Suriye-İsrail Barış Görüşmeleri: Olgunlaşma Teorisi Perspektifinden Bir Analiz

Year 2012, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 217 - 254, 15.07.2016

Berna Süer

Abstract

1990’lı yıllar boyunca ABD’nin arabuluculuğunda gerçekleşen Suriye-İsrail barış görüşmeleri bir anlaşma imzalanmaksızın 2000 yılında sona ermişti. Bu çalışma Suriye-İsrail arasındaki ikili görüşmelerin neden başarısızlıkla sonuçlandığını irdelemektedir. Konuyla ilgili önemli bir literatür vardır. Ancak bu literatürde göze çarpan eksiklik, konunun uyuşmazlıkların çözümü açısından yeterince incelenmediğidir. Var olan çalışmaların da daha çok ABD’nin etkili olamayan arabuluculuk rolü üzerine olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışma, uyuşmazlıkların çözümü literatürünün önemli bir kısmını oluşturan olgunlaşma teorisini kuramsal çerçevesi olarak kullanmaktadır. Makale Suriye-İsrail sorununun başarısızlıkla sonuçlanmasını, bu sorunun kendi dinamikleri içinde olgunlaşmadan çözülmeye çalışılmasına bağlamaktadır. Her ne kadar uluslararası ve bölgesel konjonktür çözüm için uygun olsa da ve dönemin süper gücü ABD arabulucu olarak süreçte yer alsa da, bunlar olgunlaşmamış Suriye-İsrail sorununu dönüştürmeye yetmemiştir

Keywords

Suriye-İsrail Sorunu, Suriye-İsrail Barış Görüşmeleri, Sorunların Dönüşümü, Olgunlaşma Teorisi

Syrian-Israeli Peace Negotiations: An Analysis From the Perspective of Ripeness Theory

Abstract

Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations with the US mediation in the 1990s ended in 2000 without an agreement. This article aims at analyzing the reasons behind the failure of the peace process between Syria and Israel. Indeed there is a few but important literature on the issue. However, this conflict has not been studied intensively from the perspective of conflict resolution. And the studies related to this field are mainly about the ineffective role of the US mediation in the process. Be aware of this gap, this article has used ripeness theory, which is a vital part of the literature on conflict resolution. It is argued that the Syrian-Israeli conflict was tried to be solved without ripening of this conflict and this led to the failure of the process at the end. Notwithstanding the appropriate international and regional context together with the presence of the US mediation, this unripe conflict could not be transformed into a good level

Keywords

Syrian-Israeli Conflict, Syrian-Israeli Peace Negotiations, Conflict Transformation, Ripeness Theory

