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TERÖR VE TURİZM İLİŞKİSİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ANALİZİ: AB VE MENA ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2016, Volume: 9 Issue: 4, 69 - 83, 31.10.2016

Ceyhun Can Özcan , İbrahim Özmen

Abstract

Bu çalışmada terörizm ile ülkeye gelen turist sayısı arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmektedir. Ayrıca çalışmada turizmin genel ekonomi içindeki yeri ve terör kavramının tarihsel gelişim süreci kısaca ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmada, 26 Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkesi ve 13 Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) için 2002-2013 dönemini kapsayan veri seti yardımıyla panel birim kök, panel eşbütünleşme, tahmincileri kullanılarak terör değişkenlerinin turist sayısı üzerinde etkili olup olmadığı test edilmektedir.

Ampirik analizlerden elde edilen bulgular oluşturulan modeldeki terör değişkeninin turist sayısı üzerinde beklenilen etkilerini gösterdiğine dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Çalışmada AB için terör faaliyetleri-turizm ilişkisi oldukça zayıf ve anlamsız iken MENA ülkeleri için bu ilişki negatif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur.

References

  • AHLFELDT, G. M., FRANKE, B., & MAENNİG, W. (2015). Terrorism and Internatioanl Tourism:The Case of Germany. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 3-21 I.235 (1).
  • ARCHER, B., & FLETCHER, J. (1996). The Economic İmpact of Tourism in the Seychelles. Annals of Tourism Research, 32-47 S. 23(1).
  • BAKER, D. M. (2014 Vol.2: Iss.1, Article 9.). The Effects of Terrorism on the Travel and Tourism Industry. International Journal of Religious and Pilgrimage, 58-67.
  • BALAGUER, J., & M.CANTAVELLE-JORDA. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 877-884 S. 34 (7).
  • BOBBİTT, P. (2008). Terror and Consent. Allen Lane.
  • CHALIAND, G., & BLIN, A. (2007). The History of Terrorism From Antquity to Al Qaeda. Los Angeles: University of California Press.
  • CİMENT, J. (2011). World Terrorism An Encyclopedia of Political Violence From Ancient Time to the Post-9/11 Era. London And New York: Routledge .
  • DRAKOS, K., & KUTAN, A. M. (2003). Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: Evidence From three Mediterranean Countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 621-641 v.(47).
  • EDMONDS, C., & MAK, J. (2006). Terrorism and Tourism in the Asia Pasific Region: Is Travel And Tourism in a New World After 9/11 ? EAST-WEST CENTER WORKİNG PAPER, 3-29 No (86).
  • ENDERS, W., & SANDLER, T. (2006). Distribution of Transnaional Terrorism among Countries by Income Class and Geography after 9/11. International Studies Quarterly, 531-554 C. 50 (2).
  • HADRİ, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panels. Econometrics Journal, 3,148-161.
  • HOLDEN, A. (2008). Environment and Tourism. New York: Routledge.
  • KAO, C., & M.H.CHİANG. (2000). On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, 15, 179-222.
  • KAR, M., & AĞIR, H. (2010). Terörizmin Makro Ekonomik Sonuçları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 12-33.
  • LEVİN, A., LİN, C., & CHU, J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • LUTZ, M., & LUTZ, J. (2008). Global Terrorism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • MAHMOUDİNİA, D., SODERJANİ, E., & POURSHAHBİ, F. (2011). Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts and Exchange Rate in MENA zone: Using Panel Causality Technique. Iranian Economic Review, 130-146 Vol.15, No.29.
