Orta Karadeniz Bölgesi Yağış Değişimlerinin İstatistiksel ve Grafiksel Yaklaşımlarla Analizi

Year 2024, Volume: 7 Issue: 5, 2263 - 2283, 10.12.2024

Taner Mustafa Cengiz

Abstract

Hidrolojik değişkenlerin en önemlilerinden biri yağışlardır. Yağışın değişkenliğinin bilinmesi su yapılarının tasarım, yapım ve işletmesi açılarından hem de tarım için çok önemlidir. Bunun yanında, kuraklık analizlerinde de hidrolojik verilerin ve özelikle yağış değişkenliğinin belirlenmesi gereklidir. Hidrolojik değişkenlerin trend hesaplamaları gelecek ile ilgili yapılan çeşitli çalışmalarda önemli bir faktördür. Hidrolojik değişkenlerin zaman serilerinde meydana gelebilen tarihsel değişiklerin incelenmesinde çok sayıda istatiksel teknikler oluşturulup kullanılmaktadır. Klasik istatistiksel yöntemler incelenecek zaman serilerine ilişkin birçok varsayıma dayanmaktadır. Zaman serilerindeki değişikleri analiz etmek için kullanılan istatistiksel yöntemlerdeki varsayımları azaltmanın ve istatistiksel yaklaşım sonuçlarının daha güvenilir hale getirmenin bir yolu grafiksel ve istatistiksel yöntemlerin birlikte kullanılması olabilir. Bu çalışmada Orta Karadeniz bölgesinde bulunan Samsun, Ordu, Çorum, Amasya ve Tokat istasyonlarının 1960-2015 yılları arasında yıllık toplam yağış trend analizi hem klasik istatistiksel yöntem hem de grafiksel yöntemlerle yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla, tarihsel yağış değişikliklerini analiz etmek için klasik istatistiksel Mann-Kendall yönteminin yanı sıra veri noktalarının aşım ve aşım dışı sayıları arasındaki farkın rafine edilmiş kümülatif toplamı yöntemi, yenilikçi Şen ve Yenilikçi Şen’in modifiye edilmiş Yenilikçi Trend Değişim Kutuları grafik yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. İstatistiksel yöntem olan Mann-Kendall yönteminde tespit edilemeyen gizli trendlerin, kümülatif toplamı yöntemi ve Yenilikçi Trend Değişim Kutuları grafik yöntemleri ile değişik aralıklarda trendlerin belirlenebildiği görülmüştür. Yapılan çalışma sonucunda, grafiksel ve istatistiksel yöntemler arasında iyi bir eşleşme olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca grafik trend yöntemleri ile ekstrem yağışların yönelimlerinin daha detaylı bir şekilde incelenebileceği anlaşılmıştır. Bu çalışmada yağışlarda, özellikle verilerin değişkenliğinin çok olması halinde, bu yeni yöntemlerin farklı gruplardaki çeşitli trendleri daha hassas olarak belirleyebildiği anlaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Yıllık toplam yağış, grafiksel yaklaşım, Orta karadeniz bölgesi, yenilikçi trend değişim kutuları yötemi

Thanks

Bu çalışmada beni destekleyen Doç. Dr. Reşat Mutlu'ya çok teşekkür ederim.

Analysis of Precipitation Changes in the Central Black Sea Region with Statistical and Graphical

Abstract

One of the most important hydrological variables is precipitation. Knowing the variability of precipitation is very important in the design, construction and operation of water structures both in agriculture. In addition, it is necessary to determine hydrological data and especially precipitation variability in drought analyses. Many statistical techniques have been developed and applied to examine possible literal changes in the time series of hydrological data. Traditional statistical methods are based on a variety of assumptions about the time series to be studied. It may be possible to reduce the assumptions in statistical methods used to assess changes in time series and to increase the reliability of the statistical approach outcomes by combining graphical and statistical methods. One way to soften assumptions in statistical methods used to analyze changes in time series and to make statistical approach results more reliable may be to use graphical and statistical methods together. In this study, annual total precipitation trend analysis of Samsun, Ordu, Çorum, Amasya, and Tokat stations located in the Central Black Sea region between 1960 and 2015 was performed using both traditional statistical method and graphical methods. To this end, two graphical methods of the refined cumulative sum of the difference between exceedance and non-exceedance counts of data points and innovative trend analyses and innovative trend analyses change boxes along with the classical statistical Mann–Kendall method are used to analyze historical precipitation changes. It has been observed that hidden trends, that can’t be exposed in the Mann-Kendall statistical method, and trends in different intervals can be determined with the refined cumulative sum of the difference and innovative trend analyses change boxes graphic methods. The results show a good match between the results of the graphical and statistical methods. In this study, it was understood that these new methods can determine various trends in different groups more accurately in precipitation, especially if the variability of the data is high. As a result of the study, it was found that there is a good match well between graphical and statistical methods. In addition, it has been understood that the orientations of extreme precipitation can be studied in more detail with graphical trend methods. In this study, it was understood that these new methods can determine various trends in different groups more accurately in precipitation, especially if the variability of the data is high.

Keywords

Annual total precipitation, Central black sea region, Innovative trend analyses change boxes method

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