System dynamics modelling of bread waste problem

Abstract

Bread waste is a significant economic and environmental problem for many countries. In this paper, we propose a system dynamics approach for bread waste problem that involves significant complexities such as feedbacks and dynamic elements. System dynamics modelling is a simulation method that allows to model these complexities and investigate the impact of public policies on the system performance. We develop a system dynamics model of bread production and consumption dynamics within a geographical area. We design numerous computational experiments by using the related data from Istanbul, Turkey. The experiments suggest that the shelf life is the most important factor on the waste production: doubling the shelf life of the bread can reduce the bread waste by 25%.

Keywords

• system dynamics modelling
• food waste prevention
• bread supply chain

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