Reasons, Financing Quality and Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis
Abstract
In recent years, Turkey's most important economic problem is high current account deficit. Current account deficit must be brought under control so as to maintain the macroeconomic balances and to ensure the sustainable economic growth. In this context, the analysis of the reasons, financing quality and sustainability of the current account deficit is of great importance. In this study, the reasons and financing quality of current account deficit in Turkey have been investigated via VAR method. Tthe sustainability of the current account deficit has been analyzed by means of Johansen and VEC method, by using the data of the 1996: M01-2012: M01 period. According to the results of the analysis; the current account deficit is weakly sustainable in Turkey.
References
- Akçay, C. ve Ş. Özler (1998), “Current Account Position of the Turkish Economy: Is There any Cause for Concern?”, Bogazici Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12(1), 39-53.
- Akdiş, M., O. Peker ve Ş. Görmüş (2006) “Is The Turkish Current Account Deficit Sustainable? An Econometric Analysis”, http://makdis.pamukkale.edu.tr/Mak22.htm, (Erişim: 08.04.2012).
- Apergis, N., K. P. Katrakilis ve N. M. Tabakis (2000), “Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Greece”, Applied Economics Letters, (7), 599-603.
- Aydoğuş, İ. ve H. Öztürkler (2006), Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığı Sorununun Analizi, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
- Baharumshah, A.Z., E. Lau ve S. Fountas (2003), “On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence From Four ASEAN Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics,14(3),465-487.
- Bayraktutan, Y. ve I. Demirtaş (2011), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açığın Belirleyi-cileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 22(2), 1-28.
- Bernstein, M. A. ve J. Griffin (2005), “Regional Differences in the Price-Elasticity of Demand for Energy”, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Report, Rand Corporation.
- Charemza, W.W. ve D.F. Deadman (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Aldershot, Hanst: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
- Chen, S.W. (2011), “Current Account Deficits and Sustainability: Evidence From the OECD Countries”, Economic Modelling, 28, 1455-1464.
- Corsetti, G., P. Pesenti ve N. Roubini (1999), “Paper Tigers? A model of the Asian Crisis”, European Economic Review, 43 (7), 1211-1236.
- Dornbusch, R. ve F. Fischer (1990), Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, International Editions.
- Edson, H. (2003), “Do Indicators of Financial Crisis Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8 (1), 11-53.
- Edwards, S. (2001), “Does The Current Account Matter?”, NBER Working Paper, w8275, 38.
Abstract
Son yıllarda Türkiye’nin en önemli ekonomik sorunu, yüksek cari işlemler açığıdır. Makroekonomik dengelerin korunması ve istikrarlı ekonomik büyümenin sağlanabilmesi için, cari açığın kontrol altına alınması gerekmektedir. Bu bağlamda cari açığın nedenlerinin, finansman kalitesinin ve sürdürülebilirliğinin analiz edilmesi önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının nedenleri ve finansman kalitesi; VAR modeliyle, sürdürülebilirliği; Johansen ve VEC yöntemleriyle, 1996: M01-2012: M01 dönemi verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, Türkiye’de cari açığın zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Keywords
Cari Açık Nedenleri Finansman Kalitesi Sürdürülebilirlik. Reasons Financing Quality and Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis
References
- Akçay, C. ve Ş. Özler (1998), “Current Account Position of the Turkish Economy: Is There any Cause for Concern?”, Bogazici Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12(1), 39-53.
- Akdiş, M., O. Peker ve Ş. Görmüş (2006) “Is The Turkish Current Account Deficit Sustainable? An Econometric Analysis”, http://makdis.pamukkale.edu.tr/Mak22.htm, (Erişim: 08.04.2012).
- Apergis, N., K. P. Katrakilis ve N. M. Tabakis (2000), “Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Greece”, Applied Economics Letters, (7), 599-603.
- Aydoğuş, İ. ve H. Öztürkler (2006), Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığı Sorununun Analizi, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
- Baharumshah, A.Z., E. Lau ve S. Fountas (2003), “On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence From Four ASEAN Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics,14(3),465-487.
- Bayraktutan, Y. ve I. Demirtaş (2011), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açığın Belirleyi-cileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 22(2), 1-28.
- Bernstein, M. A. ve J. Griffin (2005), “Regional Differences in the Price-Elasticity of Demand for Energy”, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Report, Rand Corporation.
- Charemza, W.W. ve D.F. Deadman (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Aldershot, Hanst: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
- Chen, S.W. (2011), “Current Account Deficits and Sustainability: Evidence From the OECD Countries”, Economic Modelling, 28, 1455-1464.
- Corsetti, G., P. Pesenti ve N. Roubini (1999), “Paper Tigers? A model of the Asian Crisis”, European Economic Review, 43 (7), 1211-1236.
- Dornbusch, R. ve F. Fischer (1990), Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, International Editions.
- Edson, H. (2003), “Do Indicators of Financial Crisis Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8 (1), 11-53.
- Edwards, S. (2001), “Does The Current Account Matter?”, NBER Working Paper, w8275, 38.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | March 1, 2013 |
| Submission Date | November 2, 2014 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2013 Volume: 8 Issue: 1 |