THE TANGENT OF THE SYRIAN UPRISING

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 8 - 26, 01.07.2014

Raymond Hınnebusch

Öz

This article analyses the unique tangent of the Arab Uprising in Syria, namely one where Uprising did not lead to overthrow of a president, either through peaceful protest Tunisia, Egypt , or civil war Libya or some middle path Yemen , but rather after three years of civil conflict, president and regime remain standing, but the state has failed. While the vulnerability of the regime to the Uprising lay in structure-the flawed states system, a particular state building formulas, and the movement under global neo-liberalism, to “post-populism,” the paper explains Syria’s tangent as an outcome of the failure of mass non-violent protest to lead to democratic transition; the limits of the opposition and unexpected regime resilience; descent into the “security dilemma“ and an eternally-driven “war economy.”

Anahtar Kelimeler

Syria, Uprising, non-violent protest, democratic transition, authoritarian resilience, security dilemma

SURİYE AYAKLANMASININ FARKLILIĞI

Öz

Bu makalede, Arap Bahar’ının başlaması ile birlikte Tunus ve Mısır’daki gibi barışçıl protestolar yoluyla veya Libya’daki gibi iç savaşla ya da Yemen’deki gibi bu ikisinin arasında bir yolla yönetim değişikliğine giden ülkelerden farklı olarak iç çatışmaların, üç yılını doldurmasına ve çökmüş bir devlet yapısına rağmen ne rejim ne de lider değişimine uğrayan Suriye’nin kendine has farklılığı analiz edilecektir. Her ne kadar rejimin protestolar karşısındaki kırılganlığı işlemeyen devletler sistemi, belirli bir devlet inşa etme yöntemi ve küresel neo-liberailzm şemsiyesi altında post-popülizme kayan hareket gibi yapısal nedenlere dayansa da, bu çalışma Suriye’nin farklılığını şiddet içermeyen kitlesel protestoların demokrasiye geçişteki başarısızlığının; muhalefetin sınırlılıkları ve rejimin beklenmeyen direncinin ve olayların “güvenlik ikilemi ”ne ve ebedi bir “savaş ekonomisi”ne dönüşmesinin sonucu olarak açıklamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Suriye, Ayaklanma, şiddet içermeyen protesto, demokratik geçiş, otoriter direnç, güvenlik ikilemi

Kaynakça

• Chenoweth, Erica and Maria J. Stephan, “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, International Security, Vol.33, No:1, 2008, 7-44.
• Fromkin, David, A Peace to End All Peace; the Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East, (New York: Avon Books, 1989).
• Ghattas, Kim, “Syria’s spontaneously organised protests”, BBC News, 22 April 2011, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13168276
• Haddad, Bassam, “Why Syria Is Unlikely to be Next . . . for Now”, Sada, 9 March 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/09/why-syria-is-unlikely- to-be-next-.-.-.-for-now/6bhl
• Harling, Peter, “Syria’s Race against the Clock”, Foreign Policy, 11 April 2011, http:// mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/11/syrias_race_against_the_ clock
• Hassan, Abbas, “The Dynamics of the Uprising in Syria”, Arab Reform Brief, 51, October, 2011, p 9.
• Hinnebusch, Raymond and Tina Zintl, Syria: From Reform to Revolt: Politics and In- ternational Relations, (Syracuse NY: Syracuse University Press, 2014).
• Hinnebusch, Raymond, “Syria: from Authoritarian Upgrading to Revolution?” Inter- national Affairs, January 2012.
• International Crisis Group, ‘The Syrian People’s Slow Motion Revolution,’ Brussels and Damascus, 6 July 2011.
• Joya, Angela, “Syria and the Arab Spring: The Evolution of the Conflict and the Role of Domestic and External and Factors”, Ortadoğu Etütleri, Vol.4, No. 1, July 2012, 40–3.
• Kaldor, Mary, New and Old Wars: Organised Violence in a Global Era, (Oxford: Polity Press, 1999).
• Mandour, Maged, “Beyond Civil Resistance: The Case of Syria”, openDemocracy, 26 October 2013, www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/maged-man- dour/beyond-civil-resistance-case-of-syria.
• O’Donnell, Guillermo and Philippe Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, Part 4 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
• Posen, Barry, ‘The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict’, Survival, Vol.35, No. 1, Spring 1993.
• Seelye, Kate, “Syria Unrest ‘Cannot Be Contained’”, The Daily Beast, 28 March 2011, www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/03/28/syria-unrest-cannot-be-con- tained- dissidents-say.html.
• Worth, Robert, “The Price of Loyalty in Syria”, New York Times, 19 June 2013. Avail- able at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/23/magazine/the-price-of-loy- alty-in-syria.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=2&pagewanted=all&