Yenicegörüce Havzası’ndaki yağış-akış ilişkisinin HEC-HMS hidrolojik modeli ile belirlenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Ergene Nehri’nin Meriç Nehri ile birleştiği noktanın menbasında bulunan E01A012 – Yenicegörüce Akım Gözlem İstasyonu’nun (AGİ) alanı 10,508 m2 olan su toplama havzasındaki yağış-akış ilişkisinin A.B.D. Ordu Mühendisleri Birliği (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) tarafından geliştirilmiş olan HEC-HMS yazılımı kullanılarak belirlenmesidir. Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK tarafından desteklenen 115Y064 no’lu “Ergene Havzası Su Kalitesi Yönetimi İçin Kirletici Parmak İzine Bağlı Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi Bazlı Karar Destek Sistemleri Geliştirmesi” başlıklı projenin bir parçası olarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. İlk olarak havza ve civarında ölçülmüş olan günlük yağış ve sıcaklık gibi meteorolojik veriler ile günlük akış verileri toplanmıştır. Ardından havzanın arazi kullanımı, hidrolojik toprak grupları ve sayısal yükseklik verileri gibi havza karakteristiklerini gösteren veriler toplanmış ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi (CBS) ortamında derlenmiştir. CBS ortamında derlenmiş olan sayısal haritalar havzanın özelliklerinin belirlenmesi için WMS’e aktarılmıştır ve ardından havzaya ait HEC-HMS hidrolojik modeli kurulmuştur. Kurulan modelin, 1997-2002 arasındaki günlük veriler kullanılarak kalibrasyonu, 2003-2005 yılları arasındaki günlük veriler kullanılaraksa doğrulaması yapılmıştır. Kurulmuş olan hidrolojik modelin Yenicegörüce AGİ için Nash-Sutcliffe Etkinlik Katsayısı (NSE) kalibrasyon ve doğrulama aşamaları için sırasıyla 0.8 ve 0.75 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Yenicegörüce havzasının D01A008, E01A006 ve E01A012 AGİ’leri ile temsil edilen Hayrabolu, Lüleburgaz ve İnanlı alt-havzaları için de hidrolojik modeller kurulmuş ve kalibre edilmiştir. Model performansları NSE ve korelasyon gibi istatistiksel ölçütler kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

• Yenicegörüce Havzası,Hidrolojik model,Yağış-akış ilişkisi,HEC-HMS

Determination of rainfall-runoff relationship in Yenicegoruce Basin with HEC-HMS hydrologic model

Abstract

The goal of this study is to model rainfall-runoff process using HEC-HMS developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the 10,508 km2 catchment that has E01A012-Yenicegörüce stream gage at its outlet which is located just at the upstream of the point where Meric and Ergene Rivers meet. This study is conducted as a part of 115Y064 numbered “Development of a geographical information systems based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene watershed using pollutant fingerprints” project funded by TÜBİTAK. First, meteorological parameters such as daily precipitation and temperature, and daily streamflow data that are observed in and around the study catchment are collected. Then land use, hydrologic soil groups and digital elevation data of the catchment are collected and integrated into Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Digital maps compiled in GIS environment were transferred into WMS for the calculation of basin parameters, and then the hydrological model for the basin is developed in HEC-HMS using these data. The model is calibrated using daily streamflow values of 1997-2002 and validated for 2003-2005 data. The model results obtained at the Yenicegoruce stream gage has Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.8 and 0.75 for calibration and validation, respectively. Hydrological models for Hayrabolu, Luleburgaz and Inanli sub-catchments represented by stream gages D01A008, E01A006 and E01A012, respectively are developed and calibrated as well. Model performances are evaluated using statistical measures such as NSE values and correlations.

Keywords

• Yenigoruce basin,Hydrological model,Rainfall-runoff relationship,HEC-HMS

References

1. The Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources Hydrologic Engineering Center. “HEC-HMS”. http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-hms/ (01.07.2018).
2. Knebl MR, Yang ZL, Hutchison K, Maidment DR. “Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event”. Journal of Environmental Management, 75, 325-336, 2005.
3. Shahid MA, Boccardo P, Usman M, Albanese A, Qamar MU. “Predicting peak flows in real time through event based hydrologic modeling for a trans-boundary river catchment”. Water Resources Management, 31, 793-810, 2017.
4. Fleming M, Neary V. “Continuous hydrologic modeling study with the hydrologic modeling system”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 9(3), 175-183, 2004.
5. Gyawali R, Watkins DW. “Continuous hydrologic modeling of snow-affected watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin using HEC-HMS”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18(1), 29-39, 2013.
6. Halwatura D, Najim MMM. “Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation in a tropical catchment”. Environmental Modelling and Software, 46, 155-162, 2013.
7. Chu X, Steinman A. “Event and Continuous Hydrologic Modeling with HEC-HMS”. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 135(1), 119-124, 2009.
8. Chea S, Oeurng C. “Flow simulation in an ungaged catchment of Tonle Sap Lake Basin in Cambodia: Application of the HEC-HMS model”. Water Utility Journal, 17, 3-17, 2017.

