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Crude Oil Imports and Growth

Year 2019, Volume: 11 Issue: 18, 935 - 955, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.552784

Abstract

Petroleum is an energy source that has been considered as a crucial variable in defining the growth differences between countries, especially since the 20thcentury. According to the Factor Endowment (Heckscher-Ohlin) Theory in the international economics literature, a country has a comparative advantage in the production of those goods in which its abundant production factor is extensively used. Thus, while exporting those goods on which the country specializes, it imports those goods that are scarce.This theory basically emphasizes the economic growth of a country maintained by exporting those goods, that are produced in the sectors at which the country specializes in utilizing its abundantly endowed natural resources, to the countries where such resources are scarce.  Nowadays, some countries are crude petroleum exporters, whereas some others are importers.In this context, non-petroleum-exporting countries are importing petroleum for the continuity of their production process.There is an intense relationship between petroleum imports, which ensure the continuity of growth and growth rates.In this regard, the VAR (Vector Autoregression) model is utilized in the study over the period of 1997-2017 to analyze the extent of the relationship between the amount of imported petroleum and economic growth in Turkey. In this context; Granger Causality, Johansen Cointegration, Variance Decomposition, and Impulse-Response Analyses are performed.As a result of the conducted analyses, a long-term relationship between the variables is detected, and a unilateral causality running from economic growth towards petroleum imports relationship is found.

References

  • Altinay, G. (2007). Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35, 5829-5835.
  • Bostan, A. ve Ravanoğlu, A. (2018). Kırgızistan ekonomisinde ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketimi ilişkisi açısından sürdürebilir büyüme analizi. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 181-194.
  • Cheng-Yih, H. Ve Chen-Jung, H. (2018). Economic growth, oil consumption and import intensity: Factor decomposition of imported crude oil model approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 8, issue 4, pp.52-156.
  • Chien-Chiang L. ve Chun-Ping, C. (2007). The impact of energy con-sumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and non-linear models in Taiwan. Energy, Elsevier, 32(12), 2282-2294.
  • Çil Yavuz, N. (2005). Türkiye’de ihracat ve iktisadi büyüme arasında nedensellik analizi. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 49 (1), 961-972.
  • Ediger, V.S. ve Berk, I. (2011). Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968. Energy Policy, 39, 2132-2142.
  • Ghosh, S.(2009). Import demand of crude oil and economic growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37, 699-702.
  • Hong, C.Y. ve Hsu, C. J. (2018). Economic growth, oil consumption and import intensity: factor decomposition of imported crude oil model approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(4), 152-156.
  • Hyun Seok, K. ve Jungho, B. (2013). Assessing dynamics of crude Oil import demand in Korea. Economic Modelling, Elsevier, 35(C), 260-263.
  • Jabir, I. (2009). The dynamic relationship between the US GDP, imports and domestic production of crude oil. Applied Economics, 41, 3171-3178.
  • Kim, H.S. ve Baek, J. (2013). Assessing dynamics of crude oil import demand in Korea. Economic Modelling, 35, 260-263.
  • Lee, C.C. ve Chang, C. P. (2007). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan. Energy, 32, 2282-2294.
  • Marbuah, G. (2017). Understanding crude oil import demand behaviour in africa: The Ghana case. Journal of African Trade, 4, 75-87.
  • Özaytürk, G. ve Alper, A. E. (2017). Petrol ithalatının cari açık üzerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine bir analiz. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 72(3), 513-524.
  • Özturk, İ. ve Arısoy, I. (2016). An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach. Energy Policy, 99, 174-179.
  • Sun, X., Liu, C., Chen, X. ve Li, J. (2017). Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain. Energy, 121, 449-465.
  • Tiwari, A.K.(2015). On the dynamics of Indian GDP, crude oil production and imports. OPEC Energy Rewiev, 39(2), 162-183.
  • Uzunöz, M. ve Akçay, Y. (2012). Türkiye’de büyüme ve enerji tüketimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: 1970-2010. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(2), 1-16.
  • Yapraklı S. ve Kaplan, F. (2015). Re-examining of the Turkish crude oil import demand with multi-structural breaks analysis in the long run period. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(2), 402-407.
  • Zhang, C.P.,Cao, X.,Zhao, Y.N., Zhang, J. ve Yu, L. (2013). Rese-arch on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil ımport to China’s. 2013 International Conference on Management Science & Engineering (20th), July 17-19, 2013 Har-bin, P.R.China
  • Ziramba, E. (2010). Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis. Energy Po-licy, 38, 7844-7849.

