Forecastıng Method Selectıon For Capacıty Plannıng In Servıce Systems

Year 2007, Volume: 20 Issue: 1, 137 - 150, 30.06.2007

Ezgi Aktar Demirtaş , A.sermet Anagün

Abstract

Although service firms tend to estimate the number of customers in a sensitive manner, the structure of the service is changeable on a large scale. Under these circumstances, choosing the most suitable forecasting method is a quite important decision. In this paper, a rule-based Expert Forecasting Method Selector (EFMS) was built by using PROLOG to capture the skill and aimed to act as an advisor for choosing appropriate method. EFMS was designed based on specific criteria to cover both qualitative and quantitative methods that may be applied to service systems. The EFMS also provides users fundamental info about forecasting methods and a chance of making calculation related to the selected method. 

Keywords

Expert Systems, Forecasting Methods, PROLOG, Service Systems..

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