  • MARK, N., & SUL, D. (2003). Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 65, no. 5, 655-680.
  • MUSHTAQ, A., & ZAMAN, K. (2014). The Relationship Between Political Instability, Terrorism and Tourism SAARC Region. Journal of Economic Info, 23-40 1(1).
  • NAZLIOĞLU, Ş. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki etkileri: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma. Kayseri: Basılmamış Doktora Tezi Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı.
  • ÖZCAN, C. (2013). Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi. Konya: Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Necmettin ERbakan Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı.
  • ÖZMEN, İ. (2016). Tarihsel Olarak Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri ve BRIC-T Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Konya: Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı.
  • ÖZTÜRK, S., & ÇELİK, K. (2009). Terörizmin Türkiye Ekonomis Üzerine Etkileri. Akdeniz Üniversitesi Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 91-95 S.2.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegrating Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (1), 653-570.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2000). Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels. B. BALTACI içinde, Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels (s. 15, 93-130).
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2001). Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels . Review of Economics and Statistics, 83,727-931.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration, Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597-625.
  • RANGA, M., & PRADHAN, P. (2014). Terrorism terrorizes tourism: Indian Tourism Effacing Myths? International Journal of Safety and Security in Tourism, 26-39 I.(5).
  • SANDLER, T., & ENDERS, W. (2008). Economic Consequences of Terrorism in Developed and Developing Countries: An Overview. P. Keefer, & N. Loayza içinde, Terrorizm, Economic Development and Political Openness (s. 17-47). Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
  • SCHMİD, A. (2005). Terrorism as Psychological Warfare. Democracy and Security, 137-146.
  • SÖNMEZ, S. (1998). Tourism, Terrorism ve Political Instability. Analls of Tourism Research, 416-448 c.25 (2).
  • SÖNMEZ, S., APOSTOLOPOULOS, Y., & TARLOW, P. (1999). Tourism in Crisis:Managinn the Effects of Terrorism. Journal of Travel Research, 13-18 38(1).
  • UNWTO. (2011). UNWTO Annual Report A year of recovery 2010. United Nations: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2012). Annual Report 2011. Madrid: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2013). Annual Report 2012. Madrid: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2014). Annual Report 2013. Madrid: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2015). Annual Report 2014. Madird: UNWTO.
  • VİVERO, R. L. (2010). Terrorism and Arap-Islamic Tourism in the Middle East: An Aconomic Benefit or a Cultural Seclusion. International Politics, 105-136 V. (3).
  • YAYLA, A. (1990). Terör ve Terörizm Kavramlarına Genel Bakış. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 335-385 C.45 (1).

