Abstract
This paper aims to examine the causal relationships between foreign direct investments (FDI) and exports in eight developing countries by using augmented Granger causality tests over the period 1980-2009. The empirical results of Toda-Yamamoto test indicate that there is a causal relationship between variables running from FDI to exports for Poland and Mexico, while the direction of causality is from exports to FDI for Pakistan and Turkey. Dolado-Lütkepohl test’s findings exhibit that there is a uni-directional causality running from FDI to exports for Poland, while the direction of causality is from exports to FDI for Pakistan and Tayland. Here, there is no bi-directional causality between variables in both tests. Consequently, developing countries should sustain to generate and implement the policies based on exports and FDI. The outward-looking development strategies of developing countries should encompass both export-support strategy and FDI-support strategy.
References
- Abdullahi, A., Enjang, C. ve G. Messinis (2007), “Causal Links between Export, FDI and Output: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries”, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Working Paper No. 35.
- Alguacil, M. ve V. Orts (2002), “A Multivariate Cointegrated Model Testing for Temporal Causality between Exports and Outward Foreign Investment: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34, 119-132.
- Alıcı, A. A. ve M. Ş. Ucal (2003), “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Output Growth Of Turkey: Causality Anlysis”, The European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference, 11-13 September 2003 in Madrid.
- Baliamoune-Lutz, M. (2004), “Does FDI Contribute to Economic Growth?”, Business Economics, 39(2), 49-56.
- Brainard, S. L. (1993), “An Empirical Assessment of the Factor Proportions Explanation of Multinational Sales”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, No. 4583.
- Clements, K.W. ve L.A. Sjaastad (1984), “How Protection Taxes Exporters?”, Thames Essays No. 33, Trade Policy Research Centre: London.
- Dickey, D. A. ve W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for an Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
- Dolado, J. L. ve H. Lütkepohl (1996), “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15, 369-386.
- Dunning, J. H. (1993), Multinational Enterprises and The Global Economy, Glos, UK: Addison-Wesley.
- Dunning, J. H. (1969), The Role of American Investment in the British Economy, London: Politics and Economic Planning.
- Dunning, J. H. (1977), “Trade, Location of Economic Activity and the Multinational Enterprise: A Search for an Eclectic Approach” in Ohlin, B., Hesselborn and Wijkman, P. M. (eds), “The International Allocation of Economic Activity”, Macmillan, London, 395-418.
- Dunning, J. H. (1981), International Production and the Multinational Enterprise, Allen & Unwin, London.
- Falk, M. ve M. Hake (2008), A Panel Data Analysis on FDI and Exports, FIW Research Report, No. 12.
Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve İhracat İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Nedensellik Analizi
Abstract
Bu çalışma, 1980-2009 döneminde VAR yöntemine dayalı geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testlerini kullanarak sekiz gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomisi için doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini inceler. Toda-Yamamoto test sonuçları; Polonya ve Meksika ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan ihracata doğru işleyen tek yönlü bir nedensellik, Pakistan ve Türkiye’de ise ihracattan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara doğru işleyen tek yönlü bir nedensellik tespit etmiştir. Dolado-Lütkepohl test sonuçlarına göre; Polonya’da doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan ihracata doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik, Tayland ve Pakistan ekonomilerinde ihracattan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik söz konusudur. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik bulgusuna rastlanmamıştır. Sonuç olarak, gelişmekte olan ülkeler ihracat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar odaklı politikalar üretmeye ve uygulamaya devam etmelidir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dışa dönük kalkınma stratejileri, ihracatı ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımları destek stratejilerini kapsamalıdır.
References
- Abdullahi, A., Enjang, C. ve G. Messinis (2007), “Causal Links between Export, FDI and Output: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries”, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Working Paper No. 35.
- Alguacil, M. ve V. Orts (2002), “A Multivariate Cointegrated Model Testing for Temporal Causality between Exports and Outward Foreign Investment: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34, 119-132.
- Alıcı, A. A. ve M. Ş. Ucal (2003), “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Output Growth Of Turkey: Causality Anlysis”, The European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference, 11-13 September 2003 in Madrid.
- Baliamoune-Lutz, M. (2004), “Does FDI Contribute to Economic Growth?”, Business Economics, 39(2), 49-56.
- Brainard, S. L. (1993), “An Empirical Assessment of the Factor Proportions Explanation of Multinational Sales”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, No. 4583.
- Clements, K.W. ve L.A. Sjaastad (1984), “How Protection Taxes Exporters?”, Thames Essays No. 33, Trade Policy Research Centre: London.
- Dickey, D. A. ve W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for an Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
- Dolado, J. L. ve H. Lütkepohl (1996), “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15, 369-386.
- Dunning, J. H. (1993), Multinational Enterprises and The Global Economy, Glos, UK: Addison-Wesley.
- Dunning, J. H. (1969), The Role of American Investment in the British Economy, London: Politics and Economic Planning.
- Dunning, J. H. (1977), “Trade, Location of Economic Activity and the Multinational Enterprise: A Search for an Eclectic Approach” in Ohlin, B., Hesselborn and Wijkman, P. M. (eds), “The International Allocation of Economic Activity”, Macmillan, London, 395-418.
- Dunning, J. H. (1981), International Production and the Multinational Enterprise, Allen & Unwin, London.
- Falk, M. ve M. Hake (2008), A Panel Data Analysis on FDI and Exports, FIW Research Report, No. 12.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | March 1, 2013 |
| Submission Date | November 2, 2014 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2013 Volume: 8 Issue: 1 |