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Testing The Convergence Hypothesis for Turkey’s Tourism Markets: Evidence From Fourier Stationary Analysis

Year 2017, Volume: 10 Issue: 4, 205 - 213, 06.10.2017
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.334736

Abstract

Using a dataset covering January-1996 and
December-2015 period, this study tests the convergence hypothesis for the major
tourism markets of Turkey. In this context, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin
(KPSS) test developed through the Fourier function is employed. This test does
not lose power due to unknown number, form, and locations of structural
breaks.  Findings show that the series of
6 (Belgium, Iran, Italy, Russia, England, and Greece) out of 14 countries are
stationary, while the other 8 countries (Bulgaria, United States, Germany, Austria,
France, Netherlands, Israel, and Romania) have nonstationary series. Overall
results seem to be supporting the convergence hypothesis for the 6 countries
with stationary series revealing that it is possible to increase to number of
visitors coming to Turkey from these countries. 

References

  • Abbott, A., De Vita, G., &Altinay, L. (2012). Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach. Tourism Management, 33(3), 537-544.
  • Agyeiwaah, E., &Adongo, R. (2016). Identifying core determinants of tourism demand in Hong Kong in bound markets. International Journal of TourismCities, 2(1), 17-28.
  • Bahar, O., Bozkurt, K., &Dogan, B. (2013). Strivingfor service quality: reality, problems and solutions. SocialSciences (1392-0758), 79(1). Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • DelunaJr, R., &Jeon, N. (2014). Determinants of international tourism demand for the Philippines: an augmented gravity model approach.
  • Du, D., Lew, A. A., &Ng, P. T. (2016). Tourism and economic growth. Journal of Travel Research, 55(4), 454-464.
  • Hepsag, A. (2016). Testing convergence of tourism markets: evidence from seasonal unit roots test. Anatolia, 27(2), 177-188.
  • Ibrahim, M. A. (2013). The determinants of international tourism demand for Egypt: panel data evidence. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 30, ISSN 1450-2275.
  • KhoshnevisYazdi, S., HomaSalehi, K., &Soheilzad, M. (2017). The relationship between tourism, foreign direct investment and economic growth: evidence from Iran. CurrentIssues in Tourism, 20(1), 15-26.
  • Lee, J., &Strazicich, M. (2003). Minimum LM unitroot test with two structural breaks. Department of Economics, University of Central Florida WorkingPaper Series.
  • Lumsdaine, R. L., &Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of economicsandStatistics, 79(2), 212-218.
  • Massidda, C., &Etzo, I. (2012). The determinants of Italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis. Tourism Management, 33(3), 603-610.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2006). Are Australia's tourism markets converging? Applied Economics, 38(10), 1153-1162.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2007). Testing Convergence of Fiji’s Tourism Markets. Pacific Economic Review, 12:5, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00377.x
  • Ozcan, B., &Erdogan, S. (2017). Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unitroottests. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(4), 425-442.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223-232.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2014). Revisiting the convergence hypothesis of tourismmarkets: Evidence from South Africa. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 8(1), 77-92.
  • Solarin, S. A., &Lean, H. H. (2014). Nonlinearity convergence of tourism markets in Seychelles. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(6), 475-479.
  • Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2015). Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth? Tourism management, 46, 158-163.
  • Tang, C. F., &Abosedra, S. (2016). Does tourism expansion effectively spur economic growth in Morocco and Tunisia? Evidence from time series and panel data. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 8(2), 127-145.
  • Tugcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
  • Yilanci, V., &Eris, Z. A. (2012). Are tourism markets of Turkey converging or not? A Fourier stationary analysis. Anatolia, 23(2), 207-216.
  • Zivot, E., &Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of business & economic statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
  • Zuo, B., &Huang, S. (2017). Revisiting the Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis: The Case of China. Journal of Travel Research, 0047287516686725.

