Türkiye Rezerv Yeterliliği: Rezervlerin İthalat Ve Kısa Vadeli Dış Borçlarla Karşılaştırılması Üzerine Bir Analiz

Year 2019, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 578 - 588, 18.10.2019

Esra N. Kılcı

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.579905

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Ülke
ekonomisinin finansal gücünün bir göstergesi olan ve uluslararası yatırımcılar
tarafından önemle dikkate alınan uluslararası rezervlerdeki değişimler, finansal
istikrar açısından büyük öneme sahiptir ve akademik literatürde yaygın şekilde
çalışılmaktadır. Ülkelerin rezerv yeterliliğinin hesaplanmasında, Uluslararası
Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından, uluslararası rezervleri, yıllık ithalatın %25’i
oranında belirtilen optimal rezerv seviyesi ve net uluslararası rezervleri,
kısa vadeli dış borç toplamıyla karşılaştırmak şeklinde iki geleneksel yaklaşım
kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2011:Ç3-2018:Ç4 döneminde Türkiye’de
uluslararası rezervlerin yeterliliğini, Enders and Jones (2016) tarafından
geliştirilen Fourier Granger nedensellik testini kullanarak araştırmaktır.
Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, ilk yaklaşıma göre rezervler yeteliyken, ikinci
yaklaşım dikkate alındığında rezervlerin yeterli olmadığı görülmektedir.

Keywords

ithalat, kısa vadeli dış borç, rezerv yeterliliği

Reserve Adequacy in Turkey: A Study on Comparison of The Reserves with Imports and Short-Term External Debt

Abstract

The
changes in the international reserves of a country, which reflect the financial
power of an economy and considered significantly by international investors,
are of great importance in terms of financial stability and are taken into
consideration increasingly in the academic literature. Two of the traditional criteria
used by International Money Fund to assess reserve adequacy is to compare the
international reserve level of a country with the optimal reserve amount, which
represents %25 of the annual imports and to compare net international reserve
level with shorterm external debt. The objective of this study is to
investigate the international reserve adequacy in Turkey over the period of
2011:Q3-2018:Q4 based on this approaches by employing Fourier Granger causality
test. The findings of the analysis indicate that while the reserves are
adequate in Turkey according to the first approach, the reserves seem
inadequate when taken into account the second approach in the relevant period. 

Keywords

reserves adequacy, import, short-term external debt

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