References

• Al-Azm, Sadik J., “The View From Damascus”, The New York Review of Books, 15 Haziran 2000.(http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2000/jun/15/the-view fromdamascus/?pagination=false&printpage=true)
• Altunışık, Meliha & Çuhadar, Esra, “Turkey’s Search for a Third Party Role in Arab-Israeli Conflicts: A Neutral Facilitator or a Principal Power Mediator?”, Mediterranean Politics, Cilt 15, No. 3, Kasım 2010.
• Astorino-Courtois, Allison, Trusty, Brittani, “Degrees of Difficulty, the Effect of Israeli Policy Shifts on Syrian Peace Decisions”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Cilt 44, No. 3, Haziran 2000.
• Auerbach, Yehudith, “The Reconciliation Pyramid – A Narrative-Based Framework for Analyzing Identity Conflicts”, Political Psychology, Cilt 30, No. 2, 2009.
• Benli Altunışık, Meliha, “The Breakdown of the Post-Gulf War Middle East Order?”, Perceptions, Haziran-Ağustos 2001.
• _________________, “The Syrian Army: How Much of an Actor in Syrian Politics?”, The Review of International Affairs, Cilt 1, No. 3, Bahar 2002.
• Bercovitch, Jacob and Kadayıfçı, S. Ayşe, “Conflict Management and Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: the Importance of Capturing the “Right Moment””, Asia-Pasific Review, Cilt 9, No. 2, 2002.
• Brodsky, Matthew RJ, “From Madrid to Geneva: The Rise and Fall of the Syrian-Israeli Peace Process, 1991-2000”, Middle East Opinion (http://www.middleeastopinion.com/history-&-policy) Christopher, Warren, In the Stream of History, (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 1998).
• Cobban, Helena, Syria and the Peace: A Good Chance Missed, (Strategic Studies Institute, 1997).
• _____________, The Israeli-Syrian Peace Talks 1991-1996 and Beyond, (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1999).
• Cohen, Raymond, “Resolving Conflict Across Languages”, Negotiation Journal, January 2001.
• Coleman, Peter T., “Redefining Ripeness: A Social-Psychological Perspective”, Peace and Conflict, Cilt 3, 1997.
• Cordesman, Anthony H., “Military Balance in the Middle East VI, ArabIsraeli Balance-Overview, Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, Major Arms by Country and Zone and Qualitative Trends”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 24 Şubat 1999.
• Correlates of War Project, National Material Capabilities Data Documentation, Versiyon 4.0, (http://www.correlatesofwar.org)
• Çuhadar Gürkaynak, Esra, “Çatışma Ortamlarında Üçüncü Tarafların Uzlaştırma Amaçlı Müdahaleleri: Paralel Diplomasiye Eleştirel Bir Bakış”, içinde Nimet Beriker (der.), Çatışmadan Uzlaşmaya Kuramlar, Sü-reçler ve Uygulamalar, (İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, Aralık 2009).
• Daoudi, Riad, Türkiye-Suriye İlişkileri Atölye Çalışması, Siyasi ve Ekonomik Çalışmalar Merkezi, Şam, 10-11 Kasım 2010.
• Daoudy, Marwa, “A Missed Chance for Peace: Israel and Syria’s Negotiations over the Golan Heights”, Journal of International Affairs, Cilt 61, No. 2, 2008.
• Dawn, C. Ernest, “The Foreign Policy of Syria”, içinde L. Carl Brown (ed.), Diplomacy in the Middle East, (New York, London: I. B. Tauris, 2003).
• Diehl, Paul F., “What Are They Fighting For? The Importance of Issues in International Conflict Research”, Journal of Peace Research, Cilt 29, No. 3, 1992.
• Drysdale, Alasdair and Hinnebusch, Raymond, Syria and Middle East Peace Process, (New York: Council of Foreign Relations Press, 1991).
• El-Shazly, Nadia and Hinnebusch, Raymond, “The Challenge of Security in the Post-Gulf War Middle East System”, içinde Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Ehteshami (ed.), The Foreign Policies of the Middle East States, (London; Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002).
• Freilich, Charles D., “National Security Decision-Making in Israel: Processes, Pathologies, and Strengths”, Middle East Journal, Cilt 60, No. 4, Sonbahar 2006.
• Geller, Daniel S., “Power Differentials and War in Rival Dyads”, International Studies Quarterly, Cilt 37, 1993.
• Goldberg, Arthur J., “United Nations Security Council Resolution 242 and the Prospect for Peace in the Middle East”, UN Security Council Resolution 242: The Building Block of Peacemaking, (Washington, D.C.: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1993).
• Greig, Michael, “Moments of Opportunity, Recognising Conditions of Ripeness for International Mediation Between Enduring Rivals”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Cilt 45, No. 6, Aralık 2001.
• Haas, Richard, “Ripeness, De-escalation and Arms Control: The case of the INF”, içinde L. Kriesberg and S. Thorson, (ed.), Timing the De-escalation of International Conflicts, (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 1991).
