Debates Over the Trilemma and Dilemma Hypotheses within the Framework of Monetary Policy Independence Following the 2008 Crisis

Year 2023, Volume: 18 Issue: 2, 549 - 572, 01.08.2023

Nagehan Keskin

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1242861

Abstract

Based on the findings of empirical studies examining the trilemma-dilemma debate, this study aims to offer a general overview of this debate and light the way for future studies. We note that although some studies investigating the validity of the trilemma hypothesis conclude that it is still valid, others have found evidence in support of the dilemma hypothesis. Furthermore, a limited number of studies report that both hypotheses are partially valid. Examining the findings of these empirical studies as a whole, we can say that although flexible exchange rates continue to provide peripheral countries with more monetary independence, the steady increase in financial integration is weakening the shock-absorbing role played by the exchange rate today.

Keywords

Trilemma, Dilemma, Monetary Policy Independence

2008 Krizi Sonrasında Para Politikası Bağımsızlığı Çerçevesinde İmkânsız Üçleme ve İkilem Hipotezine İlişkin Tartışmalar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, literatürde süregelen üçleme-ikilem tartışmaları ile ilgili ampirik çalışmaların bulgularından hareketle, tartışmaya genel bir bakış açısı sağlamayı ve gelecekteki araştırmalara ışık tutmayı amaçlamaktadır. Üçleme hipotezinin geçerliliğini araştıran çalışmalardan bazılarında, üçleme hipotezinin geçerliliğini koruduğu sonucuna ulaşılırken, bazı çalışmalarda ikilem hipotezini destekleyen kanıtlar elde edilmiştir. Sınırlı sayıda çalışmada ise üçleme ve ikilem hipotezinin kısmen geçerli olduğuna ilişkin bulgular ortaya konulmuştur. İncelenen ampirik çalışmaların sonuçları bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde; esnek döviz kurları çevre ülkelere daha fazla parasal bağımsızlık sağlamaya devam etmekle birlikte, günümüzde giderek artan finansal entegrasyonla birlikte döviz kurunun şok emici rolünün zayıfladığını söylemek mümkündür.

Keywords

İmkansız Üçleme, İkilem, Para Politikası Bağımsızlığı

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