Siyah Kuğuyu Yönetmek

Year 2020, Volume: 15 Issue: 23, 2164 - 2177, 31.03.2020

Mehmet İnce , Onur Başar Özbozkurt

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.686105

Abstract

Tahmin edilemeyen ve risk analizi yapılmasına karşın öngörülemeyen olayları ifade eden “Siyah Kuğu”, Taleb (2007) tarafından literatüre kazandırılmakla birlikte dünya genelinde akademik anlamda dikkat çeken bir metafor haline gelmiştir. Ancak, Türkçe literatürde yeterli ilgiyi görmemiş ve herhangi bir bilimsel araştırmaya konu olmamıştır. Bu açıdan bu çalışma, özellikle Türkçe literatürdeki eksikliğin giderilmesi ve stratejik yönetim sürecinde dikkat edilmesi gereken siyah kuğuların doğru bir şekilde yönetilerek, yöneticilere yeni bir perspektif sunması amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bu çalışmada, risklerin planlanması ve yönetilmesinde, gerçekçi olmayan beklentilerden uzak durulması, olasılık alanlarının net bir şekilde belirlenerek stratejilerin bu yönde geliştirilmesi, siyah kuğulara karşı körlüğün oluşmaması için siyah kuğuların daima farkında olarak gerek iç gerekse dış çevre analizinin yapılması, dogmatik bir perspektif ile stratejilerin oluşturulmasından kaçınarak, her olasılığın meydana gelebileceği bilinciyle stratejilerin formüle edilmesi ve pozitif siyah kuğulara daima açık, negatif siyah kuğulara karşı ise proaktif davranarak gerekli önlemlerin alınması gibi hususların, siyah kuğunun stratejik yönetiminde önem arz ettiği görülmüştür.

Keywords

Siyah kuğu, siyah kuğu körlüğü, olasılık, belirsizlik, risk

Managing the Black Swan

Abstract

“Black Swan”, which refers to unpredictable and unforeseen events despite analyzing risks, has academically become a remarkable metaphor worldwide that was brought to the literature by Taleb (2007). However, the topic has received little attention in Turkish literature so far and has not been scientifically studied. In this regard, this study has been carried out within the purpose of being fulfilled a clear need of research specifically in Turkish literature and offered a new perspective to managers via appropriately managing black swans that is a noteworthy point in the strategic management process. For this purpose, it has been seen in the study that the matters such as being avoided unrealistic expectations, developed strategies via clearly determining and understanding of the space of possibilities in the planning and managing risks, analyzed both internal and external environment via being aware of black swans for preventing black swan blindness, formulated strategies within the awareness of taking into account every possibilities via avoiding the creation of strategies with dogmatical perspective, and open for positive black swans and taken necessary measures via behaving proactive to negative black swans have been remarked.

Keywords

Black swan, black swan blindness, probability, uncertainty, risk

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