The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been the focus of discussions for many years. On the other hand, the impact of country uncertainty on macroeconomic variables is one of the most popular topics of recent years. The purpose of this study is to empirically examine whether the impact of uncertainty on economic growth and financial development is changed according to the level of financial and economic development. As a sample quarterly time series data between January 1998 and December 2019 for Turkey were employed. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the long and short-term effects of the relevant variables were investigated. According to our results, the adverse effects of uncertainty on economic growth decrease in the short-run as the level of financial development increases. On the other hand, the level of economic growth does not cause any changes on the impact of uncertainty on financial development. Finally, Turkey shows demand-following behavior in the long term, while exhibiting supply-leading behavior in the short term. This finding can be interpreted as Turkey's financial system faces problems to determine the productive investments and funding them in the long-run. The results of our article provide valuable insight to policymakers by showing the role of the development and quality of the financial sector in reducing the negative effects of uncertainty.
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., ve Furceri, D. (2018). The world uncertainty index. Mimeo, http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf. Sitesinden alındı.
Aizenman, J. ve Marion, N.P. (1993). Macroeconomic uncertainty
and private investment. Economic Letters, 41, 207-210.
Akel, V., ve Gazel, S. (2014). Döviz kurları ile BIST sanayi endeksi
arasındaki eşbütünlelme ilişkisi: Bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Erciyes
Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 44, 23-41.
Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1996). Income distribution, political
instability, and investment. European Economic Review, 40, 1203-
1228.
Barro, R.J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross-section of countries.
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-443.
Barro, R.J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England
Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 407-443.
Bui, D. T. (2018). Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia:
Challenge or opportunity? Eurasian Economic Review, 1–18.
Caglayan, M., ve Xu, B. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty effects
on credit and stability of financial institutions. Bulletin of Economic
Research, 71, 342–347.
Calderon C. A. V., ve Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality
between financial development and economic growth. Journal of
Development Economics, 72, 321-334.
Chi, Q., ve Li, W. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and
banks’ lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial
banks. China Journal of Accounting Research, 10, 33–50.
Dickey, D.A., ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for
autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American
Statistical Society, 75, 427–431.
Dixit, A.K. ve Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty.
Princeton University Press.
Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-511.
Ghatak, S., ve Siddiki, J. (2001) The use of ARDL approach in
estimating virtual exchange rates in India. Journal of Applied
Statistics, 28, 573–583.
Gozgor, G., Demir, E., Belas, J., ve Yesilyurt, S. (2019). Does economic
uncertainty affect domestic credits? An empirical investigation.
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
63.
Grimes, A. (1991). The Effects of inflation on growth: Some
international evidence. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.
Im, K.S., Pesaran,M.H. ve Shin,Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in
heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
Jong-a-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability
and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political
Economy, 25, 15–29.
Karaman, K. K., ve Karaman, S. Y. (2019). How does financial
development alter the impact of uncertainty? Journal of Banking
and Finance, 102, 33-42.
King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993 a). Finance and growth: Schumpeter
might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 717-38.
King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993b). Finance, entrepreneurship, and
growth: Theory and evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32,
513-42.
Laurenceson, J., ve Chai, J.C.H. (2003). Financial Reform and
Economic Development in China. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
Lensink, B. W. (2001). Financial development, uncertainty and
economic growth. De Economist, 149, 299-312.
Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. Quarterly Journal of
Economics, 110, 681–712.
McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development.
Brookings Institution. Washington, DC, USA
Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in
underdeveloped Countries. Economic Development and Cultural
Change, 14, 174-189.
Pesaran, M.H. ve Pesaran, B. (1997), Working with Microfit 4.0. Camfit
Data Ltd, Cambridge.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing
approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied
Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
Robinson, J. (1952). The generalization of the general theory. Rate of
Interest and Other Essays içinde, London: Macmillan.
Sari, R., Ewig, B. T., ve Soytas, U. (2008) The Relationship between
disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the
United States: An ARDL Approach. Energy Economics, 30, 2302-2313.
Schumpeter, J.A. (1961). The theory of economic development.
Leipzig: Dunker and Humblot, 1912; çeviri REDVERS OPIE. Oxford
University Press.
Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development.
Oxford University Press, New York
Stock, J.H., ve Watson, M.W. (2003). Introduction to econometrics.
Addison Wesley, Boston.
Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Kalkınma Seviyesine Göre Belirsizliğin Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği
Year 2021,
Volume: 17 Issue: 37, 4429 - 4449, 31.05.2021
Finansal kalkınma düzeyi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, uzun yıllardır tartışmaların odağı halindedir. Ülke belirsizliğin makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisi ise son yılların ilgi gören konularının başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye örneklemi kullanılarak, finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme düzeyine göre ülke belirsizliğinin etksi ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Ocak 1998- Aralık 2019 zaman aralığındaki dönem için çeyreklerden oluşan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif modelden (ARDL) faydalanılarak, ilgili değişkenlerin uzun ve kısa dönem etkileri araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlarımıza göre kısa vadede, belirsizliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, finansal kalkınma düzeyi arttıkça azalmaktadır. Öte yandan, ekonomik büyümenin düzeyi, belirsizliğin finansal kalkınmaya etkisi üzerinde her hangi bir değişikliğe neden olmamaktadır. Son olarak, Türkiye uzun vadede talep-takibi davranışı gösterirken, kısa vadede arz-liderliği davranışı sergilemektedir. Bu bulgu, Türkiye’nin finansal sisteminin uzun vadede üretken yatırımları belirlemekte ve fonlamakta sorun yaşadığı şeklinde yorumlanabilir. Makalemizin sonuçları, finansal sektörün gelişmişliğinin ve kalitesinin, belirsizliğin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmadaki rolünü göstererek, politika yapıcılara önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., ve Furceri, D. (2018). The world uncertainty index. Mimeo, http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf. Sitesinden alındı.
Aizenman, J. ve Marion, N.P. (1993). Macroeconomic uncertainty
and private investment. Economic Letters, 41, 207-210.
Akel, V., ve Gazel, S. (2014). Döviz kurları ile BIST sanayi endeksi
arasındaki eşbütünlelme ilişkisi: Bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Erciyes
Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 44, 23-41.
Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1996). Income distribution, political
instability, and investment. European Economic Review, 40, 1203-
1228.
Barro, R.J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross-section of countries.
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-443.
Barro, R.J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England
Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 407-443.
Bui, D. T. (2018). Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia:
Challenge or opportunity? Eurasian Economic Review, 1–18.
Caglayan, M., ve Xu, B. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty effects
on credit and stability of financial institutions. Bulletin of Economic
Research, 71, 342–347.
Calderon C. A. V., ve Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality
between financial development and economic growth. Journal of
Development Economics, 72, 321-334.
Chi, Q., ve Li, W. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and
banks’ lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial
banks. China Journal of Accounting Research, 10, 33–50.
Dickey, D.A., ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for
autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American
Statistical Society, 75, 427–431.
Dixit, A.K. ve Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty.
Princeton University Press.
Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-511.
Ghatak, S., ve Siddiki, J. (2001) The use of ARDL approach in
estimating virtual exchange rates in India. Journal of Applied
Statistics, 28, 573–583.
Gozgor, G., Demir, E., Belas, J., ve Yesilyurt, S. (2019). Does economic
uncertainty affect domestic credits? An empirical investigation.
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
63.
Grimes, A. (1991). The Effects of inflation on growth: Some
international evidence. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.
Im, K.S., Pesaran,M.H. ve Shin,Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in
heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
Jong-a-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability
and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political
Economy, 25, 15–29.
Karaman, K. K., ve Karaman, S. Y. (2019). How does financial
development alter the impact of uncertainty? Journal of Banking
and Finance, 102, 33-42.
King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993 a). Finance and growth: Schumpeter
might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 717-38.
King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993b). Finance, entrepreneurship, and
growth: Theory and evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32,
513-42.
Laurenceson, J., ve Chai, J.C.H. (2003). Financial Reform and
Economic Development in China. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
Lensink, B. W. (2001). Financial development, uncertainty and
economic growth. De Economist, 149, 299-312.
Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. Quarterly Journal of
Economics, 110, 681–712.
McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development.
Brookings Institution. Washington, DC, USA
Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in
underdeveloped Countries. Economic Development and Cultural
Change, 14, 174-189.
Pesaran, M.H. ve Pesaran, B. (1997), Working with Microfit 4.0. Camfit
Data Ltd, Cambridge.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing
approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied
Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
Robinson, J. (1952). The generalization of the general theory. Rate of
Interest and Other Essays içinde, London: Macmillan.
Sari, R., Ewig, B. T., ve Soytas, U. (2008) The Relationship between
disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the
United States: An ARDL Approach. Energy Economics, 30, 2302-2313.
Schumpeter, J.A. (1961). The theory of economic development.
Leipzig: Dunker and Humblot, 1912; çeviri REDVERS OPIE. Oxford
University Press.
Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development.
Oxford University Press, New York
Stock, J.H., ve Watson, M.W. (2003). Introduction to econometrics.
Addison Wesley, Boston.
Uğurlu Yıldırım, E. (2021). Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Kalkınma Seviyesine Göre Belirsizliğin Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 17(37), 4429-4449. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.780239