Ö. S. Emsen, S. Başar (2001), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ile Nominal ve Reel Faiz Oranları İlişkileri: 1985-2000”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1-2): 43-53.
- Barro, R. J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82 (6),1095–1117.
- Buchanan, J. M., M. R. Flowers; (1987), The Public Finances An Introductory Textbook, Sixth Edition, Irwin, Illinois.
- Cebula, R. J.(2000), “Impact of Budget Deficits on Ex Post Real Long Term Interest Rates”, Applied Economic Letters, 7: 177-179.
- Cheng, B. J.(1998), “The Causality Between Budget Deficit and Interest Rates in Japan: An Application of Time Series Analysis”, Applied Economic Letters, 5, 4194
- Dornbush, R., S. Fischer; (1994), Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition, International Edition, McGraw Hill. Literatür Yayıncılık, Turkey.
- Elmendorf, D.W.(1996), “The Effects of Deficit Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 1996-44, Federal Reserve Board. Enders, W.(2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: John Wiley and Sons INC.
Abstract
This study, investigates relationship among public deficits, public domestic debt and interest rate in Turkey by causality and multivariable vector autoregression (VAR) analysis for the period 1980-2012 by using annual series. The empirical results suggest that interest rate is Granger cause of inflation and also there is a Granger causality running from domestic debt to inflation. Additionally an other uni-directional causality runs from inflation to public debt. As a result in the period studied for Turkey its concluded that interest rates effect public deficits in relation with inflation.
References
- Aisen, A., D. Hauner (2008), “Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: a Fresh Perspecve”, IMF Working Paper 08/42.
- Aksu, H., Ö. S. Emsen, S. Başar (2001), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ile Nominal ve Reel Faiz Oranları İlişkileri: 1985-2000”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1-2): 43-53.
- Barro, R. J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82 (6),1095–1117.
- Buchanan, J. M., M. R. Flowers; (1987), The Public Finances An Introductory Textbook, Sixth Edition, Irwin, Illinois.
- Cebula, R. J.(2000), “Impact of Budget Deficits on Ex Post Real Long Term Interest Rates”, Applied Economic Letters, 7: 177-179.
- Cheng, B. J.(1998), “The Causality Between Budget Deficit and Interest Rates in Japan: An Application of Time Series Analysis”, Applied Economic Letters, 5, 4194
- Dornbush, R., S. Fischer; (1994), Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition, International Edition, McGraw Hill. Literatür Yayıncılık, Turkey.
- Elmendorf, D.W.(1996), “The Effects of Deficit Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 1996-44, Federal Reserve Board. Enders, W.(2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: John Wiley and Sons INC.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | November 2, 2014 |
| Submission Date | November 2, 2014 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2014 Volume: 9 Issue: 1 |