The Effectiveness of the Housing Channel in Monetary Policy

Year 2022, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 345 - 367, 01.08.2022

Muharrem Afşar Güntülü Özlem Yüksel

Abstract

Developments in the housing sector conduct the economic agents' expectations and play an important role in economic functioning by creating effects on macroeconomic variables. The aim of the study is to examine the role of the housing sector in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the Turkish economy. The study highlights the role of monetary policy, credit supply, and housing price shocks. This study using the SVAR approach states that the housing channel works effectively in Turkey, showing a negative and a significant effect of contractionary monetary policy shock on housing prices and housing loan supply during the period 2011Q1-2021Q1. The detection of the significant effects of housing price changes on consumption and inflation also is among the findings of the study.

Keywords

Housing Sector, Transmission Mechanism, SVAR, Monetary Policy

Para Politikasında Konut Kanalının Etkinliği

Abstract

Konut sektöründeki gelişmeler, ekonomik birimlerin beklentilerini yönlendirmekte ve makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde etkiler yaratarak ekonomik işleyişte önemli rol üstlenmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası şoklarının aktarılmasında konut sektörünün rolünü araştırmaktır. Çalışmada, para politikası şokları, kredi arz şokları ve konut fiyat şoklarının rolü öne çıkarılmaktadır. SVAR yaklaşımından yararlanılarak tahmin edilen modelde, 2011Q1-2021Q1 dönemi için Türkiye’de konut kanalının etkin bir işleyişe sahip olduğu ve daraltıcı para politikası şokuna bağlı olarak konut fiyatları ve konut kredi arzı üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etki yarattığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca konut fiyat değişimlerinin tüketim ve enflasyon üzerinde önemli etkilerinin tespiti de çalışmanın bulguları arasında yer almaktadır.

Keywords

Konut Sektörü, Aktarım Mekanizması, Yapısal VAR, Para Politikası

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