Year 2016, Volume: 9 Issue: 4, 69 - 83, 31.10.2016

Ceyhun Can Özcan , İbrahim Özmen

Abstract

References

  • AHLFELDT, G. M., FRANKE, B., & MAENNİG, W. (2015). Terrorism and Internatioanl Tourism:The Case of Germany. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 3-21 I.235 (1).
  • ARCHER, B., & FLETCHER, J. (1996). The Economic İmpact of Tourism in the Seychelles. Annals of Tourism Research, 32-47 S. 23(1).
  • BAKER, D. M. (2014 Vol.2: Iss.1, Article 9.). The Effects of Terrorism on the Travel and Tourism Industry. International Journal of Religious and Pilgrimage, 58-67.
  • BALAGUER, J., & M.CANTAVELLE-JORDA. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 877-884 S. 34 (7).
  • BOBBİTT, P. (2008). Terror and Consent. Allen Lane.
  • CHALIAND, G., & BLIN, A. (2007). The History of Terrorism From Antquity to Al Qaeda. Los Angeles: University of California Press.
  • CİMENT, J. (2011). World Terrorism An Encyclopedia of Political Violence From Ancient Time to the Post-9/11 Era. London And New York: Routledge .
  • DRAKOS, K., & KUTAN, A. M. (2003). Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: Evidence From three Mediterranean Countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 621-641 v.(47).
  • EDMONDS, C., & MAK, J. (2006). Terrorism and Tourism in the Asia Pasific Region: Is Travel And Tourism in a New World After 9/11 ? EAST-WEST CENTER WORKİNG PAPER, 3-29 No (86).
  • ENDERS, W., & SANDLER, T. (2006). Distribution of Transnaional Terrorism among Countries by Income Class and Geography after 9/11. International Studies Quarterly, 531-554 C. 50 (2).
  • HADRİ, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panels. Econometrics Journal, 3,148-161.
  • HOLDEN, A. (2008). Environment and Tourism. New York: Routledge.
  • KAO, C., & M.H.CHİANG. (2000). On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, 15, 179-222.
  • KAR, M., & AĞIR, H. (2010). Terörizmin Makro Ekonomik Sonuçları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 12-33.
  • LEVİN, A., LİN, C., & CHU, J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • LUTZ, M., & LUTZ, J. (2008). Global Terrorism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • MAHMOUDİNİA, D., SODERJANİ, E., & POURSHAHBİ, F. (2011). Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts and Exchange Rate in MENA zone: Using Panel Causality Technique. Iranian Economic Review, 130-146 Vol.15, No.29.
  • MARK, N., & SUL, D. (2003). Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 65, no. 5, 655-680.
  • MUSHTAQ, A., & ZAMAN, K. (2014). The Relationship Between Political Instability, Terrorism and Tourism SAARC Region. Journal of Economic Info, 23-40 1(1).
  • NAZLIOĞLU, Ş. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki etkileri: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma. Kayseri: Basılmamış Doktora Tezi Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı.
  • ÖZCAN, C. (2013). Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi. Konya: Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Necmettin ERbakan Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı.
  • ÖZMEN, İ. (2016). Tarihsel Olarak Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri ve BRIC-T Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Konya: Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı.
  • ÖZTÜRK, S., & ÇELİK, K. (2009). Terörizmin Türkiye Ekonomis Üzerine Etkileri. Akdeniz Üniversitesi Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 91-95 S.2.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegrating Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (1), 653-570.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2000). Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels. B. BALTACI içinde, Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels (s. 15, 93-130).
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2001). Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels . Review of Economics and Statistics, 83,727-931.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration, Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597-625.
  • RANGA, M., & PRADHAN, P. (2014). Terrorism terrorizes tourism: Indian Tourism Effacing Myths? International Journal of Safety and Security in Tourism, 26-39 I.(5).
  • SANDLER, T., & ENDERS, W. (2008). Economic Consequences of Terrorism in Developed and Developing Countries: An Overview. P. Keefer, & N. Loayza içinde, Terrorizm, Economic Development and Political Openness (s. 17-47). Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
  • SCHMİD, A. (2005). Terrorism as Psychological Warfare. Democracy and Security, 137-146.
  • SÖNMEZ, S. (1998). Tourism, Terrorism ve Political Instability. Analls of Tourism Research, 416-448 c.25 (2).
  • SÖNMEZ, S., APOSTOLOPOULOS, Y., & TARLOW, P. (1999). Tourism in Crisis:Managinn the Effects of Terrorism. Journal of Travel Research, 13-18 38(1).
  • UNWTO. (2011). UNWTO Annual Report A year of recovery 2010. United Nations: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2012). Annual Report 2011. Madrid: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2013). Annual Report 2012. Madrid: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2014). Annual Report 2013. Madrid: UNWTO.
  • UNWTO. (2015). Annual Report 2014. Madird: UNWTO.
  • VİVERO, R. L. (2010). Terrorism and Arap-Islamic Tourism in the Middle East: An Aconomic Benefit or a Cultural Seclusion. International Politics, 105-136 V. (3).
  • YAYLA, A. (1990). Terör ve Terörizm Kavramlarına Genel Bakış. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 335-385 C.45 (1).
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ceyhun Can Özcan

İbrahim Özmen

Publication Date October 31, 2016
Submission Date July 30, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 9 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Özcan, C. C., & Özmen, İ. (2016). TERÖR VE TURİZM İLİŞKİSİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ANALİZİ: AB VE MENA ÖRNEĞİ. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 69-83.
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