BRICS Ekonomilerinin Birincil Enerji Tüketimi için Trend Analiziyle Türetilen Tahmin Modelleri

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, dünya çapında BRICS olarak bilinen Brezilya, Rusya Federasyonu, Hindistan, Çin ve Güney Afrika ekonomilerinin birincil enerji tüketimleri (PEC) için 1985'ten 2023'e kadarki toplam nüfus (TP) ve birincil enerji tüketimleri (PEC) bağımsız ve bağımlı değişkenler olarak kullanılarak trend analizi tabanlı tahmin modelleri türetilmiştir. Türetilen modeller daha sonra çeşitli indisler ile istatistiksel olarak doğrulanmıştır. Aynı zamanda, türetilen modellerin tahmin doğrulukları da çeşitli hata göstergeleri kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Ek olarak, BRICS ekonomilerinin PEC’leri önerilen modeller kullanılarak 2025'ten 2035'e kadar tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, ilgili ekonomilerin gelecekteki PEC’lerinin önerilen modellerle başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edilebileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, tahmin sonuçları ilgili ekonomilerin gelecekteki PEC’lerinde önemli artışların beklendiğini açıkça göstermiştir.

Keywords

• Birincil enerji tüketimi
• Trend analizi Model
• Model
• Tahmin
• BRICS ekonomileri

Forecast Models Derived by Trend Analysis for the BRICS Economies' Primary Energy Consumption

Abstract

In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were derived for the primary energy consumptions (PECs) of Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa economies, known as the BRICS worldwide using total population (TP) and PECs as independent and dependent variables from 1985 to 2023. The derived models were then statistically verified by several indices. Forecasting accuracies of the derived models were also measured using various error indicators. Additionally, the PECs of the BRICS economies were projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future PECs of the related economies can be successfully projected with the proposed models. Moreover, the forecasting results make it abundantly evident that substantial rises are anticipated for the related economies' future PECs. It is thought that the study's results will allow the way for the proposal and establishment of sustainable strategies for controlling the PECs of the BRICS economies using the proposed methodology.

Keywords

• Primary energy consumption
• Trend analysis
• Model
• Forecast
• BRICS economies

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