Ham Petrol İthalatı ve Büyüme

Year 2019, Volume: 11 Issue: 18, 935 - 955, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.552784

Abstract

Petrol bir enerji kaynağı olarak özellikle 20. yüzyıldan itibaren ülkeler arası büyüme farklılıklarının açıklanmasında önemli bir değişken olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Uluslararası iktisat literatüründe yer alan Faktör Donatımı (Heckscher-Ohlin)  teorisine göre, bir ülke hangi üretim faktörüne zengin olarak sahipse, o faktörün yoğun biçimde kullanıldığı mallarda karşılaştırmalı üstünlük elde eder. Dolayısıyla uzmanlaştığı bu malları ihraç ederken, kıt miktarda sahip olduğu malları ithal eder. Bu teori temel anlamda bir ülkenin doğal kaynaklar bakımından üstün olduğu alanlarda üreterek uzmanlaştığı malları, bu kaynakların kıt olduğu ülkelere ihraç ederek büyümesini vurgulamaktadır. Günümüzde ham petrol bakımından bazı ülkeler ihracatçı konumdayken bazıları da ithalatçı konumdadır.  Bu bağlamda petrol kaynağı olmayan ülkeler üretimin devamlılığı için petrol ithali yoluna gitmektedirler. Büyümenin devamlılığını sağlayan petrol ithalatı ile büyüme oranları arasında sıkı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu bakımdan çalışmada Türkiye’de 1997-2017 dönemi için petrol ithal miktarı ile büyüme arasında nasıl bir ilişki olduğu VAR (Vektör Otoregresif Model) modeli kapsamında incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda Granger Nedensellik, Johansen Eşbütünleşme, Varyans Ayrıştırma ve Etki-Tepki Analizleri uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda değişkenler arası uzun dönemli bir ilişki ile büyümeden petrol ithalatına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulgulanmıştır.

References

  • Altinay, G. (2007). Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35, 5829-5835.
  • Bostan, A. ve Ravanoğlu, A. (2018). Kırgızistan ekonomisinde ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketimi ilişkisi açısından sürdürebilir büyüme analizi. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 181-194.
  • Cheng-Yih, H. Ve Chen-Jung, H. (2018). Economic growth, oil consumption and import intensity: Factor decomposition of imported crude oil model approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 8, issue 4, pp.52-156.
  • Chien-Chiang L. ve Chun-Ping, C. (2007). The impact of energy con-sumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and non-linear models in Taiwan. Energy, Elsevier, 32(12), 2282-2294.
  • Çil Yavuz, N. (2005). Türkiye’de ihracat ve iktisadi büyüme arasında nedensellik analizi. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 49 (1), 961-972.
  • Ediger, V.S. ve Berk, I. (2011). Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968. Energy Policy, 39, 2132-2142.
  • Ghosh, S.(2009). Import demand of crude oil and economic growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37, 699-702.
  • Hong, C.Y. ve Hsu, C. J. (2018). Economic growth, oil consumption and import intensity: factor decomposition of imported crude oil model approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(4), 152-156.
  • Hyun Seok, K. ve Jungho, B. (2013). Assessing dynamics of crude Oil import demand in Korea. Economic Modelling, Elsevier, 35(C), 260-263.
  • Jabir, I. (2009). The dynamic relationship between the US GDP, imports and domestic production of crude oil. Applied Economics, 41, 3171-3178.
  • Kim, H.S. ve Baek, J. (2013). Assessing dynamics of crude oil import demand in Korea. Economic Modelling, 35, 260-263.
  • Lee, C.C. ve Chang, C. P. (2007). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan. Energy, 32, 2282-2294.
  • Marbuah, G. (2017). Understanding crude oil import demand behaviour in africa: The Ghana case. Journal of African Trade, 4, 75-87.
  • Özaytürk, G. ve Alper, A. E. (2017). Petrol ithalatının cari açık üzerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine bir analiz. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 72(3), 513-524.
  • Özturk, İ. ve Arısoy, I. (2016). An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach. Energy Policy, 99, 174-179.
  • Sun, X., Liu, C., Chen, X. ve Li, J. (2017). Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain. Energy, 121, 449-465.
  • Tiwari, A.K.(2015). On the dynamics of Indian GDP, crude oil production and imports. OPEC Energy Rewiev, 39(2), 162-183.
  • Uzunöz, M. ve Akçay, Y. (2012). Türkiye’de büyüme ve enerji tüketimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: 1970-2010. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(2), 1-16.
  • Yapraklı S. ve Kaplan, F. (2015). Re-examining of the Turkish crude oil import demand with multi-structural breaks analysis in the long run period. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(2), 402-407.
  • Zhang, C.P.,Cao, X.,Zhao, Y.N., Zhang, J. ve Yu, L. (2013). Rese-arch on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil ımport to China’s. 2013 International Conference on Management Science & Engineering (20th), July 17-19, 2013 Har-bin, P.R.China
  • Ziramba, E. (2010). Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis. Energy Po-licy, 38, 7844-7849.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Zehra Doğan Çalışkan 0000-0002-7853-1966

Mehmet Çakmak 0000-0002-6128-5607

Publication Date June 30, 2019
Acceptance Date May 16, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 11 Issue: 18

Cite

APA Doğan Çalışkan, Z., & Çakmak, M. (2019). Ham Petrol İthalatı ve Büyüme. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 11(18), 935-955. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.552784