Türkiye’nin Turizm Piyasaları İçin Yakınsama Hipotezinin Testi: Fourier Durağanlık Analizi Bulguları

Year 2017, Volume: 10 Issue: 4, 205 - 213, 06.10.2017
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.334736

Abstract

Bu çalışma,
Türkiye’nin temel turizm piyasaları için Ocak 1996-Aralık 2015 döneminde
yakınsama hipotezini test etmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Fourier fonksiyonu
ile geliştirilen, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) testi
kullanılmıştır. Bu test bilinmeyen sayıda, formda ve tarihteki yapısal
kırılmaların olması durumunda da gücünü kaybetmemektedir. Bulgular serilerin,
incelenen 14 ülkeden 6’sı (Belçika, İran, İtalya, Rusya, İngiltere ve
Yunanistan) için durağan, 8’i (Bulgaristan, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri,
Almanya, Avusturya, Fransa, Hollanda, İsrail ve Romanya) için ise durağan
olmadığını göstermektedir. Tüm sonuçlar, serileri durağan bulunan 6 ülke için
yakınsama hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ve böylece bu ülkelerde uygulanacak olan
turizm politikalarıyla Türkiye ‘ye gelen turist sayısının arttırılabileceğini
ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Abbott, A., De Vita, G., &Altinay, L. (2012). Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach. Tourism Management, 33(3), 537-544.
  • Agyeiwaah, E., &Adongo, R. (2016). Identifying core determinants of tourism demand in Hong Kong in bound markets. International Journal of TourismCities, 2(1), 17-28.
  • Bahar, O., Bozkurt, K., &Dogan, B. (2013). Strivingfor service quality: reality, problems and solutions. SocialSciences (1392-0758), 79(1). Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • DelunaJr, R., &Jeon, N. (2014). Determinants of international tourism demand for the Philippines: an augmented gravity model approach.
  • Du, D., Lew, A. A., &Ng, P. T. (2016). Tourism and economic growth. Journal of Travel Research, 55(4), 454-464.
  • Hepsag, A. (2016). Testing convergence of tourism markets: evidence from seasonal unit roots test. Anatolia, 27(2), 177-188.
  • Ibrahim, M. A. (2013). The determinants of international tourism demand for Egypt: panel data evidence. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 30, ISSN 1450-2275.
  • KhoshnevisYazdi, S., HomaSalehi, K., &Soheilzad, M. (2017). The relationship between tourism, foreign direct investment and economic growth: evidence from Iran. CurrentIssues in Tourism, 20(1), 15-26.
  • Lee, J., &Strazicich, M. (2003). Minimum LM unitroot test with two structural breaks. Department of Economics, University of Central Florida WorkingPaper Series.
  • Lumsdaine, R. L., &Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of economicsandStatistics, 79(2), 212-218.
  • Massidda, C., &Etzo, I. (2012). The determinants of Italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis. Tourism Management, 33(3), 603-610.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2006). Are Australia's tourism markets converging? Applied Economics, 38(10), 1153-1162.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2007). Testing Convergence of Fiji’s Tourism Markets. Pacific Economic Review, 12:5, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00377.x
  • Ozcan, B., &Erdogan, S. (2017). Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unitroottests. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(4), 425-442.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223-232.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2014). Revisiting the convergence hypothesis of tourismmarkets: Evidence from South Africa. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 8(1), 77-92.
  • Solarin, S. A., &Lean, H. H. (2014). Nonlinearity convergence of tourism markets in Seychelles. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(6), 475-479.
  • Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2015). Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth? Tourism management, 46, 158-163.
  • Tang, C. F., &Abosedra, S. (2016). Does tourism expansion effectively spur economic growth in Morocco and Tunisia? Evidence from time series and panel data. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 8(2), 127-145.
  • Tugcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
  • Yilanci, V., &Eris, Z. A. (2012). Are tourism markets of Turkey converging or not? A Fourier stationary analysis. Anatolia, 23(2), 207-216.
  • Zivot, E., &Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of business & economic statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
  • Zuo, B., &Huang, S. (2017). Revisiting the Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis: The Case of China. Journal of Travel Research, 0047287516686725.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ali Eren Alper

Mehmet Demiral

Publication Date October 6, 2017
Submission Date August 15, 2017
Acceptance Date September 26, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 10 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Alper, A. E., & Demiral, M. (2017). Türkiye’nin Turizm Piyasaları İçin Yakınsama Hipotezinin Testi: Fourier Durağanlık Analizi Bulguları. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(4), 205-213. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.334736

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