• Halliday, Fred, “The Middle East, the Great Powers, and the Cold War”, içinde Yezid Sayigh and Avi Shlaim (ed.), The Cold War and the Middle East, (New York, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997).
• Hannah, John, At Arm’s Length: Soviet-Syrian Relations in the Gorbachev Era, (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1989).
• Hegre, Havard, “Gravitating toward War, Preponderance May Pacify, but Power Kills”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Cilt 52, No. 4, August 2008.
• Hermann, Margaret G., “How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Framework”, International Studies Review, Cilt 3, No. 2, Yaz 2001.
• Hinnebusch, Raymond A., “Does Syria Want Peace? Syrian Policy in the Syrian-Israeli Peace Negotiations”, Journal of Palestine Studies, Cilt XXVI, No. 1, Sonbahar 1996.
• Hinnebusch, Raymond, “The Foreign Policy of Syria”, içinde Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Ehteshami (ed.), The Foreign Policies of the Middle East States, (London; Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002). http://www.gpotcenter.org/dosyalar/CONFERENCE_REPORT.pdf
• Indyk, Martin, Innocent Abroad An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East, (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009).
• Jouejati, Murhaf, “A Syrian perspective on the Syrian-Israeli Track”, http://www.alhewar.com/DrMurhaf.htm
• Kamrawa, Mehran, “Military Professionalization and Civil-Military Relations in the Middle East”, Political Science Quarterly, Cilt 115, No. 1, Bahar 2000.
• Khashan, Hilal, “The Levant: Yes to Treaties, No to Normalization, Polling Arab Views on the Conflict with Israel”, Middle East Quarterly, June 1995. (http://www.meforum.org/248/the-levant-yes-to-treaties-no-tonormalization)
• Kienle, Eberhard, “Syria, the Kuwait War, and the New World Order” içinde Tareq Y. Ismael and Jacqueline S. Ismael (ed.), The Gulf War and the New World Order, International Relations of the Middle East, (Uni. Press of Florida, 1994).
• Knudsen, Erik L., “The Syrian-Israeli Political Impasse: A Study in Conflict, War and Mistrust”, Diplomacy & Statecraft, Cilt 12, No. 1, March 2001.
• Lieberfeld, Daniel, Talking with the Enemy, Negotiation and Threat Perception in South Africa and Israel/Palestine, (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999).
• Lochery, Neill, “The Netanyahu Era: From Crisis to Crisis, 1996-99”, Israel Affairs, Cilt 6, No. 3&4, Bahar/Yaz 2000.
• Mandell, Brian S., “Getting to Peacekeeping in Principle Rivalries Anticipating an Israel-Syria Peace Treaty”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Cilt 40, No. 2, Haziran 1996.
• Ma’oz, Moshe, “Hafiz al-Asad: A Political Profile”, Jerusalem Quarterly, Cilt 8, 1978.
• Ma’oz, Moshe, Syria and Israel from War to Peace Making, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995).
• Ma’oz, Moshe, “Can Israel and Syria reach Peace? Obstacles, Lessons and Prospects”, The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, Mart 2005
• Miller, R. Reuben, “The Israeli-Syrian Negotiations”, Mediterranean Quarterly, Cilt 11, No. 4, 2000.
• Mitchell, Christopher, “The Right Moment: Notes on Four Models of ‘Ripeness”, Global Society, Cilt 9, No. 2, Kış 1995.
• Muallem, Wallid, “Fresh Light on the Syrian-Israeli Peace Negotiations”, Journal of Palestine Studies, Cilt 26, No. 2, 1997.
• Mülakat, Alon Liel, Eski Dışişleri Müsteşarı, Tel Aviv, 6 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Amir Rapoport, Gazeteci, Tel Aviv, 7 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Efraim Inbar, Prof., BESA Başkanı, Bar-Ilan Üniversitesi, Tel Aviv, 14 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Ephraim Yaar, Professor, Arabuluculuk ve Uyuşmazlıkların Çözümü Programı Başkanı, Tel Aviv Üniversitesi, Tel Aviv, 16 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Itamar Rabinovich, Prof., İsrail’in ABD Büyükelçisi (1993-1996),
• İsrail’in Suriye ile Baş Müzakerecisi (1992-1995), Tel Aviv, 15 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Marwan Kabalan, Dekan, Şam Üniversitesi, 8 Kasım 2010,
• Mülakat, Mordechai Kedar, Prof., Bar-Ilan Üniversitesi, 9 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Moshe Ma’oz, Em. Prof., Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Kudüs, 13 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Muhammad Habbash, Milletvekili, Şam, 29 Mayıs 2008.
• Mülakat, Münir Ali, SANA, Şam, 7 Kasım 2010.
• Mülakat, Shlomo Brom, Araştırmacı, Ulusal Güvenlik Çalışmaları Enstitüsü, Tel Aviv Üniversitesi, Tel Aviv, 7 Aralık 2010
• Mülakat, Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, Prof., Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Kudüs, 13 Aralık 2010.
• Mülakat, Yossi Alpher, editör, bitterlemons.org, Tel Aviv, 15 Aralık 2010.
