MODELLING ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS: AGENT-BASED APPROACH

Year 2025, Volume: 18 Issue: 2, 566 - 585, 30.04.2025

Gizem Eren

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1471855

Abstract

In recent years, there has been increased interest in using agent-based modeling to simulate climate change's effects on agricultural output. Agent-based modeling allows for a more detailed and nuanced understanding of how individual agents, such as farmers, make decisions in response to changing environmental conditions. By simulating interactions between these agents and their environment, we can better anticipate how different adaptation strategies may impact overall agricultural productivity. This approach also enables the exploration of various scenarios and their potential outcomes, providing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. Agent-based models offer the advantage of simulating the decision-making process of individual entities and their interactions, integrating social dynamics and non-financial factors into decision-making, and establishing dynamic connections between social and environmental processes. In this paper, we review the agent-based climate change adaptation models that have been developed around the questions of (a) who adapts, (b) who adapts to what, (c) how adaptation occurs, and (d) what constitutes good adaptation. From there, we aim to show how these models simplify the process of perceiving the world by approximating reality. While at the same time recognizing the constraints of the model itself and the uncertainties, we also discuss whether they can be overcome.

Keywords

Climate Change , Agent-based Model , Decision-making

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