Dış borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme: gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında panel veri analizi

Year 2021, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 261 - 279, 08.01.2021

Halil Altıntaş Erdal Alancıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.765256

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı; 16 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 1991-2015 dönemleri arasında dış borç, sabit sermaye birikimi ve sanayi istihdamının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) ve Durbin-Haussman (2008) panel eşbütünleşme testleri ile analiz etmektir. Uzun dönem katsayıların hesaplanmasında Eberhardt ve Bond (2009) tarafından geliştirilen ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını göz önünde bulunduran AMG (Augmented Mean Group Estimator) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Analiz bulgularına göre, dış borç, sabit sermaye birikimi, sanayi istihdamı ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. AMG tahmincisinden elde edilen analiz bulguları panelin genelinde; dış borç ile ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif ve istatistiki olarak ve sabit sermaye birikimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanılmıştır. Buna karşılık, sanayi istihdamı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki tespit edilmemiştir.

Keywords

Dış borç, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Data Analizi

Supporting Institution

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Project Number

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Thanks

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External debt and economic growth: panel cointegration analysis under cross sectional dependency on developing countries

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the impact of external debt, capital stock and labor on economic growth over the period from 1991 to 2015 for sixteen developing and emerging countries. The panel cointegration tests suggested by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) and Durbin-Hausman (2008) were applied to explore the long run relationship between variables. In addition, this study used the augmented mean group (AMG) tests developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009) to provide long run estimators free from cross-sectional dependence problems. The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of the long run relationship between the underlying variables. Based on the AMG results, we found a negative and statistically significant impact of external debt on economic growth, while capital stock positively influences economic growth. On the contrary, labour does not have a significant impact on economic growth.

Keywords

External Debt, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis

Project Number

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