Jeopolitik Risklerin Küresel Enerji ve Gıda Fiyatları Üzerinde Zamanla Değişen Etkileri

Year 2024, Volume: 25 Issue: 3, 775 - 791, 01.11.2024

Fatih Ceylan

Abstract

Bu çalışma, giderek daha önemli bir belirsizlik faktörü haline gelen jeopolitik risklerin küresel enerji ve gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, zamana göre değişen parametreli vektör otoregresif (TVP-VAR) modelinin kullanıldığı çalışmada 1992:01-2024:02 dönemi aralığı ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada, jeopolitik risklerin enerji fiyatları ve gıda fiyatları üzerindeki zamanla değişen etkisinin yanı sıra enerji fiyatlarının gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi de incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, jeopolitik risklerin küresel enerji ve gıda fiyatlarına etkilerinin zamanla değiştiğini ve genellikle beklenenden daha düşük düzeylerde olduğunu göstermektedir. Enerji fiyatlarının gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkisinin ise 2006 sonrasında pozitif olduğu görülmektedir. Bu durum, ekonomik istikrarın sürdürülmesi için uluslararası ekonomik faktörlerin dikkate alınması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca, politika yapıcıların enflasyon hedeflemesi gibi para politikalarını uygularken jeopolitik riskleri dikkate almaları ve bu risklere yönelik stratejiler geliştirmeleri ekonomik istikrarı destekleyecektir.

Keywords

Jeopolitik riskler, TVP-VAR modeli, Enerji fiyatları, Gıda fiyatları

Time-Varying Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Global Energy and Food Prices

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the effects of geopolitical risks, which have become an increasingly important uncertainty factor, on global energy and food prices. To this end, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is used for the period 1992:01-2024:02. The study analyses the time-varying impact of geopolitical risks on energy prices and food prices as well as the impact of energy prices on food prices. The findings show that the effects of geopolitical risks on global energy and food prices change over time and are generally lower than expected. The impact of energy prices on food prices has been positive after 2006. This emphasises the need to take international economic factors into account in order to maintain economic stability. Moreover, policymakers should take geopolitical risks into account when implementing monetary policies such as inflation targeting and develop strategies to address these risks, which will support economic stability.

Keywords

Geopolitical risks, TVP-VAR model, Food prices, Energy prices

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