Prediction bike-sharing demand with gradient boosting methods

Year 2023, Volume: 29 Issue: 8, 824 - 832, 31.12.2023

Zeliha Ergül Aydın , Banu İçmen Erdem , Zeynep Idil Erzurum Cıcek

Abstract

The popularity of bike-sharing programs has increased the need for precise demand prediction techniques. In this work, the use of gradientboosting techniques to forecast demand for bike-sharing systems is studied. The gradient boosting algorithms XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost are used in this study to suggest an approach for predicting bike-sharing demand. Two real-world data sets were analyzed in this study, one for Konya and the other for Washington, D.C. Both datasets provide details about the day's particular characteristics and the weather. By using previous data to train a gradient-boosting model, we are able to make extremely precise predictions of future bike-sharing demand. CatBoost outperforms XGboost and LightGBM when all gradient boosting models are trained with the best hyperparameter sets.

Keywords

Bike-Sharing demand, Gradient boosting, Prediction, Machine learning

Gradyan artırma yöntemleriyle bisiklet paylaşım talebini tahminleme

Abstract

Bisiklet paylaşım sistemlerinin artan popülaritesi, talebi doğru tahmin etme ihtiyacını artırmıştır. Bu çalışma, bisiklet paylaşım sistemlerinde talebi tahmin etmek için gradyan artırma yöntemlerinin kullanımını araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla, XGBoost, LightGBM ve CatBoost gradyan artırma algoritmalarını kullanarak bisiklet paylaşım talebini tahmin etmek için bir yöntem önerilmektedir. Önerilen yöntem Konya ve Washington, D.C. olmak üzere iki gerçek dünya veri setine uygulanmıştır. Her iki veri setinde de hava koşulları ve günün belirli özellikleri gibi bilgiler yer almaktadır Geçmiş veriler üzerinde bir gradyan artırma modeli eğiterek, gelecekteki bisiklet paylaşımı talebine ilişkin son derece doğru tahminler yapılabilmektedir. Tüm gradyan artırma modelleri en iyi hiperparametre kümeleriyle eğitildiğinde; CatBoost, XGboost ve LightGBM'den daha iyi performans göstermiştir.

Keywords

Bisiklet paylaşım talebi, Gradian artırma, Tahminleme, Makine öğrenmesi

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