THE TANGENT OF THE SYRIAN UPRISING

Year 2014, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 8 - 26, 01.07.2014

Raymond Hınnebusch

Abstract

This article analyses the unique tangent of the Arab Uprising in Syria, namely one where Uprising did not lead to overthrow of a president, either through peaceful protest Tunisia, Egypt , or civil war Libya or some middle path Yemen , but rather after three years of civil conflict, president and regime remain standing, but the state has failed. While the vulnerability of the regime to the Uprising lay in structure-the flawed states system, a particular state building formulas, and the movement under global neo-liberalism, to “post-populism,” the paper explains Syria’s tangent as an outcome of the failure of mass non-violent protest to lead to democratic transition; the limits of the opposition and unexpected regime resilience; descent into the “security dilemma“ and an eternally-driven “war economy.”

Keywords

Syria, Uprising, non-violent protest, democratic transition, authoritarian resilience, security dilemma

SURİYE AYAKLANMASININ FARKLILIĞI

Abstract

Bu makalede, Arap Bahar’ının başlaması ile birlikte Tunus ve Mısır’daki gibi barışçıl protestolar yoluyla veya Libya’daki gibi iç savaşla ya da Yemen’deki gibi bu ikisinin arasında bir yolla yönetim değişikliğine giden ülkelerden farklı olarak iç çatışmaların, üç yılını doldurmasına ve çökmüş bir devlet yapısına rağmen ne rejim ne de lider değişimine uğrayan Suriye’nin kendine has farklılığı analiz edilecektir. Her ne kadar rejimin protestolar karşısındaki kırılganlığı işlemeyen devletler sistemi, belirli bir devlet inşa etme yöntemi ve küresel neo-liberailzm şemsiyesi altında post-popülizme kayan hareket gibi yapısal nedenlere dayansa da, bu çalışma Suriye’nin farklılığını şiddet içermeyen kitlesel protestoların demokrasiye geçişteki başarısızlığının; muhalefetin sınırlılıkları ve rejimin beklenmeyen direncinin ve olayların “güvenlik ikilemi ”ne ve ebedi bir “savaş ekonomisi”ne dönüşmesinin sonucu olarak açıklamaktadır

Keywords

Suriye, Ayaklanma, şiddet içermeyen protesto, demokratik geçiş, otoriter direnç, güvenlik ikilemi

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