• Naff, Thomas, “Water in the International Relations of the Middle East: Israel and the Jordan River System”, içinde John Spagnolo (ed.), Problems of the Modern Middle East in Historical Perspective, (Oxford, Berkshire: Ithaca Press, 1992).
• Pressman, Jeremy, “Mediation, Domestic Politics, and the Israeli-Syrian Negotiations, 1991-2000”, Security Studies, Cilt 16, No. 3, Temmuz-Eylül 2007.
• Pruitt, Dean G., “Escalation and de-escalation in asymmetric conflict”, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, Cilt 2, No. 1, Mart 2009.
• Quilliam, Neil, Syria and the New World Order, (Reading: Ithaca Press, 1999).
• Rabil, Robert, “The Ineffective Role of the US in the US-Israeli-Syrian Relationship”, Middle East Journal, Cilt 55, No. 3, 2001.
• Rabil, Robert, Embattled Neighbours Syria, Israel, and Lebanon (London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2003).
• Rabinovich, Itamar, The Brink of Peace The Israeli-Syrian Negotiations, (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1998).
• _______________, Waging Peace Israel and the Arabs: 1948-2003, (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton Uni. Press, 2004).
• _______________, The View from Damascus, State, Political Community and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria, (London, Portland: Valentine Mitchell, 2008) .
• _______________, “From Deposit to Commitment: The Evolution of USIsraeli-Syrian Peace Negotiations, 1993-2000”, The View from Damascus, State, Political Community and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria, (London, Portland: Valentine Mitchell, 2008).
• _______________, “On Public Diplomacy and the Israeli-Syrian Negotiations During the Waning of Hafiz al-Asad’s Rule”, The View from Damascus, State, Political Community and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria, (London, Portland: Valentine Mitchell, 2008)
• Ross, Dennis, The Missing Peace, The Inside Story of the Fighting for Middle East Peace, (New York: Farra, Straus and Giroux, 2004).
• Rothman, Jay, Resolving Identity-Based Conflict, (San Francisco: JosseyBass Publishers, 1997).
• Rothman, Jay and Olson, Marie L., “From Interests to Identities: Towards a New Emphasis in Interactive Conflict Resolution”, Journal of Peace Research, Cilt 38, No. 3, 2001.
• Sagie, Uri, The Israeli-Syrian Dialogue: A One-Way Ticket to Peace?, The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University, Ekim 1999.
• Shad, Tahir I. and Boucher, Steven, “Syrian Foreign Policy in the postSoviet Era”, Arab Studies Quarterly, Cilt 17, No. 1-2, Kış/Bahar 1995.
• Shuval, H.I., “Are the Conflicts Between Israel and Her Neighbours Over the Waters of the Jordan River Basin an Obstacle to Peace? Israel-Syria As a Case Study”, Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Cilt 123, 2000. Slater, Jerome, “Lost Opportunities for Peace in the Arab-Israeli Conflict Israel and Syria, 1948-2001”, International Security, Cilt 27, No. 1, 2002.
• Telhami, Shible, “From Camp David to Wye: Changing Assumptions in Arab-Israeli Negotiations”, Middle East Journal, Cilt 53, No. 3, Yaz 1999.
• Tlass, Lieutenant General Mustafa, “Syria and the Future of the Peace Process”, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Cilt 6, No. 9, Eylül 1994.
• UN Security Council Resolution 242: The Building Block of Peacemaking, (Washington, D.C.: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1993).
• Yaar-Yuchtman, Ephraim and Herman, Tamar, The Peace Index, Temmuz 1997. Bakınız http://www.tau.ac.il/peace/
• Zartman, I. William, “Explaining Oslo”, International Negotiation, Cilt 2, No. 2, 1997. ________________, “Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond”, içinde Paul Stern and Daniel Druckman (der.), International Conflict Resolution after the Cold War, (National Academies Press, 2000).
• Zartman, I. William and Rubin, Jeffry Z., “The Study of Power and the Practice of Negotiation”, içinde I. William Zartman and Jeffry Z. Rubin (der.), Power and Negotiation, (The University of Michigan Press, 2000).
• Zartman, I. William, “The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments”, içindeJohn Darby and Roger MacGinty (der.), Contemporary Peacemaking, Conflict, Violence and Peace Processes, (Palgrave, 2003).
• Zisser, Eyal, Asad’s Legacy Syria in Transition, (London: C. Hurst & Co., 2001).
• _________, “The Syrian Army on the Domestic and External Fronts”, içinde Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney (eds.), Armed Forces in the Middle East Politics and Strategy, (London and New York: Routledge, 2002).
• Zunes, Stephen, “US Policy Hampers Chances for Israeli-Syrian Peace”, FPIF Policy Report, (15 Aralık 1999) (http://www.fpif.org/articles/us_policy_hampers_chances_for_israeli-syrian_peace)
• ___________, “The Peace Process Between Israel and Syria”, Foreign Policy in Focus, Cilt 7, No. 5, Mayıs 2002.