9. Du J, Qian L, Rui H, Zuo T, Zheng D, Xu Y, Xu CY. “Assessing the effect of urbanization on annual runoff and flood events using an integrated hydrologic modeling system for Qinhuai River basin, China”. Journal of Hydrology, 464-465, 127-139, 2012.
10. Anderson ML, Chen ZQ, Kavvas ML, Feldman A. Coupling “HEC-HMS with atmospheric models for prediction of watershed runoff”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 7(4), 312-318, 2002.
11. Razi MAM, Ariffin J, Tahir W, Arish NAM. “Flood estimation studies using hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) for Johor River, Malaysia”. Journal of Applied Sciences, 10(11), 930-939, 2010.
12. Al-Zahrani M, Al-Areeq A, Sharif HO. “Estimating urban flooding potential near the outlet of an arid catchment in Saudi Arabia". Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 8(2), 672-688, 2017.
13. Yener MK, Sorman AU, Sorman AA, Sensoy A, Gezgin T. “Modeling studies with HEC-HMS and runoff scenarios in Yuvacik Basin, Turkey”. International Congress on River Basin Management, Antalya, Turkey, 22-24 March 2007.
14. Kocyigit MB, Akay H, Yanmaz AM. “Estimation of hydrologic parameters of Kocanaz Watershed by a hydrologic model”. International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 9(4), 42-50, 2017.
15. Kahraman AC, Özkul M, Marmara Belediyeler Birliği. “Koruma Eylem Planı. Durum Değerlendirme Raporu II”. İstanbul, Türkiye, 2018.
16. Özdemir, H. “SCS CN Yağış-akış modelinin CBS ve uzaktan algılama yöntemleriyle uygulanması: Havran Çayı Havzası örneği (Balıkesir)”. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 5(2), 1-12, 2007.
17. Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (CLMS). “EU-DEM v1.1”. https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/satellite -derived-products/eu-dem/eu-dem-v1.1 (01.07.2018).
18. Soil Conservation Service (SCS). “Hydrology, National Engineering Handbook, Supplement A, Section 4, Chapter 10”. Soil Conservation Service, USDA, Washington, DC, USA, 1985.
19. European Commission. “CORINE Land Cover”. Technical Guide, 1994.
20. European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC). “3D Soil Hydraulic Database of Europe at 1 km and 250 m resolution”. https://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu (01.07.2018).
21. United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service. “Part 630 Hydrology National Engineering Handbook. Chapter 7 Hydrologic Soil Groups”. 2007.
22. USDA. “Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds”. Technical Release, 55, 2-6, 1986.
23. GVC-FAO (2017) “GVC FAO Database”, http://www.gvcfao-database.org
24. Aquaveo, LLC. “WMS Downloads”. https://www.aquaveo.com/downloads-wms (01.07.2018).
25. Öztürk D, Batuk F. “SCS yüzey akış eğri numarasının uzaktan algılama ve coğrafi bilgi sistemleri ile belirlenmesi”. TUFUAB V. Teknik Sempozyumu, Antalya, Türkiye, 23-25 Şubat 2011.
26. Sælthun NR. Nordisk Ministerraad. “Climate Change Impacts on Runoff and Hydropower in the Nordic Countries: Final Report from the Project, Climate Change and Energy Production”. Copenhagen, Denmark, 1998.
27. St-Hilaire, A. “Floods in A Changing Climate: Hydrologic Modelling”. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 2014.
28. Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith, TL. “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations”. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 50(3), 885-900, 2007.
29. Santhi C, Arnold JG, Williams JR, Dugas WA, Srinivasan R, Hauck LM. “Validation of the SWAT model on a larve river basin with point and nonpoint sources”. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 37(5), 1169-1188, 20001.
30. Van Liew MW, Arnold JG, Garbrecht JD. “Hydrologic simulation on agricultural watersheds: Choosing between models”. Trans ASAE, 46(6), 1539-1551, 2003.