Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi Uygulama Sürecinin Analizi: 2002-2016 Yılları Örneklemi

Year 2018, Volume: 11 Issue: 4, 93 - 105, 18.10.2018

Serdar Öztürk , Dilek Usanmaz

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.457200

Abstract

Ekonomi politikalarının nihai amacı ekonomik refahı arttırabilmektir. Ekonomik refahın arttırılabilmesi
gerekli olan temel unsurlardan biriside sürdürülebilir
büyümenin
sağlanabilmesidir. Bunun gerçekleştirilebilmesi
ekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasıyla mümkündür. Ekonomik istikrarın ön koşulu ise fiyat istikrarıdır.
21. yüzyılda, merkez bankalarının yaşadığı en önemli sorunlardan birisi ekonomik
istikrarı sağlayabilmek için para
politikasında hangi stratejinin izlenmesi gerektiğidir.
Enflasyon, ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal yapıyı tahrip eden ciddi bir sorundur.
Ülkeler tarihsel süreçte, yıllarca bu sorunla mücadele etmeye çalışmışlar ve sürekli farklı stratejiler geliştirmişlerdir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi, 1990’lardan sonra popüler
hale gelen bir stratejidir. Bu strateji resmi olarak ilk kez 1990 yılında
Yeni Zelanda tarafından uygulanmaya başlamıştır. Türkiye yaklaşık
30 yıllık bir süreçte sürekli
yüksek ve kronik enflasyon sorunuyla yani fiyat istikrarsızlığıyla mücadele etmek zorunda kalmış ve bu amaçla pek çok istikrar programı
uygulamıştır. Enflasyon
Hedeflemesi Stratejisinin gerek gelişmiş gerekse gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki uygulama sonuçlarının
olumlu olması TCMB’yi etkilemiş ve banka 2002 yılı başında para politikasında nihai hedefinin
enflasyon hedeflemesine
geçmek olduğunu açıklamıştır. Bu çalışmada önce enflasyon hedeflemesinin
kavramsal ve teorik çerçevesi anlatılmış daha sonra Türkiye’deki uygulama
süreci çoklu regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir.

The ultimate goal of economic policies can increase economic welfare. One
of the essential elements that can increase economic prosperity is to ensure
sustainable growth. This can only be achieved if economic stability is
achieved. Prerequisite of economic stability is price stability. In the 21st
century, one of the most important problems that central banks face is which
strategy should be monitored in monetary policy to ensure economic stability. Inflation
is a serious problem that destroys economic, social and political construction.
Throughout history, countries have tried to combat this problem for years and
have constantly developed different strategies. Inflation targeting is a
strategy that has become popular after the 1990s. His strategy officially began
to be implemented by New Zealand in 1990 for the first time. Turkey has been
forced to struggle with constant high and chronic inflation problems, that is,
price instability in a period of nearly 30 years and has implemented many
stabilization programs for this purpose. As the Inflation Targeting Strategy
both developed and developing countries have positive effects on CBRT, the bank
announced in early 2002 that its ultimate goal in monetary policy was to move
towards inflation targeting. Turkey has been implementing this strategy since
2002. In this study, the conceptual and theoretical framework of inflation targeting
is explained than the application process in Turkey were
examined by multiple regression analysis.

Keywords

Para Politikası, Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Yaklaşımı, Çoklu Regresyon Analizi

Analysis of The Inflation Targeting Strategy Implementation Process in Turkey: 2002-2016 Years Sample

Abstract

One of the essential elements for increasing economic prosperity is
sustainable growth. This can be achieved by ensuring economic stability and
thus price stability. Countries have tried to combat the problem of inflation
in the historical process and have developed different strategies on a
continuous basis. Inflation targeting is a strategy that has become popular
after the 1990s. His strategy officially began to be implemented by New Zealand
in 1990 for the first time. Turkey has about 30 -40 year period at a
consistently high and was forced to combat chronic inflation problem and apply
this purpose, many stabilization program. As the Inflation Targeting Strategy
both developed and developing countries have positive effects on CBRT, the bank
announced in early 2002 that its ultimate goal in monetary policy was to move
towards inflation targeting. Turkey has been implementing this strategy since
2002. In this study, the conceptual and theoretical framework of inflation
targeting is explained than the application process in Turkey were
examined by multiple regression analysis.

Keywords

Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting Strategy, Multiple Regresion Analysis

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